Fred Faour's analysis
Free plays for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby
May 3, 2019, 6:56 am
Fred Faour's analysis
Saturday will be the Kentucky Derby, and we are hoping to get back on track with our plays this year. If you want a look at every horse, please read this. For my premium plays, please go to pregame.com. That will give you precise trifecta and exacta plays.
The scratch of favorite Omaha Beach does hurt our plays a little, because it means Game Winner will likely be the favorite. We were hoping to get the 5-1 morning line, but that will not be the case now. Here are three plays I will be making on the Derby and Friday's Kentucky Oaks:
I like three horses here, the 1, 4 and 14. The 4 will be a heavy favorite and looks tough. I will do an exacta box with these three horses, and also play the 14 in weighted win/place/show bets (more to place and show than to win). So depending on your bankroll, a minimum play would be $2 to win, $4 to place and $8. Whatever your base win bet is, double it to place and then double again to show.
I have it narrowed down to Tacitus and Game Winner to be first or second. So you can key them first and second in the exactas and tris with the logical contenders, but throw in long shots War of Will and Win Win Win. I also believe Tacitus is worth a win/place/show bet. My specific plays are on pregame,
Game Winner has been second in both starts this year after being 2-year-old champ. In his first start, he just missed against Omaha Beach despite a wide trip, coming off a layoff and losing training time because of the issues with the Santa Anita surface. In his second start, his stablemate Roadster needed a win to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Game Winner ran second to Roadster. Conspiracy theories aside, he will be 100 percent cranked up for this and we should see his best effort yet.
Tacitus has not faced the top 3 year olds, but he is bred out the ears to get a mile and a quarter, and his two starts this year were solid. He grinned out a win on the rail in the Tampa Bay Derby, then overcame tons of trouble to win the Wood Memorial. Traffic happens in the Derby, and the fact that he has already overcome it is a good thing.
Other legit contenders include Roadster, Maximum Security, Improbable. Potential long shots include War of Will and Win Win Win.
We will be playing a pick four, starting with the ninth race. It will be a .50 cent ticket. The horses to use: 1-9-10-12 with 4-10 with 2-6-9-12 with 5-7-8-16-17.
Good luck with all your wagers. Hopefully we will all be cashing tickets.
Two first-place teams, identical records, and a weekend set with serious measuring-stick energy.
The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs open a three-game series Friday night at Daikin Park, in what could quietly be one of the more telling matchups of the summer. Both teams enter at 48-33, each atop their respective divisions — but trending in slightly different directions.
The Astros have been red-hot, going 7-3 over their last 10 while outscoring opponents by 11 runs. They've done it behind one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, with a collective 3.41 ERA that ranks second in the American League. Houston has also been dominant at home, where they’ve compiled a 30-13 record — a stat that looms large heading into this weekend.
On the other side, the Cubs have held their ground in the NL Central but have shown some recent shakiness. They're 5-5 over their last 10 games and have given up 5.66 runs per game over that stretch. Still, the offense remains dangerous, ranking fifth in on-base percentage across the majors. Kyle Tucker leads the way with a .287 average, 16 homers, and 49 RBIs, while Michael Busch has been hot of late, collecting 12 hits in his last 37 at-bats.
Friday’s pitching matchup features Houston’s Brandon Walter (0-1, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) and Chicago’s Cade Horton (3-1, 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), a promising young arm making one of his biggest starts of the season on the road. Horton will have his hands full with Isaac Paredes, who’s slugged 16 homers on the year, and Mauricio Dubón, who’s found a groove with four home runs over his last 10 games.
It’s the first meeting of the season between these two clubs — and if the trends continue, it may not be the last time they cross paths when it really counts.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Astros -112, Cubs -107; over/under is 8 1/2 runs
Here's a preview of Joe Espada's Game 1 lineup.
The first thing that stands out is rookie Cam Smith is hitting cleanup, followed by Jake Meyers. Victor Caratini is the DH and is hitting sixth. Christian Walker is all the way down at seventh, followed by Yainer Diaz, and Taylor Trammell who is playing left field.
How the mighty have fallen.
Pretty wild to see Walker and Diaz hitting this low in the lineup. However, it's justified, based on performance. Walker is hitting a pathetic .214 and Diaz is slightly better sporting a .238 batting average.
Screenshot via: MLB.com
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