Fred Faour's analysis
Free plays for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby
May 3, 2019, 6:56 am
Game Winner. Getty Images.
Saturday will be the Kentucky Derby, and we are hoping to get back on track with our plays this year. If you want a look at every horse, please read this. For my premium plays, please go to pregame.com. That will give you precise trifecta and exacta plays.
The scratch of favorite Omaha Beach does hurt our plays a little, because it means Game Winner will likely be the favorite. We were hoping to get the 5-1 morning line, but that will not be the case now. Here are three plays I will be making on the Derby and Friday's Kentucky Oaks:
1) Kentucky Oaks
I like three horses here, the 1, 4 and 14. The 4 will be a heavy favorite and looks tough. I will do an exacta box with these three horses, and also play the 14 in weighted win/place/show bets (more to place and show than to win). So depending on your bankroll, a minimum play would be $2 to win, $4 to place and $8. Whatever your base win bet is, double it to place and then double again to show.
2) The Derby
I have it narrowed down to Tacitus and Game Winner to be first or second. So you can key them first and second in the exactas and tris with the logical contenders, but throw in long shots War of Will and Win Win Win. I also believe Tacitus is worth a win/place/show bet. My specific plays are on pregame,
Game Winner has been second in both starts this year after being 2-year-old champ. In his first start, he just missed against Omaha Beach despite a wide trip, coming off a layoff and losing training time because of the issues with the Santa Anita surface. In his second start, his stablemate Roadster needed a win to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Game Winner ran second to Roadster. Conspiracy theories aside, he will be 100 percent cranked up for this and we should see his best effort yet.
Tacitus has not faced the top 3 year olds, but he is bred out the ears to get a mile and a quarter, and his two starts this year were solid. He grinned out a win on the rail in the Tampa Bay Derby, then overcame tons of trouble to win the Wood Memorial. Traffic happens in the Derby, and the fact that he has already overcome it is a good thing.
Other legit contenders include Roadster, Maximum Security, Improbable. Potential long shots include War of Will and Win Win Win.
3) The pick 4
We will be playing a pick four, starting with the ninth race. It will be a .50 cent ticket. The horses to use: 1-9-10-12 with 4-10 with 2-6-9-12 with 5-7-8-16-17.
Good luck with all your wagers. Hopefully we will all be cashing tickets.
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Astros get just enough but lose a key contributor late
Jun 12, 2025, 11:22 pm
NFL analyst Albert Breer isn’t buying the quiet offseason surrounding the Houston Texans. In his view, the buzz — or lack of it — isn’t reflective of what this team actually is: a legitimate AFC contender that should be taken seriously in 2025.
Much of the skepticism, Breer believes, comes from surface-level narratives. The Texans went 10-7 in the regular season last year, a step back from the lofty expectations set after C.J. Stroud’s electric rookie year and Houston’s dramatic playoff push. And while the offense didn’t maintain its early-season explosion under Bobby Slowik, people seem to be overlooking how that same Texans team ended the year: as one of the last four teams standing in the AFC — alongside the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens.
In Breer’s eyes, Houston belongs in that group. The defense is championship-caliber, with rising stars and playmakers at every level. And offensively, the switch to Nick Caley as offensive coordinator could be just what the unit needs. Caley brings a fresh voice and perspective, and paired with a fully settled-in Stroud, the Texans are well-positioned to take another leap forward.
One moment Breer points to as underrated: Houston’s Divisional Round game against Kansas City at Arrowhead. While most remember the Texans bowing out of the playoffs there, many forget they were trailing by just one point going into the fourth quarter — toe-to-toe with the defending Super Bowl champs in one of the toughest environments in football.
The Texans’ current win total is set at 9.5 by oddsmakers — a line Breer believes is too low. His expectation? Twelve wins and another deep playoff run. To him, the narrative that Houston is being “slept on” will disappear soon enough — likely around the time the Texans remind everyone why they’re still a problem in the AFC.
You can watch the video below for the full conversation.
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