THE PALLILOG
How exactly Astros, Rangers measure up to one another ahead of their heavyweight bout
Oct 12, 2023, 4:08 pm
Get your popcorn ready! Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.
Imagine rooting for a college basketball team that reaches seven consecutive Final Fours. This is what the Astros have accomplished MLB-style. Seven consecutive League Division Series won is remarkable and unprecedented. In the LDS era which began in 1995, among the other 29 franchises only the Braves have advanced five years in a row.
So now, behold the biggest Texas teams only sporting event in the history of the Lone Star State as the Astros and Rangers ready to open the American League Championship Series Sunday night at Minute Maid Park.
Well, possibly second biggest depending on personal preference. The only competition to this ALCS is the Rockets-Spurs 1995 NBA Western Conference Final. Like the Astros now, the Rockets were the defending champions. Like the Rangers now, the Spurs had zero titles in their name. The Hakeem Olajuwon vs. David Robinson subplot was spectacular, for Rockets fans anyway, as “The Dream” turned “The Admiral” into “Seaman Dave.” The Rockets ultimately won the back-to back titles the Astros currently pursue.
Maybe in some century to come a Texans-Cowboys Super Bowl becomes number one. Still, unless amazing timing has a Texans-Cowboys Super Bowl played in Houston or Arlington, it'll be an out-of-state event. Texas and Texas A&M playing in a semifinal or championship of the College Football Playoff would be a doozy too. It's been since 1998 that the Longhorns and Aggies played with both even ranked in the top 20. At least next year they end their 12 season stretch of not playing period.
Last time the Astros and Rangers saw each other the Astros administered a three game humiliation by scores of 13-6, 14-1, and 12-3 to finish off a nine wins to four victory in the season series. It put the Astros in control of the AL West, which they then blew, before the Rangers ultimately gave it back on the final day of the regular season. That was then, this is now.
The Rangers' lineup is much stronger than what the Astros faced nearly six weeks ago. Catcher Jonah Heim hadn't re-found his hitting stroke after returning from the injured list, stud rookie third baseman Josh Jung was on the IL, and 21-year-old outfield phenom Evan Carter had yet to make his big league debut. Adolis Garcia getting injured against the Astros facilitated Carter getting called up. As a top to bottom batting order, the Rangers rate a slight edge. It is vastly superior over what the Minnesota Twins had to offer. The Rangers didn't lead the AL in runs scored by fluke. But the Rangers don't have Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, though Corey Seager was better this season than both of them. And what a couple of weeks of redemption Jose Abreu has had.
The starting pitching slight edge goes to the Astros. After Justin Verlander in game one which Framber Valdez and which Cristian Javier show for the Astros? Valdez has been shaky while Javier has been resurgent. Jose Urquidy has been sensational in his last two starts. Life takes funny turns. Urquidy doesn't make the first of those starts and maybe not either of them if not for a health scare for J.P. France's wife. Happily, things are fine for the Frances. They sure are for the Astros.
Jordan Montgomery and an again healthy and sharp Nathan Eovaldi are a strong Rangers one-two. At three-four, Dane Dunning is ok but vulnerable, Andrew Heaney even more vulnerable. If Max Scherzer and/or Jon Gray return from injury (as seems probable) and can offer even a few good innings, that would be a big boost for the challengers. If both are healthy, expect Rangers' manager Bruce Bochy to tag-team two starters in games three and four.
The huge advantage in this matchup is in the bullpen and it favors the Astros. If picking sides in a bullpen draft, Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, and Hector Neris all go before the first Ranger would be taken (closer Jose LeClerc). Aroldis Chapman is mostly a wild mess these days. No way Jose Altuve gets a shot at another pennant-winning homer off of him. As he did with the Astros, Will Smith has faded toward irrelevance. If Rangers' starters don't average at least six innings pitched in the series, it's probably going well for the champs.
Both teams are solid defensively. One checkmark the Astros get on D is at shortstop. Jeremy Peña has been stellar in recent weeks, with scintillating plays in Seattle and Minnesota. Corey Seager isn't a butcher at short by any stretch, but can be spotty.
The Astros are not quite 60/40 favorites to make it three straight AL pennants. No team has reached back-to-back-to-back World Series since the Yankees went to four in a row 1998-2001.
If there really were Baseball Gods, I would ask them to have Astros-Rangers go seven compelling games. This is tremendous.
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The Houston Astros wrapped up yet another series win this week, this time taking two of three from the struggling Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Despite missing several key players and a bullpen that wasn’t fully available, the Astros continued their recent run of success, pushing their record to 52-35.
Manager Joe Espada appeared to be playing the long game in the rubber match on Thursday. After Houston rallied to tie the game in the seventh inning, Espada stuck with reliever Jordan Weems instead of turning to his high-leverage arms. That decision, while frustrating to some fans hoping for the sweep, underscored the team’s cautious approach to workload management as they navigate a long season.
One bright spot continues to be rookie Cam Smith, who delivered again in the clutch with a two-run triple in the seventh inning on Thursday. Smith has been Houston’s most dependable bat with runners on base and is quickly settling into the cleanup role—a rarity for a first-year player but one he’s earned with his poise and production.
Astros cleanup hitter RBIs this season:
Cam Smith: 10 RBIs in 7 games
All others: 28 RBIs in 80 games
— Matt Kawahara (@matthewkawahara) July 3, 2025
Off the field, the biggest storyline continues to be Yordan Alvarez’s injury. After reports surfaced that the slugger had experienced a setback in his return from a fractured hand, the team clarified that the issue is inflammation, not the fracture itself. Astros general manager Dana Brown said Alvarez received injections to address the irritation and is expected to rest for now. Encouragingly, the Astros say the fracture is no longer a concern, and while there’s still no definitive timeline for his return, the overall tone from the club was optimistic.
The transparency around Alvarez’s situation is part of a larger shift. After being criticized in recent seasons for vague injury updates, the Astros have begun issuing daily availability reports. It’s a move that signals the front office is trying to regain some trust with the media and fans after a stretch of frustrating ambiguity around player health.
Now, the Astros head to Los Angeles for a marquee matchup with the defending champion Dodgers. Friday’s opener will feature Lance McCullers Jr. making just his second start since returning from the injured list. McCullers gave up eight runs in his return against the Cubs and will be under the spotlight as he looks to settle back into form. Control will be the key, as walks have long been McCullers’ Achilles’ heel.
Saturday sets the stage for one of the most anticipated pitching matchups of the season: Framber Valdez versus Shohei Ohtani. With both teams fighting for positioning in their respective divisions, this weekend in LA should serve as a measuring stick—and perhaps a postseason preview.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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