THE PALLILOG
How exactly Astros, Rangers measure up to one another ahead of their heavyweight bout
Oct 12, 2023, 4:08 pm
Get your popcorn ready! Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.
Imagine rooting for a college basketball team that reaches seven consecutive Final Fours. This is what the Astros have accomplished MLB-style. Seven consecutive League Division Series won is remarkable and unprecedented. In the LDS era which began in 1995, among the other 29 franchises only the Braves have advanced five years in a row.
So now, behold the biggest Texas teams only sporting event in the history of the Lone Star State as the Astros and Rangers ready to open the American League Championship Series Sunday night at Minute Maid Park.
Well, possibly second biggest depending on personal preference. The only competition to this ALCS is the Rockets-Spurs 1995 NBA Western Conference Final. Like the Astros now, the Rockets were the defending champions. Like the Rangers now, the Spurs had zero titles in their name. The Hakeem Olajuwon vs. David Robinson subplot was spectacular, for Rockets fans anyway, as “The Dream” turned “The Admiral” into “Seaman Dave.” The Rockets ultimately won the back-to back titles the Astros currently pursue.
Maybe in some century to come a Texans-Cowboys Super Bowl becomes number one. Still, unless amazing timing has a Texans-Cowboys Super Bowl played in Houston or Arlington, it'll be an out-of-state event. Texas and Texas A&M playing in a semifinal or championship of the College Football Playoff would be a doozy too. It's been since 1998 that the Longhorns and Aggies played with both even ranked in the top 20. At least next year they end their 12 season stretch of not playing period.
Last time the Astros and Rangers saw each other the Astros administered a three game humiliation by scores of 13-6, 14-1, and 12-3 to finish off a nine wins to four victory in the season series. It put the Astros in control of the AL West, which they then blew, before the Rangers ultimately gave it back on the final day of the regular season. That was then, this is now.
The Rangers' lineup is much stronger than what the Astros faced nearly six weeks ago. Catcher Jonah Heim hadn't re-found his hitting stroke after returning from the injured list, stud rookie third baseman Josh Jung was on the IL, and 21-year-old outfield phenom Evan Carter had yet to make his big league debut. Adolis Garcia getting injured against the Astros facilitated Carter getting called up. As a top to bottom batting order, the Rangers rate a slight edge. It is vastly superior over what the Minnesota Twins had to offer. The Rangers didn't lead the AL in runs scored by fluke. But the Rangers don't have Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, though Corey Seager was better this season than both of them. And what a couple of weeks of redemption Jose Abreu has had.
The starting pitching slight edge goes to the Astros. After Justin Verlander in game one which Framber Valdez and which Cristian Javier show for the Astros? Valdez has been shaky while Javier has been resurgent. Jose Urquidy has been sensational in his last two starts. Life takes funny turns. Urquidy doesn't make the first of those starts and maybe not either of them if not for a health scare for J.P. France's wife. Happily, things are fine for the Frances. They sure are for the Astros.
Jordan Montgomery and an again healthy and sharp Nathan Eovaldi are a strong Rangers one-two. At three-four, Dane Dunning is ok but vulnerable, Andrew Heaney even more vulnerable. If Max Scherzer and/or Jon Gray return from injury (as seems probable) and can offer even a few good innings, that would be a big boost for the challengers. If both are healthy, expect Rangers' manager Bruce Bochy to tag-team two starters in games three and four.
The huge advantage in this matchup is in the bullpen and it favors the Astros. If picking sides in a bullpen draft, Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Hector Neris all go before the first Ranger would be taken (closer Jose LeClerc). Aroldis Chapman is mostly a wild mess these days. No way Jose Altuve gets a shot at another pennant-winning homer off of him. As he did with the Astros, Will Smith has faded toward irrelevance. If Rangers' starters don't average at least six innings pitched in the series, it's probably going well for the champs.
Both teams are solid defensively. One checkmark the Astros get on D is at shortstop. Jeremy Peña has been stellar in recent weeks, with scintillating plays in Seattle and Minnesota. Corey Seager isn't a butcher at short by any stretch, but can be spotty.
The Astros are not quite 60/40 favorites to make it three straight AL pennants. No team has reached back-to-back-to-back World Series since the Yankees went to four in a row 1998-2001.
If there really were Baseball Gods, I would ask them to have Astros-Rangers go seven compelling games. This is tremendous.
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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