PLAYING THE PONIES
Fred Faour's selections for Friday at Sam Houston Race Park -- plus a bonus play on Saturday's Pegasus World Cup
Jan 26, 2018, 12:16 pm
Gun Runner heads Saturday's Pegasus field. Brisnet.com
It's Day 4 of the Sam Houston Race Park thoroughbred meet with nine races tonight. Here are my selections for the card. These are not meant to be in exact order, but merely the four horses I think have the best chance to win. For beginners, I suggest exacta boxes with three horses, using two of mine and one of your own. And you can always pick up a copy of Acing Racing 2016 to learn everything you need to know. (These are the picks and format that are available on the free tip sheet at SHRP). Also, the Blitz is broadcasting live at the track today from 4-7 p.m. Drop by and say hello. However, before we get to the Sam Houston picks, the richest race in the world will be run at Gulfstream on Saturday and if you are looking for a play...
Pegasus World Cup
The race will be the final one for future Hall of Famer Gun Runner, who is the 4-5 favorite. He inherited the Best Horse in the World title when Arrogate returned from his Dubai World Cup win and was never the same. Gun Runner has won four in a row and six of his last seven, with only the second in Dubai to Arrogate tarnishing his record. He is a hard horse to root for, because his trainer is unlikeable, but that's not the horse's fault and does not tarnish his briliiance. He beat most of these in his last race, the Breeders' Cup Classic. But there are reasons to play against him here. Gulfstream is a quirky surface, he drew a tough post and will face serious early pace pressure. All that said, he is clearly the horse to beat. However, we will take a shot with No. 6 Gunnevera at 15-1. He loves Gulfstream, will be rolling late and could turn the tables on some of the horses that beat him in the Classic (he was fifth that day).
Cost will vary based on your bankroll, but we will base these plays on $2 exactas so you can get out light. Feel free to increase the wagers based on your personal budget (or go with $1 exactas if you are limited). We will do a $5 exacta box with Gunnevera and Gun Runner in case the big dog comes to play. If he doesn't, we will pick up a nice score wheeling Gunnevera in the exactas with every possible contener for $2: 6 with 2-4-5-7-9-11-12 and 2-4-5-7-9-11-12 with 6. That will cost $28 and your total outlay is $38. You could also consider playing him first and second in the trifectas with the 2-9-10-11 in second and 2-4-5-7-9-10-11-12 in third. (The second bet would be 2-9-10-11 with 6 with 2-4-5-7-9-10-11-12. For .50, those two bets come out to $28. Good luck on your plays.
Sam Houston Race Park Friday
FIRST
3-8-7-6
BIG CORK catches the easiest field he has seen in a while
SECOND
4-5-1-2
MOSTA FLYIN should be in a good spot to break through
THIRD
6-9-8-2
UNBRIDLED ENCORE is consistent but will need his best effort
FOURTH
5-6-2-3
OH FLO is well bred and could surprise at first asking
FIFTH
10-12-1-6
ARCH OF AGES drops in for a tag for the first time
SIXTH
2-1-7-8
DRINKIN SONG should be competitive at this distance
SEVENTH
5-10-7-6
REAL DE JALPA should be in the mix if she runs back to her Arlington turf form
EIGHTH
4-5-1-2
SELFIE SENSATION was sharp in last and will be tough
NINTH
11-3-2-4
CALF CREEK BULLDOG drops in for a tag and should improve
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
Let’s be clear: the Astros didn’t lose their series to the Mariners just because the bullpen melted down late. They lost because the offense put them in that vulnerable position to begin with — and the decisions from the dugout didn’t help.
Houston’s bats were a no-show in Game 2 despite the win in extra innings, and it was a massive reason why their bullpen was stretched thin in the series finale. Game 3 starter, Luis F. Castillo, had more control issues than command, and handed out five walks. That should’ve been the Astros’ ticket to a win. Instead? Missed opportunities, weak contact, and a bullpen meltdown caused Houston to drop another series.
The middle of the lineup is a problem
Christian Walker has turned into a black hole in the cleanup spot. His .229 slugging percentage and .196 OBP are not typos — they’re proof that opposing pitchers can pitch around Yordan Alvarez with no fear. Walker ranks 12th-worst in baseball in OPS, and his lone RBI as a cleanup hitter is borderline unbelievable.
Isaac Paredes isn’t exactly lighting it up, either, slugging .255. If Walker wasn’t such a disaster, Paredes would likely be catching more heat. And then there’s Yainer Diaz, who’s been completely lost at the plate. The offensive struggles are deeper than one guy — they’re systemic.
The Astros currently rank dead last in MLB in slugging and doubles, plus they are second to last in OPS. Only two teams have hit fewer homers. That’s not a slump. That’s an identity crisis.
Espada’s decisions worsened the situation
Manager Joe Espada deserves his share of the blame for how the final game unfolded. With a bullpen already running on fumes, Espada pulled his best bats for defense, then rolled out minor-league caliber arms to protect a lead. If he had his full bullpen, fine. But he didn’t — and he knew it. He got greedy.
Instead of turning to Steven Okert to start the eighth after Luis Contreras survived the seventh, Espada went back to the well. That decision backfired, as it often does when a struggling pitcher has already done more than expected. Even more puzzling was the choice to use Contreras at all when Logan VanWey had just been called up. Why call him up if you’re not going to use him?
And why was Bennett Sousa in that game?
Abreu's pitch selection was asking for trouble
Bryan Abreu had multiple 0-2 counts. Inexplicably, he grooved high fastballs over the heart of the plate. Major league hitters don’t miss those very often.
Pitching strategy
Astros pitchers are consistently working deep into counts. They’re far too comfortable taking at-bats to 3-2, especially with runners on. That kind of approach balloons pitch counts, tires starters, and taxes relievers — all things this team can’t afford right now. And don't get us started on how many stolen bases they're allowing.
A Silver lining? Maybe one
Spencer Arrighetti’s fluke broken thumb is obviously unfortunate. But if you’re desperate for a silver lining, this could help limit his innings across the season and keep him fresher for the stretch run — assuming he returns to form quickly.
Bottom line
Yes, the bullpen blew it. But the offense put them in that position, and the coaching staff didn’t pull the right levers. The Astros are 5-7, but with the way they’ve played, it almost feels like they should be thankful it’s not worse. There’s time to turn it around — but it starts with accountability, and the bats doing their part.
We have so much more to cover. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
___________________________
Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!