THE PALLILOG

Here's what the Rockets-Lakers series could come down to

Composite photo by Brandon Strange

The late college basketball coach Jim Valvano coined the phrase "survive and advance" to characterize all that matters in the NCAA Tournament. The Rockets borrowed "survive and advance" in getting past Oklahoma City to earn their shot at the Lakers in round two of the NBA Playoffs starting Friday night. A first round elimination at the hands of Chris Paul and the Thunder would have been a disaster for the Rockets. Would have been.

It is no miracle if the Rockets take down the Lakers to reach the Western Conference Final for the second time in three years, but the Lakers are better. At 35 years old LeBron James remains an amazing force, but it's Anthony Davis for whom the Rockets have zero answers. If A.D. is on his A game he'll destroy the Rockets inside and out. The Rockets are a poor rebounding team, so is Oklahoma City. The Lakers are one of the better rebounding squads in the NBA.

There are beacons of hope for the Rockets' cause. The Lakers do not have a physical and quick guard a la OKC's Luguentz Dort to disrupt James Harden. Their best perimeter defender is Avery Bradley, who opted to skip the NBA bubble. Harden's tremendous block of Dort's shot that could have ended the Rockets' season saved Harden from being pilloried for another elimination game woeful offensive performance. Maybe that which did not kill him makes Harden stronger.

The Lakers are not a good three point shooting team. Neither are the Rockets, who bank on decent mega-volume three point shooting to swing the math in their direction. As always, in a short series of games the big picture stats can be rendered irrelevant.

Lakers in six, to set up an all L.A. in Orlando Western Conference Final vs. the Clippers who should make quick work of the Nuggets.

Astros hit the road

The Astros want to win their division but compared to normal seasons it just isn't a big deal. Getting and keeping Alex Bregman healthy is much more important. Jose Altuve has been horrible in this short season, but his leaving Thursday's game and needing an MRI of his surgically repaired right knee is not good news. After four games in Anaheim this weekend against the awful Angels over the Astros have a five game series with the A's in Oakland. Win three of five or better from the A's and the Astros could reclaim the division. If not, probably not. But the Astros are a virtual lock to make the eight team American League field and that's all that really matters.

NFL is right around the corner

With no preseason games (yay!) and the NBA and NHL playoffs ongoing, the NFL regular season seemingly sneaks up on us more than ever before. The Texans have the toughest opening threesome of games in the league starting at the Chiefs, home for the Ravens, then at the Steelers. At Kansas City probably means the Texans start 0-1. They did win at Arrowhead Stadium during the regular season last year. You may recall it worked out differently in the playoff game. The Chiefs are allowing 22 percent seat usage for their first three home games. Normally one of the loudest crowds in the NFL, fewer than 17-thousand on hand this time make one part of the Texans' task simpler.

I don't know if there's an over under for games played by J.J. Watt this season, but he better go over. Without him the Texans defense is simply weak. With the now 31-year-old Watt the Texan D won't be special, but he is still usually a difference maker. I doubt Watt needs fuel added to his fire for a season opener, but lest he or anyone else have forgotten, 99 was a zero in the playoff embarrassment at K.C. Zero sacks, zero quarterback hits, zero solo tackles, zero assisted tackles. He did tip one Patrick Mahomes pass.

As ever the Texans look no better than a B-list contender in the AFC. If Philip Rivers gives the Colts above average quarterback play I take them over the Texans in the AFC South. Who knows what level Ryan Tannehill settles in at after performing wildly over his head for Titans relative to the rest of his pro career. The Jaguars are a laughingstock. Reminder: over Bill O'Brien's six seasons as Texans' Head Coach, three AFC South franchises have reached the AFC Championship game. Then there are the Texans.

Buzzer Beaters:

1. What an annoyance that Rockets-Lakers game 4 will go head-to-head with the Texans-Chiefs opener.

2. My annual proselytizing for the NHL playoffs: pretty much every year the most intense second by second postseason in sports. Two decisive seventh games Friday, another Saturday!

3. Best Canadian cities (when they let us visit again) Bronze-Vancouver Silver-Montreal Gold-Toronto

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Keep an eye on Tank Dell this Sunday. Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images.

I remember thinking how in the world can these little frail guys survive at the NFL level? I mean, I saw Joe Theismann and Ed McCaffrey's legs snap. Drew Bledsoe got his chest caved in. Seeing 300-plus pound men cry when injured is humbling. So when a guy like Tank Dell comes along, I'm always a bit apprehensive. Especially when they come with a ton of hype.

For every eight to ten big strong players that get hurt, there's one or two little fellas that have relatively healthy careers. The comp that came to mind when looking at Tank was DeSean Jackson. Listed at 5'10 and weighing a heavy 175 pounds, Jackson was arguably the best “small guy” in NFL history. Dell being about two inches shorter and about ten pounds lighter, while also playing a similar role, is in line to be a similarly electrifying type of player. I put my assessment on the line and doubled down with my predictions on what his, and others' season totals will look like last week:

Tank Dell: 68 catches, 1,105 yards and 6 touchdowns- Dell will be a really good slot, but has some outside skills. Namely, his speed. He's more slippery than if Mick had greased that chicken before Rocky tried catching it. I could see his production going up as the season gets longer because Stroud will begin to look for him more and more as they build chemistry. Yes, I know I only have him with six scores. Keep in mind this is a run first offense. At least that's what we can deduce from looking at where it came from in San Francisco.

In his debut game last week vs the Ravens, he notched three catches for 34 yards on four targets. He was tied for third on the team in targets with Noah Brown and Mike Boone. While Robert Woods and Nico Collins were one and two in targets last week, I think Dell will ascend that list starting this week. Word came down that Noah Brown is headed to IR, meaning he'll miss at least the next four weeks. The chemistry he and fellow rookie C.J. Stroud have developed is palpable. From working out together, to attending UH games together, these two seem to have a nice bond already.

Woods is a solid vet two years removed from an ACL injury. Collins was a third rounder with size who hasn't done a whole lot. Dell is easily the most exciting option at receiver this team has. John Metchie III was expected to be the next guy up. Unfortunately, cancer had him take a backseat, until now. Metchie is back at practice this week, so a debut is imminent. He could potentially challenge for more playing time, but it may take him some time to get used to things and get going again.

As far as my statistical prediction for his season, he only needs to average four catches for 67 yards per game, and get a touchdown every two to three games for the remainder of the season. Given Brown being out the next few games, Metchie not quite being up to speed, Woods being an older player on a short-term deal, and Collins not really being what everyone thought he could be, it leaves things wide open for Dell to step up.

Playmakers come in all shapes and sizes. Levon Kirkland was a 300-pound middle linebacker in a 3-4. Doug Flutie led teams to playoff wins as a 5'9 quarterback. In football, size matters. The bigger, stronger guys normally win out. When it comes to receiving and returns, you want speed, quickness, and agility. Dell has that in spades. Add his competitive nature and chemistry with his quarterback and you have a recipe for a star in the making. I know I'm not the only one hoping the Texans continue Tank-ing.

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