JOHN GRANATO
Hate to say I told you so. No I don't. The Texans are good. Damn good
Dec 6, 2018, 8:21 am
A month ago the Texans were at the halfway point of the season. They had won five straight games. I wrote on this very website that they would breeze through the rest of the schedule unbeaten and be the top seed in the AFC. They are four games away from that.
To get there of course the Texans will have to win out but they will also need the Chiefs to lose twice. That’s not out of the realm of possibility. They’ve got the Ravens this week followed by the Chargers, at the Seahawks and home for the Raiders. The Ravens have the league’s best defense and a weapon no one else has in Lamar Jackson. The Chargers have been playing as well as anyone and the Seahawks are playing well and own arguably the best home field advantage. The Raiders are the Raiders but that’s a rivalry game and you never know.
The Patriots have to lose once. They go to Miami this week where they historically struggle late in the year and they have to go to Pittsburgh next week. That’s never easy. If they haven’t lost by then they won’t. Their last two are at home against the Jets and Bills. Two gimmies.
I’ve heard over and over how the Texans are in the second tier of AFC hierarchy. There’s the Chiefs and the Patriots then the Texans, Chargers and Steelers.
Why is that? Why is a team that’s got the longest win streak in the league thought to be a second tier team?
The answer keeps coming back one thing: Bill O’Brien.
I suppose that’s fair.
In his four-plus seasons with the Texans it’s tough to pinpoint a signature win. The Raiders playoff victory rings a little hollow. Connor Cook was their starter. It was the first time in NFL history that a quarterback made his first career start in the playoffs. It showed.
O’Brien lost his other two playoff games.
In 2015 the Texans went into Cincinnati and beat an 8-0 Bengals team on Monday Night Football. It wasn’t exactly a thing of beauty. Brian Hoyer and T.J. Yates put up 10 points but that was enough to beat the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton. The Bengals went on to win 12 games that year but lost in their only playoff game as they are wont to do.
In 2016 the Texans beat the Chiefs in the second week of the season. The Chiefs went on to win 12 games that year but lost their only playoff game to the Steelers.
Last year the Texans put up 57 on the Titans who went on to the second round of the playoffs but they were still the Titans, not exactly NFL royalty.
This year’s win over Dallas is looking better and better. The Cowboys are 7-5 now, leading the NFC East and it’s always good to beat those people. At the time it didn’t look like either team would be considered very good at any point this season. Times have changed.
The Saints had a 10 game win streak that ended against those Cowboys last Thursday. It’s cliche but on any given Sunday (or Thursday) you can lose in the NFL so to win nine in a row is something of an accomplishment. And like it or not Bill O’Brien is the guy who got you there.
Whether it’s his postgame demeanor, his conservative late game play calling, his clock management, his flag gaffes or the hole in his chin, there’s a reason that Bill O’Brien has not won this city over.
He won me over a couple of weeks ago with this quote.
“I think Thanksgiving is awesome. It’s football. It’s turkey. It’s stuffing. It’s a couple of Coors Lights and watch some football.”
That’s a man I can trust.
But will we be saying that about him this postseason? We’ll get a preview of what that’ll be like this last month. The Colts’ backs are against the wall after that disaster in Jacksonville last week. This Sunday’s game will not be easy. The Jets are the Jets. The Texans should win that one. But then they’ve got to go to Philly who may be playing for their playoff lives. Now that will be a signature win, maybe O’Brien’s biggest ever. If things play out right, it could mean a Texans playoff bye, the organization’s first.
That would be huge.
Of course it could all fall apart. They could lose these last four and finish right where almost everyone thought they would: 9-7.
That’s not going to happen. Bill O’Brien and this team have turned a corner. They’re better than you want to give them credit for. They’re as good as any team in the AFC. That’s right. They’re as good as the Chiefs. They can beat them.
There are two reasons why. They can get after the quarterback and make a young guy look bad (see Baker Mayfield last week) and they have number 4. While DeShaun hasn’t been other worldly like I thought he’d be coming into this season, he’s been pretty darned good. And he saves his best for the biggest games.
This team has turned a corner. It’s about time this fanbase did. You younger readers won’t remember the 11 straight Oilers wins to close out the 1993 season. This city was on fire. All everyone could talk about was that Oilers team. Of course they disappointed us all with a loss to Joe Montana and the Chiefs but it was still one helluva ride.
This one; not so much. I’ve never seen the stadium emptier than at the start of the Monday night game against the Titans. I know it was a work and school day but that was a huge game. The stadium filled up but this isn’t the Rockets. People should be in their seats for the start of Texans games.
We only get two, maybe three calls a show about the Texans. Maybe.
Come on people. Where’s the excitement for a nine game win streak?
We’re not known for being a great sports town but I’ve always said that this city will get behind a team if we think it’s got a chance to win it all. We have for the Rockets and Astros.
Time to get behind this Texans team. It can go where no Houston pro football team has gone before: The Super Bowl.
That’s right. I said it.
If not it’s still a great building block season, kind of like the ‘15 Astros. They got to the postseason but just weren’t ready to win it yet. That would be fine. It gave them that experience they took advantage of two years later.
It feels like there’s been that kind of culture change with these Texans. Games they would have lost in the past they are winning now and that’s all that matters. It doesn’t have to be pretty. Remember: all’s well that ends well and these games have been ending well.
And this team looks like it’s built to last. With Brian Gaine calling the draft shots now it just feels different. They actually found three third round draft picks who can play; Justin Reid, Martinas Rankins and Jordan Akins. In years past they cut their third rounders before the season started. Let’s see what he can do with first and second round picks.
All in all this is turning into a great season. Let’s put the 0-3 start behind us. I know that’s still a wound that won’t heal for a lot of fans.
Get over it people. This team is 9-3.
Let’s start acting like it.
Each football game of a season carries much more weight than one game in a 162 Major League Baseball schedule. That reality, combined with the National Football League campaign opening and with it the most anticipated season in Texans’ history, the Astros are relegated to second banana this weekend. Just the way it goes despite the Astros’ phenomenal extended run from 10 games out of first place in mid-June to now having control of the American League West race and a likely (though definitely not yet certain) eighth consecutive year of postseason play.
It is reality that getting swept out of Cincinnati cost the Astros two games in the standings to Seattle the last two days and trimmed their division lead to four and a half games going into this weekend. There was nothing shameful about getting swept. It’s not as if they choked. They got outplayed and beaten in all three games. Stuff happens within a 162-game season. The 2019 Astros were vastly better than the 2024 Astros. The 2019 ‘Stros posted the best record in franchise history at 107-55. In Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole they had the two best pitchers in the AL. The Reds finished 75-87 in ’19. In the lone Astros-Reds series five years ago, Verlander and Cole started two of the three games. The Reds swept the Astros out of Cincy by scores of 3-2, 4-3, and 3-2. Stuff happens. The following week the Astros called up Yordan Alvarez. There is no Yordan coming to fortify the offense now, but wait! Is that Kyle Tucker's music?
The Astros host the NL champs this weekend
It’s highly unlikely but it’s still a possible World Series preview at Minute Maid Park this weekend with the Astros home for three games versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reigning National League Champions woke up under .500 July 11, but since then have been sizzling with 33 wins against just 15 losses. Over the same time frame the Astros are 27-21. The Diamondbacks by a large margin have scored the most runs in MLB this season, and that’s while playing the last nearly three weeks without Ketel Marte because of a high ankle sprain. Marte has been far and away the best second baseman in the game this year. He may return this weekend in a designated hitter role. The Arizona offense overall has been sensational, however it has vulnerability against left-handed pitching, in significant part because it typically takes lefty-hitting platoon beast Joc Pederson out of the lineup. The D’Backs are 55-35 in games facing right-handed starters, just 24-27 in games started by opposing southpaws. The Astros have lefties Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi set to go in the first two games this weekend. While the Astros deal with the Diamondbacks the Mariners are in St. Louis for three against the Cardinals.
Eleven Diamondbacks have had at least 200 plate appearances this season. Only one of them has an OPS below .725. The Astros also have 11 guys with at least 200 PAs. Five of them lug around sub-.715 OPSes: Jeremy Pena (.714), Jake Meyers (.664), Mauricio Dubon (.645), Jon Singleton (.697), and Chas McCormick (.566).
Maximizing Tucker's return
Speaking of returns, Tucker fiiiiiiinally should see action for the first time since his June 3 bone bruise. Oh wait, broken leg. Shame on the Astros for their BSing over this and other injuries. Yeah, Alex Bregman slept funny. Whatever. To boost the lineup Tucker doesn’t have to be the .979 OPS MVP candidate he was when felled. Ben Gamel has done some good work, but over time he’s Ben Gamel. Same for Jason Heyward. If Tucker's legs are under him his power is a B-12 shot and only Yordan is in his league in on-base percentage. Joe Espada has decisions to make as to how slot the batting order. Against a right-handed starter Jose Altuve, Tucker, Alvarez, Yainer Diaz, Bregman one through five makes sense with Tucker dropping down below Yainer against a left-handed starter. No question those are the top five in some order. How much of a workload Tucker is ready for bears watching. Presumably he doesn’t initially play the outfield day in day out. When Tucker DHs obviously Bregman (and Yordan) can’t so Alex’s ailing elbow holding up is key. One might say hopefully the bone chips don’t fall where they may. Tuesday the Astros start a stretch playing 16 days in a row.
Keep hope alive!
If you’re an Astros fan holding out hope of chasing down the second seed to avoid having to play the best-of-three Wild Card series, say it with me, whatever nausea it may induce: “Go Dodgers Go!” Hurt as it might, business is business. The Dodgers play host to the Guardians. The Astros trail Cleveland by five games with just 22 to play, but do finish the regular season with three games at Cleveland. It's pretty much over for the Astros to catch both the Orioles and Yankees.
Season-long trends mean nothing once the playoffs start, and that’s a good thing for the Astros provided they are in the playoffs. They continue to flat out stink in close games. Thursday’s 1-0 loss to the Reds has the Astros record in one-run games at 15-24. In two-run games they are 10-14. Correlatively, the Astros also continue to routinely fail late in close games. The Astros have played 14 games that were tied after seven innings. They have lost 11 of the 14. In games tied after eight innings they are 7-13. Every team loses an extremely high percentage of games when trailing after eight innings, but the Astros haven’t pulled out a single game they’ve trailed going to the ninth. 0-50. Oh and fifty. But hey, the White Sox are 0-92!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.