World Cup Recap: Day 14

Germany eliminated and Mexico spared as Sweden and Brazil win their groups

Germany eliminated and Mexico spared as Sweden and Brazil win their groups
Mexico backed in despite a loss. Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images

After all the unthinkable results so far, there’s no way it would continue. Right? Wrong. The insanity continued on the two-week mark of the tournament, sending a variety of nationalities on a roller coaster of emotions.

Mexico 0-3 Sweden

Ekaterinburg Arena, Ekaterinburg

Attendance: 33,061

Mexico were looking to solidify their spot at the top of Group F, needing only a draw, while Sweden could assure itself qualification with a win - and potentially win the group for themselves. Mexico started in bad form from the whistle as midfielder Jesus Gallardo picked up the fastest yellow card in World Cup history just 13 seconds in. Each side would have opportunities but few on goal, sending them tied 0-0 at halftime despite Sweden being the higher pressing team.

Sweden would be rewarded for their persistence with the opening goal five minutes into the second half. Ludwig Augustinsson - a member of Sweden’s 2015 UEFA European U-21 championship team - picked up his first goal with the senior team on a play where three Swedish players were ready to pounce inside the box. In the 60th minute, Mexico defender Hector Moreno would be yellow carded - disqualifying him from playing the following match - for a tackle inside the box. Sweden Captain Andreas Granqvist would convert his second penalty of the tournament to put his side up 2-0. An Edson Alvarez own-goal in the 74th minute sunk Mexico further and 3-0 Sweden would be the final scoreline.

Analysis: If you had asked Mexico fans what their expectations were heading into the tournament, most would say a second place finish and a round of 16 bout with Brazil. That all changed after El Tri’s opening win against Germany. They only needed a draw on the day but even that was in jeopardy on Wednesday - not to mention their qualification hopes. A win by South Korea secured Mexico’s passage into the next round, which would have been toast had Germany been able to find a goal. Ultimately, it’s a clean slate and Mexico will be lucky to have salvaged at least that. Some may argue that they match well with Brazil, but even if they win on Monday, the Sweden loss has put them in the toughest side of the bracket. Maybe the tough competition will bring the best out of Mexico, but otherwise, this may have been a wasted opportunity.

Sweden, on their end, have not been getting the credit they deserve and this win will get them that. After leaving out the Netherlands and Italy in European qualifiers, the Nordic nation have won their group to set up an advantageous tie with a hobbling Switzerland. Nothing is guaranteed but Sweden look strong and a side that is ascending and one that should reach the quarter-finals.

Notable stat: Mexico repeated a starting XI for the first time under Manager Juan Carlos Osorio’s tenure.

South Korea 2-0 Germany

Kazan Arena, Kazan

Attendance: 41,835

Defending champions Germany had saved their hopes with a late goal over Sweden in their previous match and needed a win to advance. South Korea lost its first two matches but were hopeful to go through if Mexico could get a win over Sweden. Both teams would have their share of opportunities but could not find a way to break the other down through the full 90 minutes. Kim Younggwon would break the deadlock in the 91st minute off a corner - but there would be drama, of course there was. The goal was disallowed and marked as offside before referee Mark Geiger went to video review to determine the goal was legal. Germany sent everyone forward including goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, who would abandon his goal. Son Heung-min scored South Korea’s second on the counter late in stoppage time to secure his country a win over the No. 1 ranked team.

Analysis: South Korea gave themselves a chance to qualify and may have done so if Mexico had won. They will lament not doing more in their first two matches as their opener against Sweden was decided by a penalty. They will leave with heads held high after a historic win but have plenty to work on if they want to make noise at Qatar 2022. Given that the next World Cup takes place in their continent, it would be their best chance to go far.

Germany, on their end, will end in embarrassment as this team becomes the most unsuccessful in recent history. The last time the Germans bowed out in the opening stage was at France 1938. The silver lining? When Germany were embarrassed by exiting the 2000 European Championship in the group stage, their reaction was to re-evaluate their shortcomings to produce one of their most successful generations. In my opinion, recent champions have failed to incorporate more youth in their squads to replenish their championship-winning sides instead of returning with virtually the same squad - just four years older. Expect Germany to come back strong and give way to younger players as the USA has done.

Notable stat: The defending champion has failed to move past the group phase for the third-straight World Cup and for the fourth time in the last five editions.

Serbia 0-2 Brazil

Spartak Stadium, Moscow

Attendance: 44,190

The possibilities for Brazil ranged from winning the group to potential elimination entering Wednesday. For Serbia, a win was a must to advance. Given what has already transpired in this World Cup, Brazil were not going to test their luck and wanted to secure a win as fast as possible. The five-time champions constantly pressed forward with their high-speed attack and took the lead in the 36th minute. Paulinho would be the man to get the goal, one he hit with a delicate poke to pop it over Serbian goalkeeper Vladimir Stojkovic.

The Verde-Amarela would continue to press in the second half with Neymar while Mitrovic would lead the attack for the Serbians. Brazil would get their second goal off a corner, converted by defender Thiago Silva in the 68th minute. Brazil would continue to push for a third up until the final minute but the match would end with the 2-0 score.

Analysis: Serbia had it though in this group and could not come away with the result they needed in the end. Given that the loss against Brazil was expected, their wasted opportunity came by not beating Switzerland. This is a disappointing outing for a side that could have returned to their first round of 16 since France 1998. The only way to turn this around? Build on this result and qualify to Euro 2020.

Brazil, on the other hand, is looking good and morphing into the favorite most painted them as. The only pushback against them should be that they weren’t tested much but it’s not their fault who they were pit against. It should say something, however, that Brazil have not suffered as much as other non-European nations and that bodes well for their title hopes. Historically, Brazil has not struggled to adapt to different continents - winning a World Cup in four different ones - and are the only non-European side to win a World Cup hosted on European soil. If Brazil win this edition, they will have certainly earned it as they are forced to navigate the strong side of the bracket.

Notable stat: Brazil went through the group stage undefeated for the fifth consecutive World Cup, last losing a group match at France 1998.

Switzerland 2-2 Costa Rica

Nizhny Novgorod Stadium, Nizhny Novgorod

Attendance: 43,319

Switzerland knew a win would secure their ticket into the next round and the rest would be decided by what happened between Brazil-Serbia. Costa Rica, already eliminated, seeked redemption with a win on their way out. It would be the Central Americans who were strong in attack early on but a few unlucky plays, including hitting the top post, kept the match scoreless. Switzerland broke through in the 31st minute goal from Blerim Dzemaili to put things at 1-0, and that’s how the teams would arrive to halftime.

Kendall Waston would tie things in the 56th minute with a goal in his first World Cup start. Josip Drmic would regain the lead for the Swiss in the 88th minute. Costa Rica had an opportunity to equalize late thanks to a penalty. Bryan Ruiz’s shot hit the top post before bouncing off the back of the head of Swiss goalkeeper Yann Sommer. The match would end 2-2, a result that sent Switzerland through as the group’s second best team.

Analysis: Switzerland are through but are also swaying like a drunk into the knockout round. The biggest downside of their draw with Costa Rica is that they will be without two defenders due to yellow card accumulation, something that doesn’t bode well for them. The upside? They are on the soft side of the bracket and are pit against a familiar foe in Sweden. Passing as the second place team may turn out to be a blessing but not if they play like they did Wednesday.

Costa Rica, though, will leave with disappointment. They were unable to build on their Cinderella run in the last World Cup but didn’t even look like a side worthy to advance. Competing with Mexico and the United States, Costa Rica has not shown the consistency to carry the cache those countries have (and, yes, I know the USA missed the World Cup). They may remain as the better Central American country but they will fail to go far without more players gaining minutes in quality European leagues - and that, to me, is why they lacked quality at Russia 2018.

Notable stat: Costa Rica was the last team to score at Russia 2018, 426 minutes removed from Bryan Ruiz’s goal against Greece at Brazil 2014.

Upcoming Matches (All Times CT):

Thursday, June 27

9 a.m. - [Group H] Japan vs. Poland (FS1, NBC Universo)

9 a.m. - [Group H] Senegal vs. Colombia (FOX, Telemundo)

1 p.m. - [Group G] Panama vs. Tunisia (FS1, NBC Universo)

1 p.m. - [Group G] England vs. Belgium (FOX, Telemundo)

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Have the Astros turned a corner? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.

After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.

Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.

While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.

Caratini comes through!

So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.

Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.

Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.

Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.

Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…

Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.

Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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