FALCON POINTS
Get your gamble on: A look at the contenders for Saturday's Belmont Stakes and the undercard
Jun 18, 2020, 12:20 pm
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Saturday marks an unusual running of the Belmont Stakes. Usually the final leg of the Triple Crown and run at a mile and a half, this year it will be the first of the Crown Jewels and will be run at a mile and an eighth.
While that should have resulted in a stellar field, this group is pretty lackluster, with the exception of morning-line favorite Tiz The Law, who was impressive with two big wins in Florida.
The question will be if a horse wins all three races, will it be considered a true Triple Crown? Most pundits say no. Most pundits are wrong. (Yes, asterisk guy, that means you).
If a horse can win all three of those races spread out over five months with races in between, it will have accomplished a feat arguably more difficult than the standard Triple Crown. Of the horses in the field, only Tiz The Law looks even remotely capable of that, although many have room for significant improvement.
My premium plays on the card will be available at pregame.com, but here is a look at some potential wagers:
THE UNDERCARD
The second race on the card is the Grade I Woody Stephens, which is a race we hammered last year with 18-1 shot Hog Creek Hustle. There is a horse that fits the exact same profile; turning back in distance after chasing some solid Triple Crown hopefuls at Oaklawn. He is the only true closer in a race filled with front-running burners, and the price will be right. No. 5 Shoplifted will be our play in this one. He is 8-1 morning line but it is only a five-horse field so he will likely be bet down.
In Race 4, the Pennine Ridge, I like the No. 1 horse Decorated Invader, but he will be a short price.
In Race 6, the Wonder Again, I will play the No. 1 Speaktomeofsummer, an 8-1 shot.
In Race 8, the Grade I Acorn, the No. 2 Lucrezia is the play at 9-2.
In Race 9, Stubbins is the key horse at 3-1.
THE BIG RACE
It will be hard to get around No. 8 Tiz the Law. He is four for five lifetime, with his only loss coming by less than a length at Churchill Downs. He is the only horse in the field with a 100 Beyer for his win in the Holy Bull, and he dominated the Florida Derby.
But if you want to take a stand against him, he hasn't raced since March, his Beyers other than the Holy Bull are not that impressive, and the horses he beat there don't appear to be much. That said, he should be very tough here. The horses that could improve enough to get him include No.1 Tap It To Win, who has been much better as a 3 year old than as a juvenile; Sole Volante (2), Max Player (3), Modernist (4) and Dr. Post (9). The intriguing horse, however, is No. 5 Farmington Road. He has been stuck in outside posts at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds, which is darn near impossible to overcome, and still ran credible races. His last race he raced wide against an inside, speed favoring track in a race won by Nadal, who would be favored here if he had not retired. He is probably more likely to run second or third, but an exacta or trifecta with him in it could be very profitable, even with the Tiz the Law on top. He is 15-1 morning line and will be every bit that price. He will have to close, but the race should set up for him, he has a recency edge and has faced top runners.
Tap it To Win could be real trouble if he makes the early lead. He has a wire-to-wire recent win over the surface, which is a big advantage. The others are all horses that could hit the board and should be used in exactas and trifectas.
So good luck with Saturday's races, and keep your asterisks to yourself.
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NFL insiders hint at eye-opening future for Houston Texans offense
Dec 7, 2024, 2:38 pm
C.J. Stroud faced criticism in Houston's last few games as the Texans hit a rough patch after losing just two of their first eight games.
But the second-year quarterback remained confident and his strong performance last Sunday helped the Texans (8-5) to a 23-20 win over the Jaguars to enter their bye with a two-game lead atop the AFC South.
“When he is leading and playing the way he is playing, our entire team feeds off of him,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “I am excited for his second year. I think he is showing a ton of growth, he is in a really great spot for us physically, mentally. I really love where he is and I am excited to see how he comes back after the break.”
Stroud threw for 242 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville to leave him ranked fourth in the NFL with 3,117 yards passing this season. That game came after he threw two interceptions in a 32-27 loss to Tennessee a week before for the team’s third loss in four games.
Those two interceptions brought his season total to nine, which are four more than he threw in 15 games a rookie. But the Texans aren’t worried about that statistic and believe he has grown in his second year.
“He’s made a lot of progress,” general manager Nick Caserio said. “There are some plays, like all of our players, that we probably wish he could have back, but happy he’s our quarterback, happy with what he brings to the table. ... Wouldn’t want anyone else leading this team.”
The Texans are in position to win their division for a second straight season despite dealing with several significant injuries on offense. Running back Joe Mixon missed three games early with an ankle injury and leading receiver Nico Collins was sidelined for five games with a hamstring injury.
They also lost four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs for the season when tore an ACL in Week 8.
Mixon leads the team with 887 yards rushing and 11 touchdowns and has added four touchdown receptions. His work in his first season in Houston after a trade from Cincinnati has helped the team deal with those significant injuries to the receiving corps.
Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing in seven games.
Stroud has continually raved about Mixon’s contributions on and off the field.
“He’s a servant, a helper,” Stroud said. “That’s ultimately what I want to be as well. Who can I serve and how can I help? That’s ultimately what the game of football is.”
While Mixon has been the team’s most important new acquisition on offense, Danielle Hunter has been Houston’s new defensive star. The defensive end spent his first eight seasons in Minnesota before joining the Texans this year.
He has helped Houston lead the NFL with 84 tackles for loss after piling up 15 this season, which is tied for third most in the league. He also leads the Texans with 10½ sacks to help them rank second with 42.
Hunter been a great addition to a team that already had defensive end Will Anderson Jr., last year’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year. Anderson ranks second to Hunter on the team with 13 tackles for loss and 9½ sacks.
Ryans said this week’s break is much needed for a team that opened the preseason on Aug. 1 in the Hall of Fame game.
“It’s here and we’re going to take advantage of it,” he said. “We’ve been going at it for a long time.”
The Texans need to recharge this week with a brutal stretch of three games in 10 days when they return from their bye. Houston hosts Miami on Dec. 15 before a trip to Kansas City on Dec. 21 and a visit from the Ravens on Christmas Day.
“It’s Christmas and all that, but we can’t worry about that. All we can do is focus on Miami,” Caserio said. “And then when we get through the Miami game, then we kind of turn the page to the next. ... We’re either going to earn it or we’re not. Not to oversimplify it, but that’s the truth.”
The Texans will play those game without starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair after he received a three-game suspension for his violent hit to the head of Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, which led to a concussion.
Al-Shaair will be eligible to return for Houston’s regular-season finale against Tennessee.