MAKING A PLAY

Gambling guide: Forecast of a low Tide in Championship game; recapping the NFL Wild-Card weekend

Gambling guide: Forecast of a low Tide in Championship game; recapping the NFL Wild-Card weekend
Nick Saban leads Alabama against Georgia tonight. Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images

Alabama -4 vs. Georgia  O/U 46

50-1, the odds you could have got on Georgia to win the National title over the summer. Tonight, you will see a team that can match up with anyone in the nation.

Nick Saban the dominator

How good has Saban been exactly? Well, within his conference when listed as a favorite he is 49-39 ATS. Even more impressive, is his dominance over his former assistants. In games when facing his disciples, he is 11-0 straight up and 9-2 ATS. In these games, the master always makes statements covering the spread by double digits.

xThe clock is our friend

We all know about the potent rushing attack the Bulldogs embark onto the field. The duo is now the all-time FBS leaders in career rushing yards by a pair of running back teammates, surpassing SMU's Eric Dickerson and Craig James. The same two phenoms that set the Rose Bowl on fire with a combined 326 rushing yards on 25 carries. Alabama will need to figure out how to limit the big play. Another key stat we lean to when analyzing how to stop teams with such dominant run games is defensive adjusted line yards, where both of these teams rank inside the top 15. Converting on third downs is crucial in keeping the clock running, and the Bulldogs hold a significant advantage in Power success rate.  Look for UGA to have success in short yardage situations through the ground game, keeping the clock ticking.

Being extra " Special" on special teams

Keeping these teams outside of the red zones will be pivotal for both sides. Georgia ranks 5th in the country in red zone efficiency where they score on 95.7% of their drives inside the 20. Nick Saban's bunch not far behind at 88.1%. Limiting the opponent to playing outside the 20's is a ritual both teams will be looking to exercise throughout the night. Another factor in the special teams tonight will be the inconsistency of both kickers from the 40-49 yard range. Alabama's kicker from such distance is 4-8; Georgia's kicker 4-7.

Turnovers

When handicapping a game with such a low total, you have to try to unveil any possible ways of getting extra opportunities to tack points on the board. Turnovers are a good way to juice a low scoring game, but the truth is turnovers are one of the more random stats in football. In Monday night's matchup, we have two teams ranked inside the top 35 in TO margin. Alabama leads the Nation with only nine turnovers the entire season and much has to do with the ability of Jalen Hurts to make smart decisions. Hurts has only thrown one interception all season! The Bulldogs haven't been exactly sloppy on the offensive side either; they only gave the ball away 14 times this year, five more than the tide.

A game that will be won in the trenches, I think the value is on the under. Georgia is aware of Bama's injuries to the linebacker group. They know if they can get past the defensive line, beating a linebacker group that shares three career starts, could be the way to the title. Look for Georgia to keep pounding away looking to break one open on an inexperienced linebacker group. The last thing Alabama wants is these Georgia's running backs in the open field vs. those linebackers. On the other side, Saban's bread and butter with Hurts under center is the read pass option. This is what hides his quarterback's inability to throw downfield and limits his turnovers. The only problem is the Georgia front seven is more than prepared for this having faced the RPO multiple times shutting it down vs. Brandon Wimbush(Notre Dame), Nick Fitzgerald (Miss St), and Jarrett Stidham(Auburn). Most recently they saw it with the Heisman Baker Mayfield, and although they didn't entirely "shut" him down, in the closing half, they limited Oklahoma to 171 yards and one touchdown including OT. The path to the 2018 College Football National Championship will be through the ground game, ideal for the under 46 -(-120)

Under 22.5 First Half

Under 46 full game

Lines as of 1/8/18 3:15 pm Bovada

Stats provided by Sports Insights

Wildcard Weekend: Book It

Wildcard weekend was huge for the books in the opening weekend of the NFL postseason. Bettors that chased last year's results were torched, let's see how the numbers differed.

Last Years Wild Card Weekend
Raiders vs. Texans (-4)  27-14 HOU
Lions vs. Seahawks (-8.5)  26-6 SEA
Miami vs. Pittsburgh (-11)   30-12 PITT
N.Y. Giants vs. Greenbay (-5)  38-13 G.B
4-0 Favorites

2017-2018
Titans (+9) vs Chiefs 22-21 TENN +350
Falcons (+6) vs Rams 26-13 ATL +210
Bills (+9) vs Jauguars 10-3 JAX
Panthers (+7) vs Saints 31-26 NO
 

Favorites 0-4
With all four contest being covered by the underdog, this year's trend lived on as two won outright. 72 of 110 underdogs won their games outright during the regular season 65%.

Totals
The over/under went 1-3 this week compared to a 2-2 record in last years Wildcard Weekend. An impressive number to keep your eye on, last year starting in the divisional round, the over dominated going 6-1. Did the books adjust their opening numbers anticipating action to the over?

Divisional Round lines
Falcons -2.5 at Eagles  O/U 41
Titans at Patriots -14   O/U  47
Jaguars at Steelers -7.5 O/U  41
Saints at Vikings -3.5  O/U  45

Play action or pass went 3-5 bringing our record to 51-43-2 (54.2%)   52-44 Updated after CFB Title Game
Titans/Chiefs under 44.5 WIN
Jaguars-9 LOSS
Panthers +7  WIN
Falcons+6   WIN
Falcons/Rams over 48.5   LOSS
Titans Teams Total under 17.5  LOSS
Teasers 10 point
Chiefs +1/ Jags+1/ Falcons-Rams over 38.5 (2X) Ties on 10 point teasers are a LOSS (X2) Keep your records honest!
Update

Alabama /Georgia Under first half 22.5 WIN

Alabama/Georgia under 46 LOSS
Updated Super Bowl Odds

New England Patriots    +200
Minnesota Vikings    +375
Pittsburgh Steelers    +500
New Orleans Saints    +550
Atlanta Falcons    +700
Philadelphia Eagles    +1400
Jacksonville Jaguars    +1800
Tennessee Titans    +5000

Any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on Twitter.

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Get your popcorn ready! Composite image by Brandon Strange.

Filed the column early this week with Astros’ baseball that counts arriving Thursday! Ideally that arrival occurs with Minute Maid Park’s roof open under sunny skies with temperature in the mid-70s and only moderate humidity (that’s the forecast).

As they ready for their season-opening four game series, the Astros and Yankees enter 2024 with streaks on the line. The Astros take aim at an eighth consecutive American League Championship Series appearance while obviously aiming ultimately higher than that. The Yankees are a good bet to fail to make the World Series for the 15th consecutive season, which would be a new Yankees’ record! At its origin in 1903 the franchise was known as the New York Highlanders. The name became the Yankees in 1913, with the first franchise World Series appearance coming in 1921. So that was 18 years of play without winning a pennant. Maybe that gives the Yanks something to shoot for in 2027.

On the more immediate horizon, the Astros and Yankees both start the season with question marks throughout their starting rotations. It’s just that the Astros do so coming off their seventh straight ALCS appearance while the Yankees are coming off having missed the postseason entirely for the first time in seven years. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole can spend time Thursday chit-chatting about their days as Astro teammates because they won’t be pitching against one another. Cole’s absence hurts the Yankees more than Verlander’s should the Astros. Cole was the unanimously voted AL Cy Young Award winner last season, and at eight years younger than Verlander the workload he was expected to carry is greater. Cole is gone for at least the first two months of the season, the Astros would be pleased if Verlander misses less than one month.

Whoever does the pitching, the guy on the mound for the Astros has the benefit of a clearly better lineup supporting him. The Yankees could have the best two-man combo in the game with Aaron Judge batting second ahead of offseason acquisition Juan Soto. Two men do not a Murderers’ Row make. Gleyber Torres is the only other guy in the Yankees’ projected regular batting order who was better than mediocre last season, several guys were lousy. The Astros have six guys in their lineup (Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, and Yainer Diaz) who were better in the batter’s box than was Torres last season. The Yanks have hopes for a healthy and huge bounce back season from the brittle and 34-years-old Giancarlo Stanton. Good luck with that.

Man with a plan

We have to see how things play out over the season of course, but it is exciting to see new manager Joe Espada’s progressive outlook on a number of things. Acknowledging that Astros’ baserunning has too often been deficient, Espada made improving it a spring training priority. The same with Astros’ pitchers doing a better job of holding opposing base runners at first with base stealing having occurred with the highest success rate in MLB history last season. Tweaking the lineup to bat Alvarez second behind Altuve is a strong choice. Having your two best offensive forces come to the plate most frequently is inherently smart.

Opting to bat Tucker third ahead of Bregman rather than the other way around also seems wise business. Let’s offer one specific circumstance. An opposing pitcher manages to retire both Altuve and Alvarez. Tucker walking or singling is much more capable of stealing second base and then scoring on a Bregman single than the inverse. Or scoring from first on a ball hit to the corner or a shallow gap. I suggest in a similar vein that is why the much older and much slower Jose Abreu should bat lower in the lineup than Chas McCormick and Yainer Diaz. Though Espada giving Abreu veteran deference to get off to a better season than Abreu’s largely lousy 2023 is ok. To a point.

Eye on the prize

The ceiling for the 2024 Astros is clear. Winning a third World Series in eight years is viably in play. The floor is high. Barring an utter collapse of the starting rotation and/or a calamitous toll of injuries within the offensive core there is no way this is only a .500-ish ballclub. That does not mean the Astros are a surefire postseason team. The Rangers may again have a better offense. The Mariners definitely begin the season with a better starting rotation. In the end, other than when it impacts team decision-making, prognostication doesn’t matter. But these two words definitely matter: PLAY BALL!

To welcome the new season we’ll do a live YouTube Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast about 30 minutes after the final out is recorded in Thursday’s opener.

Our second season of Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is underway. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. On our regular schedule the first post goes up Monday afternoon. You can get the video version (first part released Monday, second part Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available at initial release Monday via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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