Fred Faour: Preakness picks and plays for Saturday's race
Saturday's Preakness Stakes features the return of Kentucky Derby standout Justify, as he tries to add the second leg of the Triple Crown to his brief resume. He was brilliant in Kentucky, and will take some beating in this spot. This field is smaller and not nearly as talented as the group he conquered in Kentucky. The key to making money will be getting a long shot or two behind him in the trifectas. So with that in mind, here we go:
2) Good Magic
3) Lone Sailor
4) Diamond King
The most likely scenario is also the worst from a betting standpoint. Justify likely takes command early, with Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold and perhaps Good Magic chasing. Justify pulls away, and Good Magic outfinishes the others for the favorites to run 1-2. So pucnhing a few 7-5 exactas is not a bad plan, just don't expect much return. I would also hit an exacta or two with Lone Sailor in second (7-2). As for the trifectas, there are three ways to approach the bets: A simple Justify over Good Magic over ALL play in hopes of getting a long shot in third. It's a cheap, $6 play for a $1 ticket. (7 with 2-5 with ALL).
We will also take Justify over Good Magic, Lone Sailor, Quip and Sporting Chance over Good Magic, Lone Sailor, Quip, Sporting Chance and Diamond King for $1. That is $16. 7 with 1-2-3-5 with 1-2-3-4-5.
Finally, we will do the .50 "Barbaro" trifecta, just in case something goes horribly wrong, keying Good Magic first and second with Justify, Lone Sailor and Quip with ALL. That is an $18 ticket, and covers if Justify wins, but also leaves open the possibility of huge payout if something goes wrong with him. (5 with 1-2-7 with ALL. 1-2-7 with 5 with all.
I would also consider playing some show and place bets on Lone Sailor.
Good luck with your wagers. We will make the real money at the Belmont.