PLAYING THE PONIES
Fred Faour's selections for Friday at Sam Houston Race Park -- plus a bonus play on Saturday's Pegasus World Cup
Jan 26, 2018, 12:16 pm
It's Day 4 of the Sam Houston Race Park thoroughbred meet with nine races tonight. Here are my selections for the card. These are not meant to be in exact order, but merely the four horses I think have the best chance to win. For beginners, I suggest exacta boxes with three horses, using two of mine and one of your own. And you can always pick up a copy of Acing Racing 2016 to learn everything you need to know. (These are the picks and format that are available on the free tip sheet at SHRP). Also, the Blitz is broadcasting live at the track today from 4-7 p.m. Drop by and say hello. However, before we get to the Sam Houston picks, the richest race in the world will be run at Gulfstream on Saturday and if you are looking for a play...
The race will be the final one for future Hall of Famer Gun Runner, who is the 4-5 favorite. He inherited the Best Horse in the World title when Arrogate returned from his Dubai World Cup win and was never the same. Gun Runner has won four in a row and six of his last seven, with only the second in Dubai to Arrogate tarnishing his record. He is a hard horse to root for, because his trainer is unlikeable, but that's not the horse's fault and does not tarnish his briliiance. He beat most of these in his last race, the Breeders' Cup Classic. But there are reasons to play against him here. Gulfstream is a quirky surface, he drew a tough post and will face serious early pace pressure. All that said, he is clearly the horse to beat. However, we will take a shot with No. 6 Gunnevera at 15-1. He loves Gulfstream, will be rolling late and could turn the tables on some of the horses that beat him in the Classic (he was fifth that day).
Cost will vary based on your bankroll, but we will base these plays on $2 exactas so you can get out light. Feel free to increase the wagers based on your personal budget (or go with $1 exactas if you are limited). We will do a $5 exacta box with Gunnevera and Gun Runner in case the big dog comes to play. If he doesn't, we will pick up a nice score wheeling Gunnevera in the exactas with every possible contener for $2: 6 with 2-4-5-7-9-11-12 and 2-4-5-7-9-11-12 with 6. That will cost $28 and your total outlay is $38. You could also consider playing him first and second in the trifectas with the 2-9-10-11 in second and 2-4-5-7-9-10-11-12 in third. (The second bet would be 2-9-10-11 with 6 with 2-4-5-7-9-10-11-12. For .50, those two bets come out to $28. Good luck on your plays.
FIRST
3-8-7-6
BIG CORK catches the easiest field he has seen in a while
SECOND
4-5-1-2
MOSTA FLYIN should be in a good spot to break through
THIRD
6-9-8-2
UNBRIDLED ENCORE is consistent but will need his best effort
FOURTH
5-6-2-3
OH FLO is well bred and could surprise at first asking
FIFTH
10-12-1-6
ARCH OF AGES drops in for a tag for the first time
SIXTH
2-1-7-8
DRINKIN SONG should be competitive at this distance
SEVENTH
5-10-7-6
REAL DE JALPA should be in the mix if she runs back to her Arlington turf form
EIGHTH
4-5-1-2
SELFIE SENSATION was sharp in last and will be tough
NINTH
11-3-2-4
CALF CREEK BULLDOG drops in for a tag and should improve
By any measure, from the official statistics to the informal eye test, top-ranked Texas' defense has been dominant.
The Longhorns rank No. 1 in total defense and scoring defense. They are top 10 in first downs allowed, tackles for loss and passing yards. Much of that is built against opponents starting former walk-on quarterbacks ( Michigan ) and freshmen ( Mississippi State and Oklahoma.)
But the level of quarterback play Texas will face, in both talent and experience, is about to get much better over the second half of the season.
Texas hosts No. 5 Georgia on Saturday night in the first matchup of top five teams in Austin since 2006, before playing the next week at Vanderbilt. Bulldogs senior Carson Beck was a preseason first team Associated Press All-America pick, and standout Vanderbilt transfer Diego Pavia has carried the Commodores to a surprising 4-2 start, including a historic win over then-No. 1 Alabama.
Quite simply, Texas hasn't defended this caliber of quarterback all season.
Beck is a player on the doorstep of the NFL, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said.
“There's nothing in the throw game (Beck) can't do,” Sarkisian said. “He's played enough football now, too. It's kind of hard to confuse guys when they've played that much football.”
Texas (6-0, 2-0 SEC) has allowed just one team to pass for more than 200 yards this season. Beck passed for 459 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions last week in a 41-31 win over Mississippi State. His 36 completions set a Georgia record.
Even when Beck struggled early in Georgia's loss to Alabama, he rallied the Bulldogs to a late fourth-quarter lead. He finished with 439 yards in the loss where Georgia's rally ended with an Alabama interception in the end zone in the final minute.
Sarkisian recruited Beck when the Texas coach was an assistant at Alabama. Beck had initially committed to the Crimson Tide before switching to Georgia.
Beck is 18-2 in his career as a starter, and 6-2 against top 20 opponents.
The Bulldogs (5-1, 3-1) will need another exceptional game from him Saturday. A second SEC loss could threaten any chance of playing for the SEC championship, and raise the alarms on the College Football Playoff as well.
Texas has all but overwhelmed opposing quarterbacks so far.
In last week's 34-3 thrashing of rival Oklahoma, the Longhorns sacked Sooners freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. five times, and held him to 27 yards on 20 carries. Texas allowed just 225 total yards.
Hawkins was the first Sooners freshman to start at quarterback against the Longhorns in the 120-year history of the rivalry and was quickly swallowed up by a relentless pass rush.
By the numbers, the Longhorns program is on pace for a historic season. Sarkisian has said his favorite stat is points allowed, which is not many.
Texas has surrendered only three touchdowns all season. Opponents have snatched four turnovers inside Texas territory, but none have produced points.
That ability to snuff momentum can drain an opponent, Sarkisian said.
“We're so composed as a defense,” Texas safety Michael Taaffe said. “We're so confident, that no matter what happens, everything is going to be alright.”
The only time Texas has trailed this season was a 3-0 early deficit against Oklahoma. Several Longhorns starters were still on the field when the Sooners' final drive stalled at the Texas 6-yard-line as the game ended.
The stars emerging for the Longhorns have been second-year linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and freshman edge rusher Colin Simmons.
Hill leads the team in total tackles (42), sacks (4 1/2) and tackles for loss (8 1/2). His sideline-to-sideline speed and move this season from the edge to the middle of the Texas defense has drawn comparisons to former Longhorns All-American Derrick Johnson 20 years ago.
Simmons has four sacks and 7 1/2 tackles for losses, second on the team in both categories.
“Size, speed,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said in summing up the Texas defense.
“They’re the complete package on defense," Smart said. "The consistency you watch them play with, it reminds me of some of our best teams here.”By any measure, from the official statistics to the informal eye test, top-ranked Texas' defense has been dominant.
The Longhorns rank No. 1 in total defense and scoring defense. They are top 10 in first downs allowed, tackles for loss and passing yards. Much of that is built against opponents starting former walk-on quarterbacks ( Michigan ) and freshmen ( Mississippi State and Oklahoma.)
But the level of quarterback play Texas will face, in both talent and experience, is about to get much better over the second half of the season.
Texas hosts No. 5 Georgia on Saturday night in the first matchup of top five teams in Austin since 2006, before playing the next week at Vanderbilt. Bulldogs senior Carson Beck was a preseason first team Associated Press All-America pick, and standout Vanderbilt transfer Diego Pavia has carried the Commodores to a surprising 4-2 start, including a historic win over then-No. 1 Alabama.
Quite simply, Texas hasn't defended this caliber of quarterback all season.
Beck is a player on the doorstep of the NFL, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said.
“There's nothing in the throw game (Beck) can't do,” Sarkisian said. “He's played enough football now, too. It's kind of hard to confuse guys when they've played that much football.”
Texas (6-0, 2-0 SEC) has allowed just one team to pass for more than 200 yards this season. Beck passed for 459 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions last week in a 41-31 win over Mississippi State. His 36 completions set a Georgia record.
Even when Beck struggled early in Georgia's loss to Alabama, he rallied the Bulldogs to a late fourth-quarter lead. He finished with 439 yards in the loss where Georgia's rally ended with an Alabama interception in the end zone in the final minute.
Sarkisian recruited Beck when the Texas coach was an assistant at Alabama. Beck had initially committed to the Crimson Tide before switching to Georgia.
Beck is 18-2 in his career as a starter, and 6-2 against top 20 opponents.
The Bulldogs (5-1, 3-1) will need another exceptional game from him Saturday. A second SEC loss could threaten any chance of playing for the SEC championship, and raise the alarms on the College Football Playoff as well.
Texas has all but overwhelmed opposing quarterbacks so far.
In last week's 34-3 thrashing of rival Oklahoma, the Longhorns sacked Sooners freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. five times, and held him to 27 yards on 20 carries. Texas allowed just 225 total yards.
Hawkins was the first Sooners freshman to start at quarterback against the Longhorns in the 120-year history of the rivalry and was quickly swallowed up by a relentless pass rush.
By the numbers, the Longhorns program is on pace for a historic season. Sarkisian has said his favorite stat is points allowed, which is not many.
Texas has surrendered only three touchdowns all season. Opponents have snatched four turnovers inside Texas territory, but none have produced points.
That ability to snuff momentum can drain an opponent, Sarkisian said.
“We're so composed as a defense,” Texas safety Michael Taaffe said. “We're so confident, that no matter what happens, everything is going to be alright.”
The only time Texas has trailed this season was a 3-0 early deficit against Oklahoma. Several Longhorns starters were still on the field when the Sooners' final drive stalled at the Texas 6-yard-line as the game ended.
The stars emerging for the Longhorns have been second-year linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. and freshman edge rusher Colin Simmons.
Hill leads the team in total tackles (42), sacks (4 1/2) and tackles for loss (8 1/2). His sideline-to-sideline speed and move this season from the edge to the middle of the Texas defense has drawn comparisons to former Longhorns All-American Derrick Johnson 20 years ago.
Simmons has four sacks and 7 1/2 tackles for losses, second on the team in both categories.
“Size, speed,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said in summing up the Texas defense.
“They’re the complete package on defense," Smart said. "The consistency you watch them play with, it reminds me of some of our best teams here.”