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Breaking down Astros' impressive 5-0 start to playoffs, and critical challenges ahead

Breaking down Astros' impressive 5-0 start to playoffs, and critical challenges ahead
Ryan Pressly came up big in Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS. Composite image by Jack Brame.
How a deep dive into the Astros bullpen analytics reveals an interesting story

Houston, by their record, is rolling so far in the 2022 playoffs. They are 5-0 so far in their games, with the three-game ALDS sweep of the Mariners and now firing out to a 2-0 ALCS lead over the Yankees. They look like the best team still playing, and the results prove it.

Yet, are they without weakness? For most aspects, the answer so far has seemed like yes, but there may be more to the story:

Pitching continues to be the differentiator

The Astros have won their five playoff games by a combined seven runs. Three of the five have been one-run victories, including, most recently, the ALCS Game 2 win by a score of 3-2. As was the case in the 2022 regular season, it's been a testament to Houston's elite pitching staff that they have been able to edge out the Mariners and Yankees in these close games.

The three starters who have taken the mound thus far have, besides ALDS Game 1, been as advertised. Justin Verlander's lousy six-run outing against the Mariners has been quickly forgotten and forgiven with his vintage six-inning, one-run, eleven-strikeout dominance in ALCS game 1. Framber Valdez has two strong showings, allowing just four runs (two unearned on his own errors) over 5.2 and 7.0 innings, respectively, in his two starts.

Lance McCullers Jr., who is now in line to start ALCS Game 4 in New York (Cristian Javier will start Game 3), kicked off the eighteen-inning marathon of incredible pitching by the Astros in ALDS Game 3, going six innings while giving up just two hits and two walks along the way. While starting pitching has been great, the Astros' relievers are the story of these close games.

So far in the postseason, two runs have been allowed over 25.1 innings; that's what Houston's bullpen has provided their team. The guys from the "arm barn" continue to step in and step up when they're called on, including guys like Bryan Abreu, who has appeared in four of the five games, providing 4.1 innings of shutout baseball while giving up just one hit.

Despite a shaky ninth inning in ALDS Game 2, Ryan Pressly has looked dominant as the closer as well, including notching back-to-back saves in consecutive games to start the ALCS, one of which was a four-out save in Game 1. Of Pressly's thirteen outs in the playoffs, eight have been on strikeouts, showing he's not bothered by the biggest stage and the brightest lights.

What if pitching isn't enough?

While the caliber of pitching the Astros are getting may be the key point to them advancing to and possibly winning another World Series, what if they get into another slugfest like ALDS Game 1? The Astros are certainly capable, as evidenced by the five runs over two innings they put up in the eighth and ninth inning of that game, but since then, they've put up an average of three runs per game.

Baseball is a finicky beast, especially for hitters at times. Going into the postseason, no one could have predicted that after five games, things would look like this:

  • Martin Maldonado: 3-for-11, .273 average, .748 OPS
  • Yuli Gurriel: 9-for-22, .409 average, 1.091 OPS
  • Jose Altuve: 0-for-23, .000 average, .080 OPS

While it's a pleasant surprise that Maldonado and Gurriel, who had struggles in the regular season, are coming through in these games, it's downright perplexing what is going on with Jose Altuve. Similar to the 2020 playoffs, where the yips struck him that zapped the defense away from a Gold Glove winner, the five-time Silver Slugger has looked lost at the plate, or when he has made contact, it's been right at fielders.

A big caveat is that Altuve could explode for a string of games that erases all of this disappointment, he's certainly capable of that, but until he does, Houston's leadoff spot has become a liability they could find themselves not being able to afford. I'm not advocating for moving Altuve down in the lineup, nor pinch-hitting for him late in games, don't get me wrong; it's just something that should work itself out over time, but time is limited.

Regardless of the few flaws, though, the Astros have done what they've needed to do: win. When people look back at the scores and who ends up holding the Commissioner's Trophy, they won't immediately know which players did what along the way. All that matters is the W next to the team name, and that's what Houston continues to provide, even if it takes a different player stepping up in each game.

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The Warriors beat the Rockets, 104-93. Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images.

Stephen Curry closed his eyes and rested his tired head on Jimmy Butler's right shoulder as the superstars shared another postgame moment.

This time, with Butler injured and wearing street clothes — a full-length fur coat at that.

“Well first, he had a fantastic coat on,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. “I thought he was going to be way too hot in that thing.”

Sidelined for Game 3 of Golden State's first-round playoff series against the Houston Rockets, Butler had a front-row seat to watch his teammate take over Saturday night in a 104-93 win that gave the Warriors a 2-1 lead.

Curry scored 36 points with five 3-pointers and had nine assists and seven rebounds in nearly 41 minutes. He had been determined to do more if Butler couldn't play after injuring his pelvis and suffering a deep gluteal muscle contusion in a hard fall during Game 2.

Butler and Curry can compare notes on their injured backsides, given that Curry has dealt with a bruised tailbone multiple times. For now, Curry appreciates the support, whether Butler is in uniform or not.

And the fur Butler was wearing?

“I almost didn't need a hot pack on the sideline sitting next to him. There was plenty of heat emanating from him,” Curry said before adding, “He's a savvy veteran, high-IQ guy, he's got a presence whether he's active or not where his voice matters, and we needed him to lift everybody up on the bench and give us that energy. His presence matched the fit for sure.”

Kerr wasn't ready to guess whether Butler will be able to play in Game 4 on Monday night.

“He’s literally day-to-day. We have tomorrow off. It will be helpful for him to have another day, and then it’s a night game,” Kerr said. “So he gets a few extra hours. So we’ll see. I have no idea right now if he’s going to play.”

Butler had been set to go through his pregame routine, which he does out of sight on the team's practice court and not the playing floor before games at Chase Center. He had an MRI exam Thursday in the Bay Area a day after he was hurt in Houston.

“We had to have Jimmy’s back while he was out,” said Gary Payton II, who scored 11 of his 16 points in the fourth quarter. “Hopefully we get Jimmy back for Game 4 and get back to our regularly scheduled program.”

Jonathan Kuminga, who didn't play for three straight games before rejoining the rotation in Game 2 when Butler got hurt, was in the starting lineup for his fourth career playoff start.

Butler went down hard when he was fouled by Amen Thompson late in the first quarter and then missed the rest of the Warriors’ 109-94 Game 2 loss on Wednesday night.

Butler tried to secure a rebound when Thompson undercut him and sent the Warriors star’s feet high into the air so that he came down straight onto his tailbone. Both players thudded to the floor and Butler grimaced in pain, grabbing at his backside. He stayed in briefly to shoot two free throws before going to the locker room.

Kerr appreciated Butler's insight on the bench.

“Jimmy is so smart. He reminds me so much of Andre Iguodala," Kerr said. “Incredible basketball IQ and then the ability to communicate what he’s seeing to his teammates on the bench. I thought Jimmy was important for us tonight in that regard. He was talking to guys throughout the game, and giving them advice, giving some help, and that was big.”

In the Game 1 win against the Rockets, Butler had 25 points on 10-for-19 shooting, seven rebounds, six assists and five steals in 42 minutes. The Warriors are 26-9 since Butler made his debut at Chicago on Feb. 8, including 23-8 in the regular season, a play-in tournament win over Memphis and the three games against Houston.

“We know they are still dangerous without Butler, so that doesn’t change anything as far as that," Rockets coach Ime Udoka said. “We didn’t make them pay, especially with the paint shots.”

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