HORSING AROUND
Fred Faour: Preakness picks and plays for Saturday's race
May 17, 2018, 8:08 pm
Justify will try to stay unbeaten. Santaanita.com
Saturday's Preakness Stakes features the return of Kentucky Derby standout Justify, as he tries to add the second leg of the Triple Crown to his brief resume. He was brilliant in Kentucky, and will take some beating in this spot. This field is smaller and not nearly as talented as the group he conquered in Kentucky. The key to making money will be getting a long shot or two behind him in the trifectas. So with that in mind, here we go:
The picks
1) Justify
2) Good Magic
3) Lone Sailor
4) Diamond King
5) Quip
The plays
All of our plays require a little knowledge of the game. If you have not picked up a copy of Acing Racing or Acing Racing 2016, we highly recommend it.
The most likely scenario is also the worst from a betting standpoint. Justify likely takes command early, with Quip, Diamond King, Tenfold and perhaps Good Magic chasing. Justify pulls away, and Good Magic outfinishes the others for the favorites to run 1-2. So pucnhing a few 7-5 exactas is not a bad plan, just don't expect much return. I would also hit an exacta or two with Lone Sailor in second (7-2). As for the trifectas, there are three ways to approach the bets: A simple Justify over Good Magic over ALL play in hopes of getting a long shot in third. It's a cheap, $6 play for a $1 ticket. (7 with 2-5 with ALL).
We will also take Justify over Good Magic, Lone Sailor, Quip and Sporting Chance over Good Magic, Lone Sailor, Quip, Sporting Chance and Diamond King for $1. That is $16. 7 with 1-2-3-5 with 1-2-3-4-5.
Finally, we will do the .50 "Barbaro" trifecta, just in case something goes horribly wrong, keying Good Magic first and second with Justify, Lone Sailor and Quip with ALL. That is an $18 ticket, and covers if Justify wins, but also leaves open the possibility of huge payout if something goes wrong with him. (5 with 1-2-7 with ALL. 1-2-7 with 5 with all.
I would also consider playing some show and place bets on Lone Sailor.
Good luck with your wagers. We will make the real money at the Belmont.
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The NFL Draft, NBA playoffs, and NHL playoffs all dwarf baseball in the sports pecking order this week, but that doesn’t detract from the Astros playing their best stretch of baseball in the still young season. Following up taking two of three from the previously sizzling hot Padres by sweeping the Blue Jays three straight has the Astros’ record at a just fine 13-11 as they open a three-game weekend series in Kansas City. 13-11 may not sound special, because it isn’t, but having come home from St. Louis last week with the record at 8-10 makes 13-11 a quality leap. Plus, a 13-11 pace over 162 games extrapolates to 87 wins, which last season were enough to win the American League West and for an AL Wild Card spot.
Batter up!
While no one will be confusing the potency of this Astros’ lineup with those of the 2017 or 2019 juggernauts, some welcome perking up may have kicked in, despite Yordan Alvarez still not getting rolling. After Joe Espada gave Christian Walker a “mental rest” game off Monday, Walker produced a three-hit game Tuesday and a two-hit follow-up Wednesday, including a home run. Walker’s .202 batting average and .640 OPS are still lousy, but a much lesser grade of lousy than the statistical abyss he was in starting the Toronto series. Yainer Diaz has been much worse than Walker to this point. Diaz managed at least one hit in all three games of the Jays series. Baby steps. He is still sitting on an unacceptable three walks in 78 plate appearances.
Speaking of hits and walks, Jeremy Pena carries a 14-game hitting streak into the weekend. One-quarter of the way to Joe DiMaggio’s big league record! Willy Taveras set the Astros’ record with a 30-gamer back in 2006. Pena hasn’t been crushing it during the streak, during which he has just two multi-hit games. He’s had stretches where he has hit better and slugged harder (2022 postseason anyone?), but while too small a stretch to declare a leap has been made, it is noteworthy that over the 14 games Pena has drawn six walks. That gives him eight free passes in 24 games this season. More math fun! That’s one walk drawn per three games, which over 162 games would make for 54. Last season in 157 games played Pena drew a paltry 25 walks. Add in that his defense has been superb so far this season with a number of fabulous plays made and just one error committed, and Pena could be making modest offensive improvement that makes him a meaningfully better player.
Furthermore speaking of hits and walks, it’s been a struggle on both fronts the last couple of weeks for Jose Altuve. A two-week funk does not represent a crisis, but there are troubling trends that bear watching as Altuve sets to turn 35 years old May 6. Over his last 14 games, Altuve’s OPS is a sub-Maldonadian .547. In this stretch he has two doubles as his lone extra base hits and drawn just two walks. Altuve has struck out 22 times in 24 games. Setting aside the short 2020 COVID season when Altuve never got it going, last year he had the worst strikeout percentage of his career, while his walk rate was his worst since 2015. So far this season, Altuve’s strikeout rate is more than 20 percent worse than last year’s, with his walk rate down 30 percent from 2024. He is hitting line drives at a much lower rate than ever before, and struggling to get the ball in the air. The season still isn’t 20 percent old, but since Altuve last season finished with his lowest OPS (.790, again, exempting 2020) since 2013, and his current .728 OPS is 62 points lower than that, the antennae of at least mild concern are up. This is the first season of Altuve’s five-year 125 million dollar contract extension. Remember, the Astros would not offer Kyle Tucker a contract that took him to age 35.
Bringing the heat!
Hunter Brown makes his next start Sunday in Kansas City. Good luck Royals! Until getting a doubleheader against the pathetic Rockies Thursday, K.C. was averaging under three runs per game. Brown's earned run average through five starts is 1.16! It's waaaaay early to focus on this, but the best season ERA for an Astro pitcher who qualified for the statistical lead (one inning pitched per team game played) belongs to Nolan Ryan who posted a 1.69 in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Over a full-schedule season, Justin Verlander's 1.75 in 2022 is the standard. Brown has fired 24 consecutive shutout innings. Ryan Pressly holds the Astros’ record with 38 consecutive scoreless innings pitched. Orel Hershiser set the Major League record by finishing the 1988 regular season with a ridiculous 59 straight shutout innings. Yes he won the National League Cy Young Award. The Cy Young is strictly a regular season award. Hershiser in 1988 also won the League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award, and World Series MVP.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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