The right man?
Fred Faour: Texans have a lot of questions, but no one is talking about the biggest one
Jul 30, 2018, 8:12 am
It's time for Bill O'Brien to prove himself. Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images
As the Texans navigate their way through the early stages of camp, the big stories and question marks are obvious.
Can the revamped offensive line perform at an even mediocre level?
Do they have enough a running back if D’Onta Foreman is not ready to start the season?
Can J.J. Watt return to any semblance of his former self?
Will the rebuilt secondary help the Texans improve on last season’s defensive disaster?
And, most importantly, can Deshaun Watson stay healthy and perform at a level close to what we saw in his brief but magical run last season?
Fair questions all, and each has been and will continue to be debated until the season begins and likely beyond.
But perhaps the biggest question -- and one that seems to be flying under the radar -- involves the head coach, Bill O’Brien. Actually, it’s more than one question. Is he even the right man for the job? Can he improve some obvious holes in his game? And perhaps most critical -- is he even a good coach?
O’Brien’s record in four years is 31-33. Last year’s 4-12 disaster skewered the results somewhat after three straight 9-7 marks, but a four-year sample size is fair enough. O’Brien defenders will point to the revolving door at quarterback, which is fair, but he hand picked all of those players.
He came to town with a reputation as an offensive guru, yet his offenses have ranked 17th, 19th, 29th and 20th in yards, respectively. While not an all-inclusive stat, it still matches up with the other relevant offensive stats. Essentially, under O’Brien, the Texans have not even had an average NFL season offensively, ranging from slightly below league average to downright awful.
In addition, his game management has often left a lot to be desired. Conservative playcalling late cost the Texans potential wins against New England and Seattle last season, and that has been a common theme throughout his career.
His hires -- a major part of being a head coach -- have been dicey as well. Romeo Crennel was a terrific pickup at defensive coordinator, but “promoting” him last season so that Mike Vrabel could become DC was an unmitigated disaster. The Texans were lucky the Titans hired Vrabel to be head coach, because they could erase their mistake by bringing back Crennel.
Special teams have been awful every year. And George Godsey had to be jettisoned as a sacrificial lamb as offensive coordinator since O’Brien could not fire himself.
And yes, injuries certainly have played a part, but his reputation as a guy who could develop quarterbacks has been pure fiction.
In public he comes off as an arrogant, stand-offish bully, and he hardly paints a picture of stability. Those close to O’Brien say he is not like that, but his public displays scream otherwise.
Throw in all the leaked stories from his camp about other teams being interested in him to instigate a power struggle with former GM Rick Smith, and there really isn’t much positive to say about the man in charge.
Yet his offense under Watson was amazing, and gave the impression of what could be this season, hence a contract extension. He also has a new general manager in place that he is presumably on the same page with. He won his power struggle, and now is out of excuses.
Coaches, like players, can grow and develop. So far, O’Brien has shown little of that. Giving the defense back to Crennel should help on that side of the ball. Hiring yet another special teams coach may or may not help. Improved playcalling and game management in critical situations by O'Brien himself is a must for the Texans to be successful. This season will be critical for O'Brien to prove he is more than just talk and fake reputation and can be the coach Texans fans hope he can become.
Having said all that, coaches and quarterbacks get too much blame for poor performances and too much credit for wins. If Watson is what he showed us, he can cover up a lot of O’Brien’s failings.
If not, can O’Brien cover up Watson’s?
That might be the biggest question facing these Texans in 2018, and one no one is talking about.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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