MAKING A PLAY
Gambling guide: Forecast of a low Tide in Championship game; recapping the NFL Wild-Card weekend
Jerry Bo
Jan 8, 2018, 4:08 pm
Nick Saban leads Alabama against Georgia tonight. Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images
Alabama -4 vs. Georgia O/U 46
50-1, the odds you could have got on Georgia to win the National title over the summer. Tonight, you will see a team that can match up with anyone in the nation.
Nick Saban the dominator
How good has Saban been exactly? Well, within his conference when listed as a favorite he is 49-39 ATS. Even more impressive, is his dominance over his former assistants. In games when facing his disciples, he is 11-0 straight up and 9-2 ATS. In these games, the master always makes statements covering the spread by double digits.
xThe clock is our friend
We all know about the potent rushing attack the Bulldogs embark onto the field. The duo is now the all-time FBS leaders in career rushing yards by a pair of running back teammates, surpassing SMU's Eric Dickerson and Craig James. The same two phenoms that set the Rose Bowl on fire with a combined 326 rushing yards on 25 carries. Alabama will need to figure out how to limit the big play. Another key stat we lean to when analyzing how to stop teams with such dominant run games is defensive adjusted line yards, where both of these teams rank inside the top 15. Converting on third downs is crucial in keeping the clock running, and the Bulldogs hold a significant advantage in Power success rate. Look for UGA to have success in short yardage situations through the ground game, keeping the clock ticking.
Being extra " Special" on special teams
Keeping these teams outside of the red zones will be pivotal for both sides. Georgia ranks 5th in the country in red zone efficiency where they score on 95.7% of their drives inside the 20. Nick Saban's bunch not far behind at 88.1%. Limiting the opponent to playing outside the 20's is a ritual both teams will be looking to exercise throughout the night. Another factor in the special teams tonight will be the inconsistency of both kickers from the 40-49 yard range. Alabama's kicker from such distance is 4-8; Georgia's kicker 4-7.
Turnovers
When handicapping a game with such a low total, you have to try to unveil any possible ways of getting extra opportunities to tack points on the board. Turnovers are a good way to juice a low scoring game, but the truth is turnovers are one of the more random stats in football. In Monday night's matchup, we have two teams ranked inside the top 35 in TO margin. Alabama leads the Nation with only nine turnovers the entire season and much has to do with the ability of Jalen Hurts to make smart decisions. Hurts has only thrown one interception all season! The Bulldogs haven't been exactly sloppy on the offensive side either; they only gave the ball away 14 times this year, five more than the tide.
A game that will be won in the trenches, I think the value is on the under. Georgia is aware of Bama's injuries to the linebacker group. They know if they can get past the defensive line, beating a linebacker group that shares three career starts, could be the way to the title. Look for Georgia to keep pounding away looking to break one open on an inexperienced linebacker group. The last thing Alabama wants is these Georgia's running backs in the open field vs. those linebackers. On the other side, Saban's bread and butter with Hurts under center is the read pass option. This is what hides his quarterback's inability to throw downfield and limits his turnovers. The only problem is the Georgia front seven is more than prepared for this having faced the RPO multiple times shutting it down vs. Brandon Wimbush(Notre Dame), Nick Fitzgerald (Miss St), and Jarrett Stidham(Auburn). Most recently they saw it with the Heisman Baker Mayfield, and although they didn't entirely "shut" him down, in the closing half, they limited Oklahoma to 171 yards and one touchdown including OT. The path to the 2018 College Football National Championship will be through the ground game, ideal for the under 46 -(-120)
Under 22.5 First Half
Under 46 full game
Lines as of 1/8/18 3:15 pm Bovada
Stats provided by Sports Insights
Wildcard Weekend: Book It
Wildcard weekend was huge for the books in the opening weekend of the NFL postseason. Bettors that chased last year's results were torched, let's see how the numbers differed.
Last Years Wild Card Weekend
Raiders vs. Texans (-4) 27-14 HOU
Lions vs. Seahawks (-8.5) 26-6 SEA
Miami vs. Pittsburgh (-11) 30-12 PITT
N.Y. Giants vs. Greenbay (-5) 38-13 G.B
4-0 Favorites
2017-2018
Titans (+9) vs Chiefs 22-21 TENN +350
Falcons (+6) vs Rams 26-13 ATL +210
Bills (+9) vs Jauguars 10-3 JAX
Panthers (+7) vs Saints 31-26 NO
Favorites 0-4
With all four contest being covered by the underdog, this year's trend lived on as two won outright. 72 of 110 underdogs won their games outright during the regular season 65%.
Totals
The over/under went 1-3 this week compared to a 2-2 record in last years Wildcard Weekend. An impressive number to keep your eye on, last year starting in the divisional round, the over dominated going 6-1. Did the books adjust their opening numbers anticipating action to the over?
Divisional Round lines
Falcons -2.5 at Eagles O/U 41
Titans at Patriots -14 O/U 47
Jaguars at Steelers -7.5 O/U 41
Saints at Vikings -3.5 O/U 45
Play action or pass went 3-5 bringing our record to 51-43-2 (54.2%) 52-44 Updated after CFB Title Game
Titans/Chiefs under 44.5 WIN
Jaguars-9 LOSS
Panthers +7 WIN
Falcons+6 WIN
Falcons/Rams over 48.5 LOSS
Titans Teams Total under 17.5 LOSS
Teasers 10 point
Chiefs +1/ Jags+1/ Falcons-Rams over 38.5 (2X) Ties on 10 point teasers are a LOSS (X2) Keep your records honest!
Update
Alabama /Georgia Under first half 22.5 WIN
Alabama/Georgia under 46 LOSS
Updated Super Bowl Odds
New England Patriots +200
Minnesota Vikings +375
Pittsburgh Steelers +500
New Orleans Saints +550
Atlanta Falcons +700
Philadelphia Eagles +1400
Jacksonville Jaguars +1800
Tennessee Titans +5000
Any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter.
Takeaways from the Tigers sweep of the Astros
Total butt kicking. The offense was dreadful, scoring just two runs over three games. However, what’s killing the offense the most is the outfield. Outside of when Altuve plays left field, Houston doesn’t have another major league-quality outfielder right now. Jesus Sanchez not only swung at a Charlie Morton curveball that hit him in the knee, he’s also ice-cold, going 0-for-28 at the plate. At least he’s someone you expect to turn things around, but he’s in a huge slump currently. Beyond him, Jacob Melton, Taylor Trammell, and Chas McCormick have all been dragging down the offense. Cam Smith is struggling too, with just one hit in his last seven games.
Is Framber Valdez going to be okay?
Starting pitching was another big issue against the Tigers, and Valdez was a key part of the problem, basically losing the finale in the first inning after allowing six runs. This isn’t an outlier—he’s got a 7+ ERA through four starts in August. Spencer Arrighetti isn’t faring much better, posting a 7+ ERA through three starts. One silver lining with Valdez: the Tigers know him well. They had success against him in the playoffs last season, and it looks like they’re continuing that formula—force him to throw strikes, hit the other way on the sinker, and if the curveball isn’t up, let it go. AJ Hinch knows the deal.
Is the return of Yordan Alvarez enough to boost the offense?
It has to be. The only real way to give this lineup a spark is getting Yordan and Jake Meyers back. Yordan had a successful first rehab outing, collecting a couple of hits, a walk, and even a stolen base. Adding him back to the top of the lineup gives the Astros a formidable top four: Peña, Altuve, Yordan, and Correa. As for Meyers, the outfield has been the biggest drag on the offense. The key is whether he can continue to hit near .300 when he returns from injury. If he does, Altuve and Meyers in the outfield makes a huge difference, and Joe Espada can figure out right field with Sanchez and Smith.
Is the schedule not as soft as anticipated?
We’ve seen some strange results across the league this week, and some of that has to be chalked up to the Dog Days of Summer. Players are tired, and results have been wild. Thankfully, the Mariners are struggling too, giving the Astros some breathing room. Player adjustments after the trade deadline could also be a factor—Sanchez, anyone? Many big free agents have struggled immediately after changing teams, Walker and Juan Soto included.
Can they recover and take advantage of bad teams?
One thing we know about this year’s Astros: they can flip the switch and win multiple series on a moment’s notice. They’re just as capable of sweeping a series as they are of getting swept. Let’s hope that starts with four wins in Baltimore.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode on Thursday!
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