FREE AGENT FRENZY

Fred Faour: Texans trying to sign Solder comes with questions, but do they really have a choice?

Fred Faour
Mar 12, 2018, 8:24 am
Nate Solder is a big free agent target. Bob Levey/Getty Images

It is a big day in the NFL, where teams can officially begin pursuing free agents. The Texans will be in the market at several key positions, and as Joel Blank wrote today, it will be a big test for new Texans GM Brian Gaine.

The Texans enter free agency with plenty of cap space (overthecap.com has a nice breakdown here) and the potential for more if they rid themselves of guard Jeff Allen, who has been a free agent bust.

And that is the biggest concern heading into free agency. You have to overspend and pay somebody big money for something they did for some other team. It’s worked out for the Texans in the past with Jonathan Joseph, Danieal Manning and more recently Lamar Miller.

It has also failed miserably. Ahman Green, Ed Reed, Allen...And the late, not so great Ostrich, Brock Osweiler -- the gold standard for free agent failure. And while this will be Gaine’s first rodeo with the Texans as the main guy, those past failures and successes should be learning experiences.

Teams that “win” free agency rarely win on the field. Remember the Giants spending money like crazy a couple years ago? The Dolphins? The Jaguars did it last season, and it finally paid off. But they drafted well, then added key pieces over a two-year span. The Texans should be in a similar situation, so adding the right pieces could pay off for them, too, if those pieces come at the right price. You can overpay for one or even two free agents if you add some quality players at more affordable deals as well. The Texans most glaring needs are on the offensive line and in the secondary. There are many viable bargains to be had in the secondary, but the offensive line group is much thinner, which is why Allen is probably still on the roster as an expensive and ineffective insurance policy.

Which brings us to the player everyone keeps linking to the Texans: Patriots left tackle Nate Solder, the sexiest name among available tackles.

Would it be the right move to sign him? Let's assume the Texans actually have a chance to lure him, which is a strong presumption, as he could easily wind up back in New England or elsewhere. But if they do have a shot, there are reasons for pause. He is about to turn 30 years old and will command top-five-at-the-position kind of money. This despite the fact that he has never even made the Pro Bowl. That and the rarity of players leaving New England and actually improving on their production makes signing Solder a serious question mark.

However, he would be a significant upgrade over the revolving door of garbage the Texans trotted out last year. They were reluctant to spend money at the position in free agency in 2017, because the available tackles were all overpriced. Guess what? New year, same issue.

Realistically, the Texans need a minimum of three new offensive linemen -- two new starting tackles and at least one new guard, preferably two. If they can get three quality players and have to overspend to do it, so be it. They can find bargains in the secondary, and the second-tier signings can often turn out to be just as critical as the flashy ones.

But with all that to do, does paying Solder top five money make sense? If you can get fellow Patriot free agent Cameron Fleming at a more viable price, would it make more sense to go that direction? Fleming is only 26 and has upside. But he is also probably the No. 2 tackle available, which means that “more viable price” is not very likely. And it is doubtful New England would let both walk.

Once you get past the two Patriots and Chris Hubbard of the Steelers, the drop-off is precipitous. The reality is you just will not find star tackles in free agency. You can find pretty good/above average that you have to pay like stars. The Texans find themselves in that position. Again. And while Solder might not be the answer, the Texans are pretty much committed to trying.

It might not be a smart move, but it is undeniably necessary to make the effort.

On to the dance

The Houston Cougars gave Cincinnati all it wanted in the finals of the AAC Tournament, ultimately losing 56-55. But the Cougars are still in the NCAAs. We wrote about Kelvin Sampson and this group last week, and nothing has really changed since then with the exception of adding a second win against Wichita State in a run to the conference title game.

Their bracket is interesting. They are a No. 6 seed and face San Diego State in Round 1, which is a sneaky tough matchup. If they get past that, it would most likely be against a beatable Michigan in Round 2. So the stage is set for UH to make some noise and at least win a tournament game for the first time since 1984.

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KYLE TUCKER DEEP DIVE

Here's what the Astros should expect from Kyle Tucker after his breakout season

Tucker looks like the real deal. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images

Kyle Tucker finally had his breakout season in 2020. The 23-year-old flashed potential to be a legitimate five-tool threat. He slashed .268/.325/.512, swiped eight bags, and played above average defense. Is Tucker's performance sustainable? Not only that, but is there room for growth?

Hard Hit % - 44.5%

Barrel % - 9.1%

K % - 20.2%

BB % - 7.9%
Chase % - 26.2%

The first thing to realize with Kyle Tucker is the small sample size at the MLB level. Despite appearing in three separate seasons, he's played in a total of 108 games, which is obviously quite a bit shy of even one full season. He also has an extremely unique swing that you wouldn't teach to anybody, but it "works" for him. This makes him a tough hitter to judge, as it's uncomfortable judging mechanics that work for him, and it's uncomfortable judging numbers that haven't had time to develop trends.

Hard Hit, Barrel, and Chase numbers are unavailable for the minors, but walk and strikeouts percentages are. This creates the ability to at least look at one trend.

Tucker broke onto the scene in 2018 with a monstrous season for AAA Fresno, the Astros affiliate at the time. In 2018, Tucker slashed .332/.400/.590 with 24 homers and 20 steals. He had an 18.1% K% and a 10.3% BB% that season. In 2019, Tucker struck out a little bit more (21.6%) but also walked a little bit more (11.2%). Tucker's 20.2% K% in 2020 is more in line with his minor league K%, indicating he's adjusted to major league pitching.

Tucker essentially put the pieces of contact ability and quality of contact from his previous MLB stints together in 2020. In 2018, Tucker didn't strike out very much (18.1% K%), but his 3.9% Barrel % didn't strike fear in any opponent.

In 2019, Tucker had a 12.8% Barrel %, and his 92 MPH average exit velocity is the best of his three seasons in MLB, but he struck out 27.8% of the time and walked just 5.6% of the time.

In 2020, there's a marriage between the two. His K% and BB% aren't as good as his 2018 marks, but they're better than his 2019 marks. His exit velocity and Barrel % aren't as good as his 2019 marks, but they're better than his 2018 marks. Tucker became a hitter that was able to do more damage without sacrificing consistency.

Tucker had a xBA of .267, which is right in line with his .268 average. His .459 xSLG lags behind his .512 actual SLG, but it isn't a catastrophic drop. The version of Tucker Astros fans saw is essentially who he is, but how does he improve?

What really unlocked Tucker in 2020 was a change in his setup.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Here he is on August 2nd against the Angels. As you can see, he's standing pretty straight up, and he has a "neutral" stance. Following the game on Aug. 2, Tucker was batting .200/.250/.300 with no homers.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Here's Tucker on August 6th, just a few days later. He's started to close off his stance just a bit, but he's still pretty neutral, and he has a little more forward body lean with his torso. Following the game on Aug. 6, he was batting .214/.267/.357 with a homer.

Image via: GraysonSkweres/Twitter/Screenshot

Now, here's Tucker on August 10th. His stance is considerably closed off, and he's maintaining the forward body lean he adopted on August 6th. Following the game on Aug. 10, Tucker was batting .190/.230/.328. It would be the last time any of those numbers would be that low the rest of the year. He maintained that stance for the rest of the season, and he finished the month of August hitting .272/.333/.588.

The swing change allowed him to be a factor on the outside pitch. Tucker would pull off on his front side, which made it tough for him to keep balls fair on the pull side. He'd often yank inside fastballs into the stands down the right field line. It also made him uncompetitive on outside strikes, as he'd either swing-and-miss, or roll them over into the shift.

After he made the change, Tucker started steering inside pitches fair, and he was able to do something with pitches on the outer third.

The next step is finding a way to continue to diversify his batted ball profile. Tucker's pull percentage in 2020 was 47%. That's a higher pull % than guys like Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson. It was only 1% lower than Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo.

The one dimensional batted ball profile allows teams to shift Tucker aggressively. Teams shifted Tucker in 74% of his at-bats. His wOBA against the shift is .304. In AB's where teams didn't shift him, Tucker had a .455 wOBA. The shift hurts Tucker more than most as well, because he hits the ball on the ground 39% of the time. Gallo and Olson hit it on the ground 32% and 35% of the time respectively.

Lastly, Tucker's performance on breaking balls leaves a lot to be desired. He crushes fastballs, as he batted .303 with a .574 SLG against fastballs in 2020, with a .292 xBA and .528 xSLG. His .208 AVG and .396 SLG against breaking balls aren't very good, and his .209 xBA and .340 xSLG don't tell a prettier story. His 32% whiff % against breaking balls is nearly double his whiff % on fastballs.

If Tucker can learn to be more competitive against breaking balls and learn to use the whole field, then he'll be a really scary hitter. If he doesn't, teams will be able to gameplan for him, and he'll see streaky production similar to other one dimensional hitters like Matt Carpenter and the aforementioned Gallo and Olson.

While the bat may be streaky, Tucker brings it with the glove and on the bases. He had 5 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) in the outfield in 2020, a 0.6 UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), and he was plus-4 in Outs Above Average. His well above average speed and instincts give him the ability to be a rangy outfielder and dangerous baserunner.

Tucker had a breakout season in 2020, but there's still changes left to be made if he wants to be a breakout star and not a one hit wonder.

This is part four of an offseason series covering the 2020 Houston Astros. Be sure to check out parts 1-3 on SportsMap.

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