BREAKUPS ARE NEVER EASY
Here’s why a James Harden trade could be poison to the NBA, Rockets
Nov 17, 2020, 12:51 pm
It's not about the money this time. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Let's say the Houston Rockets cave to James Harden's demand and trade him to the Brooklyn Nets. That will be one hell of a Big Three – Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and The Beard – in New York City's most populous borough (yes, bigger than Manhattan).
Great for Brooklyn, sure. The Nets would be the overwhelming pick to win the NBA's Eastern Conference. Just like the Miami Heat won four consecutive Eastern Conference titles with their Big Three – LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Like Golden State won three NBA titles with their Big Three – Steph Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson.
Like the Los Angeles Lakers won everything this year with their Big Three – LeBron James, Anthony Davis and anybody else who happened to be on the floor.
Super teams are good for the city where they play. But a bad deal for everybody and everywhere else.
The NBA thrives on superstars and super teams. When TNT and ESPN put together their TV schedules, they're not thinking, "We've got to get more Sacramento games on this year."
The Rockets are in utter chaos, a new coach, new general manager and both its stars want out. The Rockets reportedly are OK starting the season with Harden and Westbrook aboard. It's never a good idea to keep someone in a relationship when they want to be with someone else. Eventually you'll find a "Dear Tilman" note on the kitchen table.
The NFL used to have a goal, on any given Sunday. That's not the NBA, more now than ever, with super teams forming in major markets, or a warm climate with lots of nightlife along South Beach.
There are 30 teams in the NBA, so let's turn back the clock 30 years and count forward. Over the past three decades, two-thirds of NBA teams have not won the NBA title.
That means there are adults, with jobs and families, who own homes and pay taxes … who have never experienced a championship parade in their hometown in their lifetime.
Let's count 'em up: Orlando, Indiana, New York, Charlotte, Atlanta, Milwaukee, Charlotte-New Orleans, Utah, Seattle-OKC, Minnesota, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Baltimore-Washington, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Los Angeles (Clippers), Vancouver-Memphis and Sacramento.
The Vancouver Grizzlies were created in 1995 and moved to Memphis in 2001. The present-day Charlotte Hornets were created in 2004. Neither team has won an NBA title.
The NBA, as we know it, started play in 1946. Some of those cities, like Charlotte, Denver, Sacramento and Atlanta have never even made an NBA Finals.
Harden may never bring a title to Houston. But he is the team's most popular player. He makes the All-NBA team. He wins scoring titles. He gets the biggest cheers at Toyota Center when they announce the starting lineup. Most important, he sells tickets. The Rockets need Harden more than Harden needs the Rockets. The Beard reportedly turned down $50 million a year to stay. You don't need Dr. Phil to tell you that one-way relationships never work out.
If the Rockets trade Harden to Brooklyn, and Westbrook to anywhere they'll take the $130 million left on his contract, don't expect much in return. The Rockets probably will receive a couple of role players and draft picks. Fun fact (OK, maybe not fun): not a single player on the Rockets' current 18-man roster was drafted by Houston. Thanks, Daryl.
Without Harden and Westbrook's star power, the Rockets become just another team – the no-name "other guys" for Shaq, Kenny, Charles and Ernie to explain why they're going to lose. Especially Charles if the Rockets are playing.
How many Indiana Pacers can you name? Sacramento Kings? Orlando Magic?
Next year, Houston Rockets?
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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