THE PALLILOG
How Astros will look to clinch division while eyeing potential postseason challenges
Sep 19, 2024, 2:49 pm
Could too much rest be a bad thing for Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown? Composite Getty Image.
The legendary Yogi Berra’s most famous aphorism was/is “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.” Or was that Aristotle? No, definitely Yogi. The point is, the American League West race isn’t yet over. But it’s over. Well, almost definitely. The Astros have played mediocre baseball the past month (14-14 over their last 28 games heading into this weekend’s four-game series vs. the woeful Angels), but so far as the AL West is concerned that was just fine given the second place Seattle Mariners could do no better. The Astros woke up August 19 with a five-game lead, the Astros woke up September 19 with a five-game lead. Unless this weekend they chump it up against the Angels and the Mariners whip up on the Rangers in Arlington, the Astros-Mariners set starting Monday at Minute Maid Park looms as largely anticlimactic. The Astros could clinch their seventh consecutive full-season division crown this weekend. Or it could happen by beating the Mariners directly.
The Astros are highly fortunate the AL West is by far the weakest of the three AL divisions this year. In fact, it’s the only of the six MLB divisions the Astros could have won. None of that merits any asterisk. This team has overcome plenty and is wholly capable of making another deep into October run with an eighth consecutive AL Championship Series appearance in play. The flip side of the coin is this could be the Astros’ shortest postseason stint in franchise history.
Setting aside the 60 games 2020 COVID season, this is the weakest team the Astros have had since they last missed the postseason in 2016. Such things are relative. Finishing last in the Olympic 100 meters final doesn’t mean one is slow. Over the last eight years the Astros had several spectacular teams including four 100-plus game winners. This squad is not close to that caliber, it’s merely pretty good. As a result, unless the Cleveland Guardians stumble badly over the next week, the Astros haven’t played well enough to make the regular season ending three game series against the Guardians matter. It is extremely likely the Astros are going to play host to a best-of-three Wild Card series, something neither of their prior division champion teams had to survive after Major League Baseball moved to the current postseason format in 2022.
Clearly, Framber Valdez is the Astros’ postseason game one starting pitcher. Equally clearly, Hunter Brown goes in game two. Unless tweaked, Brown and Valdez go this Monday and Tuesday against the Mariners. Of mild concern, that would mean Framber would have seven days rest ahead of the playoff opener, with Brown on eight days rest going into game two. Rest or rust? You never know, including after the fact.
If there is a decisive game three, who starts that would be a huge question. Barring injury or jarringly lousy performances in his remaining two regular season starts, Yusei Kikuchi probably would get the ball with Ronel Blanco the backup and alternative unless he was used in games one or two. There is no reason for Justin Verlander to get consideration. Verlander and Spencer Arrighetti should both miss the Wild Card round roster. There is zero cause to carry 13 pitchers for a best-of-three series, or for a best-of-five Division Series should the Astros advance to it.
It would be a fun subplot if the Astros' Wild Card opponent winds up being the Detroit Tigers. A.J. Hinch's club has roared into contention. Over their last 35 games the Tigers are 25-10.
Bring back Breggy?
With all due respect to the wonderful Jose Altuve, his sincere words this week about Alex Bregman’s future with the Astros should carry no weight with the Astros' decision makers. Altuve told The Athletic’s Chandler Rome that if he (Altuve) was in control he’d pay free agent-to-be Bregman whatever he wants and that Bregman is a superstar. Setting aside that Altuve and Bregman are the two remaining pillars who span this full glorious era and that Altuve’s agent (Scott Boras) is Bregman’s agent, Bregman is an absolute gamer and absolutely a good player, but he was last a superstar in 2019. He is not worth “whatever he wants” unless he “wants” another five year 100 million dollar extension which would equal his expiring contract. That the desperate San Francisco Giants paid third baseman Matt Chapman 151 mil for the next six years doesn’t dictate the Astros do similar or more with Bregman. Bregman turns 31 on the third day of the Astros' 2025 season. He is still a plus player, but is also having the worst full season of his career, including batting .188 with a .618 OPS over the first dozen games this month.
The Astros have payroll issues, starting with the 60 million dollars next season for which they will get absolutely nothing from Jose Abreu (19.5 mil), maybe nothing from Lance McCullers (17 mil) and Cristian Javier (12.8), and little to nothing from Rafael Montero (11.5). Unless Jim Crane decides to continuously spend at Yankee, Met, Dodger levels, profit margin and Competitive Balance Tax penalties be darned (for which there is an argument, to be expanded upon in a future column!), re-upping Bregman at big years big bucks would kiss off the notion of keeping Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez beyond next season after which they become free agents if no contract extensions get done. Both Tucker and Valdez are better than and more valuable than Bregman.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
It's time to seriously question the Astros' front office. Photos via Getty Images, ESPN IG.
The Astros have officially entered a new era, but it’s hard to spin Alex Bregman’s exit as anything but a gut punch. Bregman, a cornerstone of Houston’s championship core, is gone — and the Astros' strategy (or lack thereof) is front and center. The questions are mounting fast, and the answers don’t inspire confidence.
Let’s be clear: This isn’t about refusing to pay players. It’s about how the Astros are willing to pay them. Jim Crane’s approach has become increasingly rigid — no deals with high annual values and opt-outs, but also no long-term contracts for $160+ million. Essentially, Crane is looking for a Goldilocks zone in modern baseball that no longer exists. Good luck winning another World Series with that strategy and a depleted farm system.
If Crane’s blueprint is to focus on cheap positions (first base, closer) or short-term deals with aging veterans past their prime, this team could be in serious trouble. We’ve seen it before with Correa. He could’ve been retained on a shorter-term contract (3-years, $105 million), but Crane’s pride — and his refusal to engage with Scott Boras on deals that include opt-outs — kept the Astros out of the conversation.
Dana Brown publicly called Bregman a top priority. Clearly, that wasn’t true for Crane. Brown’s reaction to the Bregman news felt more like a man at a funeral than an optimistic GM on the opening day of spring training for pitchers and catchers. He wouldn’t even comment on the deal.
Crane’s strategy already backfiring
The Astros locked up Rafael Montero and José Abreu to questionable contracts that now feel like self-inflicted wounds. Would Crane have let Bregman walk if not for those deals? If that’s the case, Houston just sacrificed its long-term core for short-term bets that didn't pay off.
And get ready — Framber Valdez is probably next. When his contract comes up, don’t expect him to stick around.
Leadership void
Losing Bregman isn’t just about stats. It’s about leadership, swagger, and presence. Players like Jeremy Peña, Chas McCormick, and Isaac Paredes aren’t exactly striking fear into opponents. Correa, Bregman, and Kyle Tucker? Entirely different story.
A missed opportunity
Imagine choosing between Josh Hader’s deal (5-years, $95 million) or what Bregman just signed for (3-years, $120 million). I would take Bregman all day. When Hader signed last season, we were fine with it as long as it didn't preclude the club from trying to extend Bregman and/or Tucker.
But here we are one year later with Tucker, Bregman, and Ryan Pressly playing for new teams. And Pressly was better than Hader in 2024 despite dealing with a role change.
For now, the most exciting things about the 2025 Astros are the short porch in left field — which might make Paredes look good again — and the weak AL West.
So, get your season tickets now!
This is one video you don't want to miss as the crew from Stone Cold 'Stros examines all the ramifications from Alex Bregman's Astros departure, and much more!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!
https://houston.sportsmap.com/advertise
(ChatGPT assisted with this content)