BEST IN THE WEST
What the odds reveal about Astros ability to hold off Rangers & Mariners
Mar 18, 2024, 5:15 pm
Vegas likes Houston. Composite Getty Image.
Bruce Bochy doesn’t ever want the Texas Rangers to let go of those memories of their first World Series title.
“We just don’t want to lean on them,” said Bochy, whose first season with the Rangers ended with the first World Series championship for the 63-year-old franchise, and his fourth as a big league manager.
While Texas has the opportunity to be the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back world championships — the New York Yankees were the last, with three in a row from 1998-2000 — the Rangers aren’t even defending champs in their own division.
And they aren’t favored to win the AL West this season.
Houston is again the odds-on favorite in the division it has won each of the last six full MLB seasons since the Rangers finished on top in 2016. The Astros won their regular season finale last Oct. 1, matched Texas at 90-72 and won the AL West since they were 9-4 head-to-head.
The Astros have made the AL Championship Series the past seven seasons, even when not division champs in the 2020 season shortened to 60 games because of the pandemic. They made four trips to the Fall Classic and won two titles in that span.
Dusty Baker retired days after Houston lost ALCS Game 7 at home to the Rangers last fall, finishing with 2,183 wins over 26 seasons as a big league manager with five teams.
New Astros manager Joe Espada, their bench coach for six seasons, is certainly familiar with a lineup that has big hitters Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, and a loaded starting rotation.
Espada isn't the division's only new manager. Ron Washington, who took the Rangers to their previous World Series in 2010 and 2011, was hired by the Angels, who still have Mike Trout but not two-way star Shohei Ohtani, now with the other team in Los Angeles.
Seattle again revamped its roster without big spending in free agency and hopes for a quicker return to the playoffs. The Mariners missed by one game last season, a year after its first postseason appearance since 2001.
And just like last year, the Athletics go into another season not knowing if it will be their last in Oakland.
HOW THEY PROJECT1. Houston Astros. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, reacquired in a deadline trade last July, will start this season on the injured list. But the 41-year-old’s IL stint is expected to be a short one. The Astros still have lefty Framber Valdez (12-11, 2.45 ERA, 200 strikeouts and a no-hitter) and right-hander Cristian Javier. Eight-time All-Star second baseman Altuve signed a new $125 million, five-year contract that goes through 2029. But two-time All-Star third baseman Bregman, the only other position player to make all seven ALCS trips, is at the end of a $100 million deal.
2. Texas Rangers. After going from six losing seasons in a row to a World Series title, the Rangers should be playoff contenders again. They return ALCS MVP Adolis García and most of the lineup that hit 233 homers and scored an AL-high 5.4 runs per game. But World Series MVP and AL MVP runner-up shortstop Corey Seager (sports hernia), Gold Glove first baseman Nathaniel Lowe (oblique strain) and All-Star third baseman Josh Jung (calf) missed significant time in the spring. All-Star right-hander Nathan Eovaldi tops a rotation still missing injured multiple Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.
3. Seattle Mariners. The front office put together a roster that might be better than last year, but everybody has to stay healthy. Seattle should be better offensively with the additions of Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and Luke Raley to go with young superstar Julio Rodriguez. If J.P. Crawford can replicate last season at the plate and Ty France returns to his 2021-22 form, the lineup will be deeper. Couple a better offense with one of the best rotations in baseball led by Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, the Mariners should once again contend in the division.
4. Los Angeles Angels. They feel like they’re starting over yet again and still haven't been to the playoffs since 2014. Ohtani left after six seasons for a record $700 million with the perennially contending Dodgers. The Halos added almost nothing in free agency, only revamping their bullpen again and taking low-cost flyers on Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano. Trout and Anthony Rendon are back, and an open DH spot will allow them to rest their injury-prone bodies more regularly. Their rotation is last year’s group minus Ohtani. The 71-year-old Washington brings a unique blend of expertise and enthusiasm, which should benefit an exciting crop of young talent ready to break through in the majors.
5. Oakland Athletics. This could be the final season playing at the Coliseum with a lease set to expire. So the A's are still trying to figure out where they will play beyond this year with a new ballpark and move to Las Vegas scheduled for 2028. Manager Mark Kotsay has been committed to keeping his team focused on what it can do to be better on the field after two years with a combined 214 losses (112 last season). The A’s acquired Ross Stripling from the San Francisco Giants and added Alex Wood to the rotation.
OLD SKIPPERSWhen the 74-year-old Baker retired, Bochy became the oldest manager in the majors. That lasted only a few weeks until the Angels hired Washington. Bochy will turn 69 on April 16, just 13 days before Washington turns 72. Bochy, with 2,093 wins going into his 27th season, is one of six managers with four World Series titles, his first three coming in San Francisco (2010, 2012 and 2014). Washington won a franchise-record 664 games in eight seasons with Texas from 2007-14. He was on Atlanta's staff the past seven years, and part of the Braves' 2021 World Series title.
RELIEF HELPSeveral new relievers are in the AL West, including hard-throwing lefty Josh Hader with the Astros, veteran right-hander David Robertson and former All-Star closer Kirby Yates in Texas, Gregory Santos and Ryne Stanek in Seattle and Robert Stephenson with the Angels.
Hader's $95 million, five-year deal was the biggest after becoming a first-time free agent. The 29-year-old, once in the Astros' minor league system, turned down a $20,325,000 qualifying offer from San Diego.
As the Houston Astros continue to navigate a season riddled with injuries and inconsistencies, the question looms larger than ever: can they keep their heads above water? With a barrage of pitching injuries threatening to derail their season, the Astros are finding themselves in a position where every decision matters more than ever.
The recent setbacks to the pitching staff (Hayden Wesnieski, Ronel Blanco) have placed even more pressure on the club. Lance McCullers, whose performances have been inconsistent, is now squarely in the spotlight. The Astros will need him to step up and shoulder a larger portion of the load. At the same time, the bullpen, which has been a bright spot so far, must continue its elite play to keep the team afloat. In particular, Houston can't afford to make mistakes in its decision-making, whether in the lineup or on the field.
Take, for example, the decision to give Chas McCormick a second start after his costly mistakes in Game 1 against the Rays. McCormick’s two pick-offs in that game showed he's lacking focus, yet he was given another chance to start Game 2. Houston needs to be making the right calls on the field, and this was a moment where the manager’s trust in McCormick might have been better placed elsewhere, considering his lack of success in the series.
On the offensive side, the Astros’ struggles have been just as apparent. Jose Altuve, a cornerstone of the franchise, has been attempting to bunt while hitting in the 3-hole. It’s a strategy that just doesn’t make sense. With the Astros needing to produce runs, Altuve's role is to drive them in, not waste strikes with ill-timed bunt attempts.
Is Houston's roster poorly constructed or just unlucky?
Given the pitching woes and offensive troubles, some are beginning to question whether the Astros’ roster is poorly constructed, or if it’s simply been an unfortunate series of events. The bad luck with pitching injuries is undeniable, but the offense tells a different story—particularly when it comes to the lineup’s balance.
One glaring issue is the team’s heavy reliance on right-handed hitters. With players like Christian Walker struggling at the plate, it’s hard to overlook the potential misstep in roster construction. Walker’s performance this season has been abysmal, and it’s fair to wonder if the Astros would have been better off investing in a more flexible first-base platoon. Players like Jon Singleton, Victor Caratini, Zach Dezenzo, Yainer Diaz, and even Mauricio Dubon could have filled in at first base, providing much-needed depth at a fraction of the cost. At this point, they couldn’t have done worse than Walker, who has posted a paltry .199 batting average, .270 OBP, and .607 OPS on the season.
In comparison, Walker’s numbers this season are worse than Jose Abreu’s 2023 campaign with Houston (.237 batting avg, .296 OBP, .680 OPS). Walker is a player known for slow starts, but nothing quite as severe as what we’ve seen in 2025. His struggles are reminiscent of a disastrous start to the 2022 season that saw him fail to find his rhythm until much later in the year, but even then, his slugging percentage was significantly better than what we’re seeing now.
Would a return of “career Yordan Alvarez” fix Houston’s offensive woes?
Amid the offensive malaise, the return of a fully healthy Yordan Alvarez could certainly provide a much-needed spark. If Alvarez were to return to his “career” form, with a healthy pitching staff, an intact bullpen, and a potential resurgence from key hitters, the Astros could see a drastic improvement in their fortunes. However, this is all contingent on a lot of “ifs,” and there’s no guarantee that a turnaround is on the horizon.
Observations and further concerns
As if the struggles on offense and pitching weren’t enough, the Astros’ defense has also been plagued by lapses in fundamentals. One of the more puzzling trends this season has been the number of stolen bases allowed, especially at third base. If the Astros continue to give up steals at this rate, it will be difficult for the pitchers to recover, especially if they are walking batters and putting runners in scoring position with alarming frequency.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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