Fred Faour's analysis
Free plays for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby
May 3, 2019, 6:56 am
Fred Faour's analysis
Saturday will be the Kentucky Derby, and we are hoping to get back on track with our plays this year. If you want a look at every horse, please read this. For my premium plays, please go to pregame.com. That will give you precise trifecta and exacta plays.
The scratch of favorite Omaha Beach does hurt our plays a little, because it means Game Winner will likely be the favorite. We were hoping to get the 5-1 morning line, but that will not be the case now. Here are three plays I will be making on the Derby and Friday's Kentucky Oaks:
I like three horses here, the 1, 4 and 14. The 4 will be a heavy favorite and looks tough. I will do an exacta box with these three horses, and also play the 14 in weighted win/place/show bets (more to place and show than to win). So depending on your bankroll, a minimum play would be $2 to win, $4 to place and $8. Whatever your base win bet is, double it to place and then double again to show.
I have it narrowed down to Tacitus and Game Winner to be first or second. So you can key them first and second in the exactas and tris with the logical contenders, but throw in long shots War of Will and Win Win Win. I also believe Tacitus is worth a win/place/show bet. My specific plays are on pregame,
Game Winner has been second in both starts this year after being 2-year-old champ. In his first start, he just missed against Omaha Beach despite a wide trip, coming off a layoff and losing training time because of the issues with the Santa Anita surface. In his second start, his stablemate Roadster needed a win to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Game Winner ran second to Roadster. Conspiracy theories aside, he will be 100 percent cranked up for this and we should see his best effort yet.
Tacitus has not faced the top 3 year olds, but he is bred out the ears to get a mile and a quarter, and his two starts this year were solid. He grinned out a win on the rail in the Tampa Bay Derby, then overcame tons of trouble to win the Wood Memorial. Traffic happens in the Derby, and the fact that he has already overcome it is a good thing.
Other legit contenders include Roadster, Maximum Security, Improbable. Potential long shots include War of Will and Win Win Win.
We will be playing a pick four, starting with the ninth race. It will be a .50 cent ticket. The horses to use: 1-9-10-12 with 4-10 with 2-6-9-12 with 5-7-8-16-17.
Good luck with all your wagers. Hopefully we will all be cashing tickets.
The Houston Astros (20-19) are just 4–6 over their last 10 games, but the numbers tell a more encouraging story. Despite the record, Houston is slowly but surely gaining ground in the AL West, sitting just two games back with a division-best +21 run differential. The standings may not fully reflect it yet, but the Astros are showing clear signs of being on the other side of their early offensive struggles.
Through the first month and change, the team’s season-long offensive stats still look pedestrian—14th in OPS (.697), 21st in slugging (.375), 20th in runs scored (163), and just 25th in home runs (33). But zoom in on the last 15 games, and the picture shifts dramatically.
In that span, the Astros have quietly put together one of the most productive offenses in baseball. And that's with Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve missing time due to injury. Houston ranks 4th in OPS (.805), 6th in slugging (.442), 7th in runs (64), and 5th in doubles (22). For a team with playoff expectations, that kind of turnaround is exactly what fans have been hoping for.
The resurgence has been powered in part by rising bats in the middle of the lineup. Christian Walker, who looked stuck in a rut early on, has caught fire over the past week, hitting .385 with a .500 slugging percentage over his last 7 games. Yainer Diaz is heating up too, hitting .310 with a .448 slug over that same stretch. Zoom out a little further, and Diaz has been even better—.339 average and .559 slugging over his last 15 games. His bat is starting to match the hype.
On the mound, the Astros have had their share of turbulence, particularly in Lance McCullers Jr.’s rocky return. Saturday’s 13–9 loss to the Reds underscored some of those struggles. McCullers failed to escape the first inning, giving up walks and hitting a batter before allowing a barrage of hits. Across his two starts since returning from injury, the right-hander has walked three batters and hit one in each outing.
Even so, Houston's pitching remains a strength overall. The Astros rank 8th in team ERA and lead the majors in WHIP (1.14), while holding opponents to the second-lowest batting average (.213). The bullpen, in particular, has been nails. Steven Okert, Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu, and Brian King have all posted ERAs of 1.59 or lower, keeping games within reach when starters falter.
There’s still work to do, and the standings don’t lie. But if the last two weeks are any indication, Houston is turning the corner. The bats are waking up, the bullpen is elite, and the rotation has room to get healthy and sharper. It might not show up in the win column just yet, but make no mistake—the Astros are trending in the right direction.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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