WINNING COMES AT A PRICE
Here’s the one problem that is still stumping MLB’s most successful analytics guru
Nov 10, 2020, 2:53 pm
Sorry goes a long way. Composite image by Jack Brame.
You know Earth is about to spin off its axis when the sitting President of the United States is suing to have a free election overturned … and that's only the second most-stupifying court case on the docket.
Disgraced Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow is suing the Astros for breach of contract and $22 million. Luhnow claims that Astros owner Jim Crane unjustly fired him as part of a shady deal with MLB commissioner Rob Manfred that allowed the Astros to keep their 2017 World Series title.
The lawsuit is a 17-page document filed in Harris County District Court. Here's the Cliff's Notes version: Luhnow says he was an innocent scapegoat in a "negotiated settlement" between the Astros and Manfred. Luhnow claims that he had "no knowledge" and "played no part" in the Astros sign-stealing scheme during 2017 and 2018.
Luhnow wants the Astros to pay him the guaranteed $22 million in salary, performance bonuses, profits, interest and benefits he lost when Crane fired him (along with team manager A.J. Hinch) last January.
Luhnow claims that MLB's investigation into the scandal included interviews with 70 witnesses, and only one, a mid-level Astros executive, fingered Luhnow as the culprit. Luhnow says the Astros employee was told he could keep his job if he ratted out Luhnow.
In collateral damage, Astros manager A.J. Hinch and Boston manager Alex Cora also lost their jobs because of their involvement in the scandal. Cora was the Astros bench manager during 2017. After that season, Cora was hired to manage the Red Sox and guided them to the World Series title in 2018.
Hinch immediately apologized for not doing more to stop the Astros from illegally stealing signs. Cora eventually apologized, too. Luhnow never admitted any guilt and protested his innocence, from the start and more recently in an exclusive interview with Channel 2 sports reporter Vanessa Richardson. The day after Luhnow's interview ran on air, Manfred stood his ground, saying, "He (Luhnow) damaged the game and as a result he was disciplined."
Now that the dust has somewhat settled, Hinch is the new manager of the Detroit Tigers, and Cora is back as manager of the Red Sox.
And unapologetic Jeff Luhnow? Elton John was right, sorry really does seem to be the hardest word. Even if Luhnow is telling the truth and didn't know about the Astros' shenanigans, and it's possible he didn't, he was the boss and should suck it up and accept the consequences.
Hinch and Cora took their lumps and now they're back. Luhnow, by suing the Astros and attacking the commissioner, well, good luck finding another job in baseball.
Sorry goes a long way. Tiger Woods owned up to his "infidelities" and "affairs," and it looked like millions of cheering fans followed him up the 18th fairway of the 2019 Masters, all forgiven.
Alex Rodriguez admitted that he lied about taking steroids and cheating baseball, served his suspension, and offered a hand-written apology to fans. Today A-Rod is practically the face of baseball, working for both ESPN and Fox. He's a multi-gazillionaire on ABC's Shark Tank. Oh, and he's engaged to Jennifer Lopez.
Kobe Bryant was accused of sexual assault. He tearfully apologized to his wife in public, saying "I sit here in front of you guys, furious at myself, disgusted in myself, for making the mistake of adultery." For that, plus his tragic death, he's Saint Kobe.
Remember when Andy Pettitte nearly broke down in tears admitting that he took a performance enhancing substance (HGH)? He was welcomed back to baseball. The next time he took the mound, fans gave him a standing ovation.
Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro and Barry Bonds have never admitted knowingly taking steroids. Whether they did or not, despite their historic careers, it's unlikely they'll be voted into baseball's Hall of Fame.
Pete Rose lied so many times about betting on baseball that when he ultimately fessed up, he was a lost cause and he'll never see Cooperstown, either. Same with Lance Armstrong, too late to salvage his reputation and legacy.
I know that it would kill Luhnow to apologize for his role in the Astros scandal, especially if he deep down believes that he's innocent. Remember what the famous legal scholar George Costanza said, "It's not a lie if you believe it."
Innocent or guilty, Luhnow would have been better off, possibly running a big league baseball team today, if he had said "sorry." He may never recover professionally, at least not in MLB, from suing the Astros. Baseball owners stick together.
These days, if someone says to me, "Why did you …?," I immediately apologize. "You're right, I'm sorry. I'll never do it again. Now tell me what I did."
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With the Astros now officially ten games under .500 for the season, manager Joe Espada is taking a lot of heat from the fanbase for the team's struggles.
While we don't agree with the sentiment, we even hear fans clamoring for the return of Dusty Baker and Martin Maldonado, thinking the Astros wouldn't be in this mess if they were still here.
Which is ridiculous. First of all, Maldonado has been awful for the White Sox, hitting .048 (even worse than Jose Abreu's .065). And for those of you that think his work with the pitching staff justifies his pathetic offense. Let me say this: Where was Maldy's game calling genius for Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Framber Valdez last year? All of them regressed significantly.
And as far as Baker is concerned, we have no idea how much a difference he would make, we can only speculate. Baker would also be dealing with a pitching staff ravaged with injuries. And let's not forget, Baker was the guy that refused to move Jose Abreu down in the batting order, even though he would finish the regular season with the ninth-worst OPS in baseball.
The reality of the situation is managers can only do so much in baseball. Which leads us to something else that needs to be considered. Is Espada being handcuffed by the front office? Espada and GM Dana Brown both said recently that Jon Singleton was going to get more at-bats while they give Abreu time off to try to figure things out. Yet, there Abreu was in the lineup again in the opening game of the Cubs series.
It makes us wonder how much power does Espada truly have? The Astros have some other options at first base. Yainer Diaz may only have eight games played at the position, but how much worse could he be than Abreu defensively? Abreu already has four errors, and Diaz is obviously a way better hitter. Victor Caratini isn't considered a plus offensive player, but his .276 batting average makes him look like Babe Ruth compared to Abreu. Let him catch more often and play Diaz at first. Starting Diaz at first more often could also lengthen his career long-term.
Maybe that's too wild of a move. Okay, fine. How about playing Mauricio Dubon at first base? I understand he doesn't have much experience at that position, but what's the downside of trying him there? If he can play shortstop, he can play first base. He's driving in runs at a higher rate (11 RBIs) than everyone on the team outside of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. And he's producing like that as part-time player right now.
The other criticism we see of Espada is his use of Jon Singleton to pinch hit late in games. Let's be real, though, who else does Espada have on the roster to go to? Batting Abreu late in games in which you're trailing should be considered malpractice. Espada can only use who he has to work with. This all really stems from the Astros poor farm system.
They don't have anyone else to turn to. The draft picks the club lost from the sign-stealing scandal are really hurting them right now. First and second rounders from 2020 and 2021 should be helping you in 2024 at the big league level.
Maybe they go to Astros prospect Joey Loperfido soon, but after a hot start he has only two hits in his last six games.
Finally, we have to talk about what seems like a committee making baseball decisions. Lost in a committee is accountability. Who gets the blame for making poor decisions?
As time continues to pass it looks like moving on from former GM James Click was a massive mistake. He's the guy that didn't sign Abreu, but did trade Myles Straw (recently DFA'd) for Yainer Diaz and Phil Maton. He also built an elite bullpen without breaking the bank, and helped the club win a World Series in 2022.
The reality of the situation is Dusty Baker and James Click are not walking back through that door. And all good runs come to an end at some point. Is this what we're witnessing?
Don't miss the video above as we hit on all the points discussed and much more!
Catch Stone Cold 'Stros (an Astros podcast) with Charlie Pallilo, Brandon Strange, and Josh Jordan. We drop two episodes every week on SportsMapHouston's YouTube channel. You can also listen on Apple Podcast, Spotifyor wherever you get your podcasts.