The week in wagering
Gambling review: Come rain, come snow or hail: The game must go on
Play, Action or Pass Week 8 went 3-4 and is 7-5-1 on the year.
Cowboys/Redskins over 48 WIN
Seahawks -5.5 Loss
Panthers +3 (hook) WIN
Teaser of the Week
Favorites went 12-1 Straight up and 8-5 ATS. In three of our loses we had the winning team, they just didn't get to the number. The one that leaves you with the worse heartburn has to be the Saints game. New Orleans controlled the game but two fourth quarter fumbles by Mark Ingram turned the momentum and opened us up for a backdoor cover. In a game where he was playing well, Ingram was on the bench for the closing moments being punished for nearly giving the up the game and also killing all the Saints backers. This game opened at 8.5-9 and was hit early by pro bettors, sending it back down to 7.5. The game ended 20-12: middling the opening and closing numbers.
From the cashiers window
Most bet Teams:
In the Day slate, favorites dominated going 9-1 straight up. This was big for the public that was betting money line parlays and teasers using the favorites. With The NFL matinee siding with the bettors, money came pouring in late for the Sunday night matchup in Detriot driving the Steelers to -3 (-125). The Steelers covered the spread winning 20-15, giving the books a futile day.
Largest Favorite to cover Eagles -13:
The Eagles are quickly becoming one of the league's best teams and gamblers agree. With a double-digit spread in wet conditions and a somewhat low closing total of 44, taking the points is usually the smart move. The Eagles have been flying at Lincoln Financial Field; where they are now 4-0 straight up, and 3-1 ATS a and have covered the last five overall. The Eagles look great, and this has a lot to do with Carson Wentz developing into a leader so quickly, leading the Eagles to 6-2 ATS.
This week the only underdog to win outright was the Panthers+1 (+105) defeating the Buccaneers 17-3.
In Week 8 the over/under went 8-5.
Cowboys/Redskins O/U 48 closed 46.5:
Over Bettors rejoiced, as they were gifted a late defensive score to push the total over the closing number of 46.5. The total opened up at 48. but as game day approached and weather reports confirmed a forecast of heavy rain for the second half of the game, the under was pounded pregame, bringing the total down.
Rain also played a factor in the Falcons vs. Jets matchup. Metlife Stadium was hammered with rain, and the gameplay was somewhat affected. The ball was so wet that quarterback Matt Ryan was running around with a towel under his jersey. Atlanta failed to cover the closing number of 5.5 winning the game 25-20. The game had a total of 43 and went over despite the conditions.
Weather and totals:
Both of these games were affected by substantial rainfall, but both went over the total. Games calling for heavy precipitation usually drives the total down because of what is perceived from the public and recreational bettors. Yes, ideally a game is the lower 80's with clear skies is fancied, but don't overreact to a wet forecast. It's easier for an offensive player to get to a spot in the rain knowing where he is going, opposed to a defender backpedaling guessing what direction the opponent is going.
When speaking of the elements, wind is the factor to watch out for. Winds crossing the 15 mph will affect a game and total drastically. A strong wind calls for a playbook to be deprived of the deep ball. With heavy winds, you ordinarily tend to see Coaches turn to a running game and a short pass game of underneath passes. These factors result in the clock to keep running and the game to be shortened giving the under extreme value. On Sunday, the Panthers Vs. Bucs game had winds in the 20's. The home team was unable to get anything going with Jameis Winston underthrowing multiple deep balls. His leading receiver Sunday? The tight end with four receptions. The game ended 17-3 with a total that closed at 46.
Regarding temperature, the colder the game usually, the lower you see totals. This is because it's more difficult to pass and catch in frigid temperatures but easier to run. Again, resulting in the clock running. When playing unders, the clock running is exactly what you want to see.
Super Bowl odds
Pit, Phi 7-1
Min, NO 18-1
LAR, Atl 25-1
Jax, Car, Hou 40-1
Den, GB 60-1
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.