UH-OH!

MLB insider provides clarity on Houston Astros roster maneuvers

May 23, 2023, 5:50 pm

At this point in the season, the Jose Abreu signing looks like a mistake. Composite Getty Image.

First baseman and unfulfilling slugger Jose Abreu, the Astros big offseason signing for 2023, is having the worst – by far – year of his career, hitting a paltry .220 with only 17 RBI and absolute zero home runs.

Abreu should consider himself lucky.

Lucky he’s not playing for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Trea Turner, the Phillies lusty $300 million free agent signing for 2023, is hitting .256 with four homers – and he’s getting boo’d out Citizens Bank Park on a nightly basis.

Sample headline from the City of Brotherly Love: “Boos rain down on Turner.”

So far, Astros fans haven’t turned on Abreu. Astros fans are nice. But are they too nice? And how much longer before Abreu – if not already – is hurting the Astros’ chances of repeating as World Series champs? The season is approaching a third-over and Abreu hasn’t cleared the fences one time. It’s not like he’s a slick-fielding first baseman, either.

Abreu has been so disappointing at the plate that the media is stirring up manufactured rumors that the Astros may be interested in signing Eric Hosmer, the first sacker recently released by the Cubs.

I was talking to a baseball insider the other day. I told him how Philly fans are merciless toward Turner, but Astros fans look the other way on Abreu. It’s just the way we are.

The insider told me, “Here’s the difference. If the Phillies decided, for whatever reason, to trade Turner, several teams would be calling them. If the Astros offered up Abreu in a trade, the Astros phone wouldn’t ring. Signing Abreu was a big mistake and the Astros are stuck with his contract for two more years after this.”

Despite his anemic hitting, manager Dusty Baker keeps rolling Abreu out there every game, hitting in a power slot in the lineup despite his .260 slugging percentage and .281 on base percentage. It’s like the only time Abreu sees first base is when the Astros take the field. It feels like the Astros and Abreu are stuck in a bad marriage and they’re only staying together for the children – Sunday is “Kids Run the Bases” day.

Maybe Astros fans’ reaction to Abreu would be different if the team weren’t succeeding without any contribution from their early season cleanup hitter.

The Astros are the hottest team in baseball, riding an 8-game win streak, 10 of their last 11, on the verge of overtaking those seat-filler Rangers for first place in the American League West. The Astros have two more games against the Brewers before heading to Oakland for a weekend series against the lowly A’s.

And I do mean lowly. Historically lowly. The A’s are 10-39 for a .204 winning percentage and if they keep this up, they’ll finish with the worst record in MLB since 1900. The current mark for futility is held by the 1916 Philadelphia A’s (same franchise, just different crime scene in Oakland), who finished 36-117 for a .236 winning percentage.

The current A’s are on pace to obliterate that mark. The A’s just need to stay focused to get that record. We don’t know if A’s fans are booing the team. There’s not enough fans at their games to register a peep.

So maybe the Abreu contract, $58.5 million over three years, turns out to be a bum deal for the Astros. But sometimes the best deals are the ones you don’t make. Like the Astros not making a serious bid to match the Mets’ two-year, $86 million offer for Justin Verlander. That’s a fortune saved.

JV, 40 and coming off another visit to the injured list, is 2-2 with a 3.60 earned run average for the Metropolitans. Meanwhile, his departure from Houston opened the door for rookie Hunter Brown to join the Astros starting rotation.

Brown, only 24, is 4-1 with a 3.20 earned run average. Brown has started nine games this season. The Astros are 6-3 in his starts.

Brown is making $725,000 this year. If my math is correct, that’s 59 times less than Verlander. That should ease the pain of the Abreu deal. A little, anyway.

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THE PALLILOG

By the numbers: How Dusty Baker's rationale doesn't match Astros results

Numbers don't lie. Composite Getty Image.

The Astros better be mindful. The Texas Rangers are better than the Astros right now because while the Rangers’ offense has been awesome, the Astros’ attack continues to rate as screamingly average. The Rangers have opened up a four and a half game lead over the Astros in the American League West. 27 games represent one-sixth of the regular season schedule. Over their last 27 games the Astros have gone 19-8. Extrapolated over 162 games that’s awesome 114 win baseball. Over those 27 games the Astros have gained zero ground in the standings on the Rangers.

While 19-8 is an impressive stretch no matter what, it is notable that within that stretch the Astros went 11-1 versus the A’s, Cubs, and White Sox, three bad teams. Winning five of six from the mediocre Angels was good, particularly beating Shohei Ohtani twice. The Astros lost two out of three to the Brewers, lost two out of three to the Twins, and need a getaway win in Toronto to gain a split with the Blue Jays.

Maybe the Rangers will be akin to the 1979 Astros, rising but not quite ready yet. July 4, 1979 the Astros led the Reds by 10 and a half games in the National League West. Reds’ pitcher and top 10 greatest pitcher ever Tom Seaver said no worries, the Astros would “fall like a lead balloon” in the second half. The Reds won the division. Here is one stat that points toward Rangers' slippage: as a team they are batting a preposterous .335 with runners in scoring position. No way that holds up all season. The Astros and Rangers have a four game series in Arlington starting June 30. That series looms as much more important to the Astros than one would have thought back in spring training.

Here's the catch

Dusty Baker this week offered his most elaborate explanation for his playing time split at catcher. It was largely balderdash. Thursday’s series finale in Toronto is Martin Maldonado's 45th start behind the plate. Yainer Diaz has 15 starts, Cesar Salazar three. Dusty talked of how there is more to the catching position than hitting. Fair point. His “points” deteriorated from there. It’s definitely attention getting that General Manager Dana Brown has publicly acknowledged talking with Baker about Diaz playing more. Good for Dana.

Let’s leave aside that Maldonado is a lousy offensive player, while Diaz brims with potential and recently has translated some of that potential into results. The Astros’ record is better with Diaz catching than with Maldonado. The pitchers’ earned run average is better when Diaz catches. The “Machete” blade has dulled. Maldonado has thrown out just six of 28 base stealers. Diaz has nailed seven of 18. Maldonado has three passed balls (and at least a couple more that were generously for him scored wild pitches), Diaz has none. All upside growth lies with Diaz.

Dusty sees it as tough to have rookie pitchers throwing to a rookie catcher. I guess if they stink that’s true. Especially dubious is Dusty’s “point” in having Maldonado catch Hunter Brown’s last six starts so that should Diaz get hurt, Maldonado wouldn’t have to start catching Brown with little familiarity. How about the inverse? Diaz catching all the other starters more so that should the approaching 37 years old Maldonado break down, Diaz is more up to speed. Oh, Brown’s earned run average over those six starts with Maldonado is 4.81. Over his first six starts, five of them pitching to Diaz, Brown’s ERA was 2.60.

Wednesday Dusty gave Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena the night off. Nothing wrong with that. The 29-year-old Bregman had played in all 61 games this season to date, the 25-year-old Pena in 60 of 61. Meanwhile, 36-year-old season long disaster Jose Abreu was penciled into the starting lineup for the 60^th time in 62 games. Abreu’s ended the night with his OPS at .534. He is the worst player in the Major Leagues getting everyday run. Thursday marks his 61st start in 63 games. Another spot where Diaz should be getting more time.

All eyes on Texas

Some more on those Rangers, who last season finished 68-94. They are now 40-21, and that with their desperate five year 185 million dollar contract dice roll on pitcher Jacob deGrom crapping out. deGrom finishes with all of six starts and now faces a second Tommy John surgery that could sideline him until 2025. One of the very few pitchers to ever pitch viably again after two Tommy John surgeries is Alvin native Nathan Eovaldi. The Rangers gave him 34 million guaranteed for two years, which so far is the best signing of the offseason. Eovaldi has been every bit as good as Framber Valdez.

Will he hold up is a very fair and very important question. Since 2015, only in 2021 has Eovaldi topped 125 innings in a season. He’s on pace for about 200 this year. Overall, Rangers’ starting pitchers have a lower ERA than Astros’ starters. The Rangers weakness is their bullpen. There is virtually no doubt they will strengthen it by the trade deadline. Their offense has had no weaknesses. Only one team since 1950 (1999 Indians) has amassed more than 1000 runs in a season. About 40 percent of the way through this season the Rangers are on pace for 1025. Going position by position, Yordan Alvarez remains the only Astro who would crack the Ranger lineup so far this year.

Reminder that there are no one game tiebreakers to decide division titles or wild card spots. Season series winners win out. Astros-Jays Thursday outcome decides the season series. It’s conceivable that could be very important come season’s end.

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Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule a first video segment goes up at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, with the complete audio available in podcast form at outlets galore. Such as:

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