The week in wagering
Gambling review: Come rain, come snow or hail: The game must go on
Jerry Bo
Oct 31, 2017, 7:00 am
Play, Action or Pass Week 8 went 3-4 and is 7-5-1 on the year.
Bengals-9.5 LOSS
Saints-9 LOSS
Cowboys/Redskins over 48 WIN
Seahawks -5.5 Loss
Steelers-2.5 WIN
Panthers +3 (hook) WIN
Teaser of the Week
Saints-3/Waskington+8 LOSS
Favorites went 12-1 Straight up and 8-5 ATS. In three of our loses we had the winning team, they just didn't get to the number. The one that leaves you with the worse heartburn has to be the Saints game. New Orleans controlled the game but two fourth quarter fumbles by Mark Ingram turned the momentum and opened us up for a backdoor cover. In a game where he was playing well, Ingram was on the bench for the closing moments being punished for nearly giving the up the game and also killing all the Saints backers. This game opened at 8.5-9 and was hit early by pro bettors, sending it back down to 7.5. The game ended 20-12: middling the opening and closing numbers.
Most bet Teams:
Eagles 78%
Saints 77%
Steelers 73%
Panthers 73%
Falcons 72%
In the Day slate, favorites dominated going 9-1 straight up. This was big for the public that was betting money line parlays and teasers using the favorites. With The NFL matinee siding with the bettors, money came pouring in late for the Sunday night matchup in Detriot driving the Steelers to -3 (-125). The Steelers covered the spread winning 20-15, giving the books a futile day.
Largest Favorite to cover Eagles -13:
The Eagles are quickly becoming one of the league's best teams and gamblers agree. With a double-digit spread in wet conditions and a somewhat low closing total of 44, taking the points is usually the smart move. The Eagles have been flying at Lincoln Financial Field; where they are now 4-0 straight up, and 3-1 ATS a and have covered the last five overall. The Eagles look great, and this has a lot to do with Carson Wentz developing into a leader so quickly, leading the Eagles to 6-2 ATS.
This week the only underdog to win outright was the Panthers+1 (+105) defeating the Buccaneers 17-3.
Totals:
In Week 8 the over/under went 8-5.
Cowboys/Redskins O/U 48 closed 46.5:
Over Bettors rejoiced, as they were gifted a late defensive score to push the total over the closing number of 46.5. The total opened up at 48. but as game day approached and weather reports confirmed a forecast of heavy rain for the second half of the game, the under was pounded pregame, bringing the total down.
Rain also played a factor in the Falcons vs. Jets matchup. Metlife Stadium was hammered with rain, and the gameplay was somewhat affected. The ball was so wet that quarterback Matt Ryan was running around with a towel under his jersey. Atlanta failed to cover the closing number of 5.5 winning the game 25-20. The game had a total of 43 and went over despite the conditions.
Weather and totals:
Both of these games were affected by substantial rainfall, but both went over the total. Games calling for heavy precipitation usually drives the total down because of what is perceived from the public and recreational bettors. Yes, ideally a game is the lower 80's with clear skies is fancied, but don't overreact to a wet forecast. It's easier for an offensive player to get to a spot in the rain knowing where he is going, opposed to a defender backpedaling guessing what direction the opponent is going.
When speaking of the elements, wind is the factor to watch out for. Winds crossing the 15 mph will affect a game and total drastically. A strong wind calls for a playbook to be deprived of the deep ball. With heavy winds, you ordinarily tend to see Coaches turn to a running game and a short pass game of underneath passes. These factors result in the clock to keep running and the game to be shortened giving the under extreme value. On Sunday, the Panthers Vs. Bucs game had winds in the 20's. The home team was unable to get anything going with Jameis Winston underthrowing multiple deep balls. His leading receiver Sunday? The tight end with four receptions. The game ended 17-3 with a total that closed at 46.
Regarding temperature, the colder the game usually, the lower you see totals. This is because it's more difficult to pass and catch in frigid temperatures but easier to run. Again, resulting in the clock running. When playing unders, the clock running is exactly what you want to see.
NE 5-1
Pit, Phi 7-1
Sea 9-1
KC 10-1
Min, NO 18-1
Dal 20-1
LAR, Atl 25-1
Jax, Car, Hou 40-1
Ten 50-1
Den, GB 60-1
Buf 65-1
For any questions or comments reach me at @JerryBoKnowz on twitter.
The Houston Texans have a big challenge in store as they look to start the season with a win against the Colts this Sunday. When these two teams met in Week 2 last year, the Colts dominated the Texans, despite losing their QB Anthony Richardson to a concussion after the first quarter.
Keeping Richardson contained on Sunday will go a long way in increasing the Texans' chances of coming home with a win. The Texans defense will have their hands full containing the Colts backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Scoring touchdowns with their wide receivers could prove difficult, as the Texans allowed the second-fewest TDs (10) to the receiver position in 2023.
Limiting running back Jonathan Taylor will also be a top priority. While the Texans had an elite defense against the run last season, they struggled with Taylor in Week 18 as he almost rushed for 200 yards.
Houston's D allowed only four carries to running backs in 2023 that went for 20 or more yards. Two of which were to Taylor in the final game of the regular season.
Finally, DeMeco Ryans and company have to find a way to get pressure on the QB. They only had one QB hit and zero sacks on Richardson and Garner Minshew the first time they faced off last year.
On offense, the Texans have two big x-factors to watch for on Sunday. The offensive line that suited up to play the Colts in Week 2 last season is completely different from this year.
The o-line was ravaged with injuries to start the 2023 campaign, so we expect a big jump in productivity in the trenches this year.
Another big addition in 2024 is the presence of running back Joe Mixon. The running game only produced 2 yards per rush in Week 2 against Indy last year, so there's clearly room for improvement.
Be sure to watch the video above for our in-depth preview of Texans-Colts!
And catch Texans on Tap (a Texans podcast) live on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel following every game this season!