NEW YORK AWAITS
Breaking down Astros' impressive 5-0 start to playoffs, and critical challenges ahead
Oct 21, 2022, 1:28 pm
NEW YORK AWAITS
Houston, by their record, is rolling so far in the 2022 playoffs. They are 5-0 so far in their games, with the three-game ALDS sweep of the Mariners and now firing out to a 2-0 ALCS lead over the Yankees. They look like the best team still playing, and the results prove it.
Yet, are they without weakness? For most aspects, the answer so far has seemed like yes, but there may be more to the story:
The Astros have won their five playoff games by a combined seven runs. Three of the five have been one-run victories, including, most recently, the ALCS Game 2 win by a score of 3-2. As was the case in the 2022 regular season, it's been a testament to Houston's elite pitching staff that they have been able to edge out the Mariners and Yankees in these close games.
The three starters who have taken the mound thus far have, besides ALDS Game 1, been as advertised. Justin Verlander's lousy six-run outing against the Mariners has been quickly forgotten and forgiven with his vintage six-inning, one-run, eleven-strikeout dominance in ALCS game 1. Framber Valdez has two strong showings, allowing just four runs (two unearned on his own errors) over 5.2 and 7.0 innings, respectively, in his two starts.
Lance McCullers Jr says he got hit on the elbow bone by a spare champagne bottle during the Seattle celebration, so that is why he got pushed back one game. He threw a bullpen today and says everything is fine. Lance will start in game four.
— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) October 21, 2022
Lance McCullers Jr., who is now in line to start ALCS Game 4 in New York (Cristian Javier will start Game 3), kicked off the eighteen-inning marathon of incredible pitching by the Astros in ALDS Game 3, going six innings while giving up just two hits and two walks along the way. While starting pitching has been great, the Astros' relievers are the story of these close games.
So far in the postseason, two runs have been allowed over 25.1 innings; that's what Houston's bullpen has provided their team. The guys from the "arm barn" continue to step in and step up when they're called on, including guys like Bryan Abreu, who has appeared in four of the five games, providing 4.1 innings of shutout baseball while giving up just one hit.
Ryan Pressly slammed the door in the 9th. 😤 #Postseason pic.twitter.com/VDUt8TU3lv
— MLB (@MLB) October 21, 2022
Despite a shaky ninth inning in ALDS Game 2, Ryan Pressly has looked dominant as the closer as well, including notching back-to-back saves in consecutive games to start the ALCS, one of which was a four-out save in Game 1. Of Pressly's thirteen outs in the playoffs, eight have been on strikeouts, showing he's not bothered by the biggest stage and the brightest lights.
While the caliber of pitching the Astros are getting may be the key point to them advancing to and possibly winning another World Series, what if they get into another slugfest like ALDS Game 1? The Astros are certainly capable, as evidenced by the five runs over two innings they put up in the eighth and ninth inning of that game, but since then, they've put up an average of three runs per game.
Baseball is a finicky beast, especially for hitters at times. Going into the postseason, no one could have predicted that after five games, things would look like this:
While it's a pleasant surprise that Maldonado and Gurriel, who had struggles in the regular season, are coming through in these games, it's downright perplexing what is going on with Jose Altuve. Similar to the 2020 playoffs, where the yips struck him that zapped the defense away from a Gold Glove winner, the five-time Silver Slugger has looked lost at the plate, or when he has made contact, it's been right at fielders.
A big caveat is that Altuve could explode for a string of games that erases all of this disappointment, he's certainly capable of that, but until he does, Houston's leadoff spot has become a liability they could find themselves not being able to afford. I'm not advocating for moving Altuve down in the lineup, nor pinch-hitting for him late in games, don't get me wrong; it's just something that should work itself out over time, but time is limited.
Regardless of the few flaws, though, the Astros have done what they've needed to do: win. When people look back at the scores and who ends up holding the Commissioner's Trophy, they won't immediately know which players did what along the way. All that matters is the W next to the team name, and that's what Houston continues to provide, even if it takes a different player stepping up in each game.
Despite a last-minute comeback attempt by Gonzaga on Saturday, the Cougars defeated the Bulldogs and advanced to the Sweet 16 for the sixth straight NCAA Tournament.
Houston will face the No.4 seed Purdue, who made it to the championship game last year.
The Boilermakers will be one of the toughest opponents the Cougars have faced thus far and will essentially have the home-court advantage with the game taking place in Indianapolis.
Despite the daunting matchup on paper, Houston is currently an -8.5 favorite to win this game. The Cougars should be able to handle Purdue so long as their offense stays hot and they continue to play defense at an elite level.
Keep the offense flowing
Houston guard LJ Cryer matched a career-high with 30 points against Gonzaga and has been the offensive focal point of this team.
This season, the Baylor transfer has averaged 15.6 points per game and has stepped up to be one of the unquestioned leaders of this team.
In addition to Cryer, the Cougars have Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp, who can carry the offensive load as they did during the Big 12 Tournament and against SIUE on Thursday.
J’Wan Roberts is another key factor for Houston’s success. The senior forward seems to have recovered from his ankle injury and has been a productive player since returning to the lineup.
Roberts leads the team in rebounds and is one of the most efficient scorers for the Cougars, averaging more than 50% from the field over his last five seasons.
Houston’s dynamic offense and elite defense makes this team one of the toughest to beat during the tournament.
Containing Purdue’s stars
The Boilermakers have two proficient scorers on their team, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith, who each average over 15 points per game.
Kaufman-Renn scored 22 points in his previous game against McNeese State and has been one of Purdue’s best players for most of this year.
Roberts and Joseph Tuggler will likely be assigned to the junior forward to slow down his offense, forcing his teammates to step up.
Smith is Purdue’s second-leading scorer, averaging 16 points per game, and has the most assists and steals for the Boilermakers this season.
Both Uzan and Cyrer, who have been elite parameter defenders, will cover the Purdue guard and limit his production.
Containing both Kaufman-Renn and Smith will be Houston’s top priority and the key to come away victorious.
Play Cougar basketball
Head coach Kelvin Sampson has now made it to at least the Sweet 16 six consecutive times and has his team well-positioned to make another deep tournament run.
Since arriving in Houston, the 69-year-old coach has turned this program from an afterthought to one of the best basketball teams in the country year after year.
Sampson’s key to his success is instilling a defensive-first mentality into his team and getting the best effort out of his players.
This season is no different, as Houston has the number-one ranked defense in the nation and is holding their opponents to 58.4 points per game on average.
If the Cougars can create consistent offense and continue playing defense at an elite level, they should win this game with ease and advance to the Elite 8 for the first time in three years.
The Houston-Purdue game will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium on Friday at 9 pm. The winner will play either Kentucky or Tennessee in the next round.