FALCON POINTS
Get your gamble on: A look at the contenders for Saturday's Belmont Stakes and the undercard
Jun 18, 2020, 12:20 pm
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Saturday marks an unusual running of the Belmont Stakes. Usually the final leg of the Triple Crown and run at a mile and a half, this year it will be the first of the Crown Jewels and will be run at a mile and an eighth.
While that should have resulted in a stellar field, this group is pretty lackluster, with the exception of morning-line favorite Tiz The Law, who was impressive with two big wins in Florida.
The question will be if a horse wins all three races, will it be considered a true Triple Crown? Most pundits say no. Most pundits are wrong. (Yes, asterisk guy, that means you).
If a horse can win all three of those races spread out over five months with races in between, it will have accomplished a feat arguably more difficult than the standard Triple Crown. Of the horses in the field, only Tiz The Law looks even remotely capable of that, although many have room for significant improvement.
My premium plays on the card will be available at pregame.com, but here is a look at some potential wagers:
THE UNDERCARD
The second race on the card is the Grade I Woody Stephens, which is a race we hammered last year with 18-1 shot Hog Creek Hustle. There is a horse that fits the exact same profile; turning back in distance after chasing some solid Triple Crown hopefuls at Oaklawn. He is the only true closer in a race filled with front-running burners, and the price will be right. No. 5 Shoplifted will be our play in this one. He is 8-1 morning line but it is only a five-horse field so he will likely be bet down.
In Race 4, the Pennine Ridge, I like the No. 1 horse Decorated Invader, but he will be a short price.
In Race 6, the Wonder Again, I will play the No. 1 Speaktomeofsummer, an 8-1 shot.
In Race 8, the Grade I Acorn, the No. 2 Lucrezia is the play at 9-2.
In Race 9, Stubbins is the key horse at 3-1.
THE BIG RACE
It will be hard to get around No. 8 Tiz the Law. He is four for five lifetime, with his only loss coming by less than a length at Churchill Downs. He is the only horse in the field with a 100 Beyer for his win in the Holy Bull, and he dominated the Florida Derby.
But if you want to take a stand against him, he hasn't raced since March, his Beyers other than the Holy Bull are not that impressive, and the horses he beat there don't appear to be much. That said, he should be very tough here. The horses that could improve enough to get him include No.1 Tap It To Win, who has been much better as a 3 year old than as a juvenile; Sole Volante (2), Max Player (3), Modernist (4) and Dr. Post (9). The intriguing horse, however, is No. 5 Farmington Road. He has been stuck in outside posts at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds, which is darn near impossible to overcome, and still ran credible races. His last race he raced wide against an inside, speed favoring track in a race won by Nadal, who would be favored here if he had not retired. He is probably more likely to run second or third, but an exacta or trifecta with him in it could be very profitable, even with the Tiz the Law on top. He is 15-1 morning line and will be every bit that price. He will have to close, but the race should set up for him, he has a recency edge and has faced top runners.
Tap it To Win could be real trouble if he makes the early lead. He has a wire-to-wire recent win over the surface, which is a big advantage. The others are all horses that could hit the board and should be used in exactas and trifectas.
So good luck with Saturday's races, and keep your asterisks to yourself.
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What were the takeaways from the Texans-Panthers preseason game?
We’re getting close to cuts, so the stakes are high with one last chance to make a lasting impression in the final preseason game. In the Texans’ win over Carolina, the biggest takeaway was the offensive line and running game — they looked good. Pass protection held up, and C.J. Stroud put together a nice touchdown drive capped off with a fourth-down throw to Nico Collins. Both rookies Jayden Higgins and Jalen Noel caught passes, and Nick Chubb looked sharp running with the starters.
How did the O-line look?
The line already looks much improved from last season. Pass protection was solid, run blocking was effective, and they were able to grind out yards while giving Stroud a clean pocket. Rookie Aireontae Ersery continues to impress, and there’s a real chance he ends up as the starting left tackle over big ticket free agent Cam Robinson. Robinson is back at practice, but Ersery has looked good with the first unit — and he was drafted to take Laremy Tunsil’s spot anyway, so why not speed up the process?
In practice the starters have been LT Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews, RG Ed Ingram, and RT Tytus Howard. If Robinson slides back to left tackle, Ersery could move to right tackle with Howard shifting inside to guard. It’ll be interesting to see what combo the Texans roll out against the Rams in Week 1.
Did the running backs impress?
Chubb looked good behind the line, finishing with 5 carries for 25 yards and a reception. He seemed comfortable in the scheme and showed some burst — it’s obvious he knows what he’s doing. If Joe Mixon isn’t ready for the start of the season, Houston should be in good hands with Chubb.
Damien Pierce is still out, which has given rookie Woody Marks more opportunity. He made the most of it with 40 yards on 7 carries against Carolina. He’s also shown he can help on third down with his ability in the passing game, which could earn him a real role.
How did the receivers look?
Rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel both caught passes. Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and Justin Watson each added a couple of grabs too. Based on last year, Stroud tends to funnel targets to his top two options. A season ago it was Collins and Stefon Diggs before injuries hit. This year, Kirk looks capable of filling that Diggs role out of the slot. He just fits.
Reaction to the John Metchie–Harrison Bryant trade
The Texans needed more tight end depth with Brevin Jordan hurt, and Metchie wasn’t going to make the team. Bryant gives them another option, and it looks like tight ends may play a bigger role in the offense after Irv Smith Jr. led the team in catches and yards against Carolina.
Special teams also factored in. Metchie doesn’t play there, while Braxton Berrios and Justin Watson do, which gives the Texans more flexibility. Collins, Kirk, Higgins, Noel, and Hutchinson all look like locks at receiver, so moving Metchie made sense. It will be interesting to see who the final pieces will be in the Texans receiver room. Will they keep Watson and/or Berrios? We'll find out on Tuesday when the final cuts are made. Stay tuned!
What to watch for against the Lions
It’s all about the offense at this point. The defense is expected to be elite, so the spotlight shifts to Stroud and the rest of the unit. If the offensive line holds up against Detroit and the operation looks sharp, the Texans should be well-positioned to open the regular season on the right foot.
There's so much more to break down! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The NFL season is almost upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Texans on Tap podcast, which drops each Thursday during the preseason! More episodes will ramp up when the regular season begins! We'll go live on YouTube after every regular-season game.
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