Fred Faour's analysis
Free plays for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby
May 3, 2019, 6:56 am
Fred Faour's analysis
Saturday will be the Kentucky Derby, and we are hoping to get back on track with our plays this year. If you want a look at every horse, please read this. For my premium plays, please go to pregame.com. That will give you precise trifecta and exacta plays.
The scratch of favorite Omaha Beach does hurt our plays a little, because it means Game Winner will likely be the favorite. We were hoping to get the 5-1 morning line, but that will not be the case now. Here are three plays I will be making on the Derby and Friday's Kentucky Oaks:
I like three horses here, the 1, 4 and 14. The 4 will be a heavy favorite and looks tough. I will do an exacta box with these three horses, and also play the 14 in weighted win/place/show bets (more to place and show than to win). So depending on your bankroll, a minimum play would be $2 to win, $4 to place and $8. Whatever your base win bet is, double it to place and then double again to show.
I have it narrowed down to Tacitus and Game Winner to be first or second. So you can key them first and second in the exactas and tris with the logical contenders, but throw in long shots War of Will and Win Win Win. I also believe Tacitus is worth a win/place/show bet. My specific plays are on pregame,
Game Winner has been second in both starts this year after being 2-year-old champ. In his first start, he just missed against Omaha Beach despite a wide trip, coming off a layoff and losing training time because of the issues with the Santa Anita surface. In his second start, his stablemate Roadster needed a win to guarantee a spot in the Derby. Game Winner ran second to Roadster. Conspiracy theories aside, he will be 100 percent cranked up for this and we should see his best effort yet.
Tacitus has not faced the top 3 year olds, but he is bred out the ears to get a mile and a quarter, and his two starts this year were solid. He grinned out a win on the rail in the Tampa Bay Derby, then overcame tons of trouble to win the Wood Memorial. Traffic happens in the Derby, and the fact that he has already overcome it is a good thing.
Other legit contenders include Roadster, Maximum Security, Improbable. Potential long shots include War of Will and Win Win Win.
We will be playing a pick four, starting with the ninth race. It will be a .50 cent ticket. The horses to use: 1-9-10-12 with 4-10 with 2-6-9-12 with 5-7-8-16-17.
Good luck with all your wagers. Hopefully we will all be cashing tickets.
Isaac Paredes hit a tiebreaking solo homer in the ninth inning to lift the Houston Astros to a 2-1 victory over the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night.
Owner of the Crawford Boxes. #BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/sn3gxOJqmG
— Houston Astros (@astros) May 14, 2025
The game was tied at 1 after a home run by Jeremy Peña in the sixth inning when Paredes led off the bottom of the ninth against John Schreiber (1-2). He sent his second pitch to left-center field for his fifth homer this season, giving Houston the win after Kansas City took the series opener Monday.
Both teams got strong outings from their starters. Houston’s Framber Valdez allowed six hits and a run with seven strikeouts in eight innings. Kris Bubic yielded six hits and a run and tied a career high with nine strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings.
Bryan Abreu (1-1) struck out one in a scoreless ninth for the win.
Hunter Renfroe doubled off the wall in left-center field with one out in the eighth. Valdez plunked Jonathan India on the foot with two outs, but he induced a groundout by Bobby Witt Jr. to end his night.
Maikel Garcia walked to open the fifth before a single by Vinnie Pasquantino sent him to third. The Royals took a 1-0 lead when Freddy Fermin singled on a ground ball to right field that scored Garcia.
Peña’s home run to left field tied it with no outs in the sixth.
TIE BALLGAME!#BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/wN7OAFUc8r
— Houston Astros (@astros) May 14, 2025
Jose Altuve followed with a double on a grounder down the third base line, but Bubic retired the next three batters, with two strikeouts, to leave him stranded.
Jake Meyers singled to start Houston’s seventh, but was out at second when Cam Smith grounded into a force out. Bubic was replaced by Lucas Erceg and he picked off Smith at first before striking out Brendan Rodgers to end the inning.
The home run by Paredes.
Peña has three homers, four doubles, 24 hits and 13 RBIs in 15 games since moving to the leadoff spot.
Kansas City RHP Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.57 ERA) opposes LHP Colton Gordon in the series finale Wednesday night. Gordon will be recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land to make his major league debut.