Astros Offseason
What Astros arbitration means for the future of George Springer
Jan 11, 2020, 4:11 am
Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images, Composite by Brandon Strange
What you need to know:
- The Astros failed to reach an agreement with George Springer for next season's compensation.
- The 2 parties will have hearing with an arbiter to plead their case.
- The Astros have a history of shrewd dealings with Springer.
- This could be a sign that Springer does not have a long-term future with Houston.
Ahead of Friday night's arbitration deadline, the Astros reached 1-year agreements with four players: Carlos Correa ($8 million), Roberto Osuna ($10 million), Chris Devenski ($2 million), and Brad Peacock ($3.9 million) per ESPN's Jeff Passan.
The biggest news came from their failure to reach an agreement with outfielder George Springer. According to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, Springer is seeking $22.5 million, which is $10.5 million more than his salary last year and $5 million more than the $17.5 million offered by the Astros. It's the biggest gap of all of this year's arbitration cases across MLB. The parties now appear to be headed to a hearing in February to determine Springer's salary in what is his final year of team control.The biggest arbitration case in terms of both salary and the gap between sides: George Springer vs. the Astros. He's asking for $22.5 million and Houston is offering $17.5 million, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 11, 2020
Houston also failed to reach an agreement with infielder Aledmys Diaz. The gap is not as big with Diaz ($600k difference) and more importantly, the stakes aren't as high as they are with Springer.
Springer, in a sense, should be a free agent this offseason. Back at the start of the 2014 season, though, George declined an extremely team-friendly contract. After failing to lock Springer into a multi-year deal, the Astros responded by manipulating his service time. By tethering him to the minor leagues just a few days into the season, the team was able to maintain control of his contract for an additional year. Dissatisfied by the move, Springer and his (then) representation explored filing a grievance through the MLBPA.
It's worth noting a couple of things. First, this is standard practice within MLB. Second, it was a shrewd, bad-faith, punitive move by a cunning, analytically-driven front office.
Springer and the Astros went on to achieve the sort of on-field success that helps rinse away the bitter taste of business. Both sides avoided arbitration in 2018 by agreeing to a 2-year, $24 million contract. The deal seemed to be a sign that the two parties were back on the same page.
This time around, the parties aren't close.
It begs the question: will George Springer have a future with the Astros beyond 2020? It's hard to imagine the current iteration of the Astros without their fan-favorite centerfielder. From the iconic 2014 Sports Illustrated cover, to his eventual World Series MVP in 2017, Springer is a cornerstone of Houston's success. But the business doesn't much account for nostalgia, fandom, or loyalty. Houston does not have unlimited resources and already carries a top-10 payroll.The Astros haven't won a hearing since beating catcher Jason Castro in 2016, losing five in a row. They lost to pitcher Collin McHugh in 2017 and '18, lost to pitcher Ken Giles in '18 and last year lost to pitcher Gerrit Cole and Correa.
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) January 11, 2020
The Astros unapologetically made the best business decision for themselves in 2014. George Springer will be in a position to do the same in 2021. For the record, the Astros haven't won an arbitration hearing since 2016. Springer has a reasonable shot at getting his asking price. There's also a fair chance this is the last time the Astros pay it. Each a victim of their own success, Springer and the Astros are nearing the point at which they can no longer afford the other.
Update Jan. 16, 2020: The Astros reached an agreement with George Springer for $21M, avoiding arbitration.
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The phrase most associated with the late former Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland Raiders’ owner Al Davis was “Just win baby.” One has to think Al would strongly approve of the Houston Astros. Going to the fifth inning Sunday against the Mariners the Astros were facing a 3-0 deficit and staring at the prospect of being swept out of Seattle and having their American League West division lead slashed to just two games. Now after roaring from behind with 11 unanswered runs to take the series finale in the Emerald City, and then sweeping three games from the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Astros stand six games up with 60 games to go. So, if the Astros play just .500 ball the rest of the way (which would have them finish with 90 victories), the Mariners have to play .600 ball to catch them. If somehow the Astros are to maintain their season long win pace to the finish line they’d close with 95 wins, and the race is already over unless someone thinks the M’s are poised to uncork a finishing kick of 41-19 or better. It’s quite a pleasing perch from which the Astros survey the standings. Coupled with the freefalling Detroit Tigers having dropped nine of their last ten games, the Astros amazingly start this homestand sporting the best record in the entire American League. On the homestand they follow four games against the team with the second-worst record in the American League (Athletics) with three versus the team with the second-worst record in the National League (Nationals). I know, I know. There is fear of the Astros playing down to the competition, but that is not the way to look at it. A bad Major League team can beat a good team in a series at any time. If it happens it happens, but it wouldn’t mean it happened only because the Astros didn’t take their opponent seriously. This isn’t the NBA.
Trade deadline looming
Of course, It hasn’t been all good news with Isaac Paredes badly injuring a hamstring Sunday. Paredes could be back in three weeks (doubtful), he could miss the rest of the season. GET WELL SOON JEREMY PENA! Lance McCullers’s latest Injured List stint could be considered addition by subtraction for the Astros’ starting rotation. Whether impacted by his blister issue, Lance was lousy in four of his last five starts. So, one week from the trade deadline, if general manager Dana Brown has the ammo to get one deal done, where does he make the upgrade? The left-handed hitter everyone knows the Astros can use regardless of Yordan Alvarez’s status is a natural priority. With the Astros’ weak farm system it would seem difficult for Brown to put forth the winning offer for the top bats that could be in play. That probably rings even truer now, since if he wasn’t already untouchable, Brice Matthews may have cemented untouchable status by darn near winning the first two games of the Diamondbacks series by himself. Matthews is going to struggle mightily to hit for a good average if he can’t make notable improvement in the contact department, but the power is obvious, as is the athleticism in the field. The 23-year-old Matthews and 22-year-old Cam Smith (though presently mired in a three for 36 slump) are the clear (and right now only) two young shining beacons for the lineup’s future.
You can't have enough pitching
While Brandon Walter has been a revelation, a starting pitcher would make sense unless the decision is to hope Spencer Arrighetti and/or Cristian Javier can contribute meaningfully upon return to the big leagues, likely sometime next month. Going after a reliever or two may make more sense in terms of availability and transaction cost. Overall the Astros’ bullpen has been excellent, but Bryan Abreu is the only trustworthy right-handed option for Joe Espada. Back to Walter. Barely two months ago no way Walter himself would have believed he’d be where he is now. Nine starts since being summoned basically out of desperation, Walter has a 3.35 earned run average, and a stunning 13 to one strikeout-to-walk ratio with his 52 strikeouts against a measly four walks allowed in 53 2/3 innings. Walter has pitched fabulously in seven of his nine starts. He only has two wins, but that’s because in five of the six Walter starts the Astros didn’t win the game they failed to score more than two runs. Walter turns 29 years old in September. His only prior big league experience was 23 innings in relief with a 6.26 ERA for the Red Sox two years ago. The Bosox released him last August, the Astros signed him basically as minor league depth. Look at him (and the Astros) now.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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