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Breaking down Astros' impressive 5-0 start to playoffs, and critical challenges ahead

Breaking down Astros' impressive 5-0 start to playoffs, and critical challenges ahead
Ryan Pressly came up big in Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS. Composite image by Jack Brame.
How a deep dive into the Astros bullpen analytics reveals an interesting story

Houston, by their record, is rolling so far in the 2022 playoffs. They are 5-0 so far in their games, with the three-game ALDS sweep of the Mariners and now firing out to a 2-0 ALCS lead over the Yankees. They look like the best team still playing, and the results prove it.

Yet, are they without weakness? For most aspects, the answer so far has seemed like yes, but there may be more to the story:

Pitching continues to be the differentiator

The Astros have won their five playoff games by a combined seven runs. Three of the five have been one-run victories, including, most recently, the ALCS Game 2 win by a score of 3-2. As was the case in the 2022 regular season, it's been a testament to Houston's elite pitching staff that they have been able to edge out the Mariners and Yankees in these close games.

The three starters who have taken the mound thus far have, besides ALDS Game 1, been as advertised. Justin Verlander's lousy six-run outing against the Mariners has been quickly forgotten and forgiven with his vintage six-inning, one-run, eleven-strikeout dominance in ALCS game 1. Framber Valdez has two strong showings, allowing just four runs (two unearned on his own errors) over 5.2 and 7.0 innings, respectively, in his two starts.

Lance McCullers Jr., who is now in line to start ALCS Game 4 in New York (Cristian Javier will start Game 3), kicked off the eighteen-inning marathon of incredible pitching by the Astros in ALDS Game 3, going six innings while giving up just two hits and two walks along the way. While starting pitching has been great, the Astros' relievers are the story of these close games.

So far in the postseason, two runs have been allowed over 25.1 innings; that's what Houston's bullpen has provided their team. The guys from the "arm barn" continue to step in and step up when they're called on, including guys like Bryan Abreu, who has appeared in four of the five games, providing 4.1 innings of shutout baseball while giving up just one hit.

Despite a shaky ninth inning in ALDS Game 2, Ryan Pressly has looked dominant as the closer as well, including notching back-to-back saves in consecutive games to start the ALCS, one of which was a four-out save in Game 1. Of Pressly's thirteen outs in the playoffs, eight have been on strikeouts, showing he's not bothered by the biggest stage and the brightest lights.

What if pitching isn't enough?

While the caliber of pitching the Astros are getting may be the key point to them advancing to and possibly winning another World Series, what if they get into another slugfest like ALDS Game 1? The Astros are certainly capable, as evidenced by the five runs over two innings they put up in the eighth and ninth inning of that game, but since then, they've put up an average of three runs per game.

Baseball is a finicky beast, especially for hitters at times. Going into the postseason, no one could have predicted that after five games, things would look like this:

  • Martin Maldonado: 3-for-11, .273 average, .748 OPS
  • Yuli Gurriel: 9-for-22, .409 average, 1.091 OPS
  • Jose Altuve: 0-for-23, .000 average, .080 OPS

While it's a pleasant surprise that Maldonado and Gurriel, who had struggles in the regular season, are coming through in these games, it's downright perplexing what is going on with Jose Altuve. Similar to the 2020 playoffs, where the yips struck him that zapped the defense away from a Gold Glove winner, the five-time Silver Slugger has looked lost at the plate, or when he has made contact, it's been right at fielders.

A big caveat is that Altuve could explode for a string of games that erases all of this disappointment, he's certainly capable of that, but until he does, Houston's leadoff spot has become a liability they could find themselves not being able to afford. I'm not advocating for moving Altuve down in the lineup, nor pinch-hitting for him late in games, don't get me wrong; it's just something that should work itself out over time, but time is limited.

Regardless of the few flaws, though, the Astros have done what they've needed to do: win. When people look back at the scores and who ends up holding the Commissioner's Trophy, they won't immediately know which players did what along the way. All that matters is the W next to the team name, and that's what Houston continues to provide, even if it takes a different player stepping up in each game.

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The Astros beat the Orioles, 10-7. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.

Jeremy Peña and Christian Walker each hit a three-run homer, and the Houston Astros outslugged the Baltimore Orioles 10-7 on Friday night.

Colton Cowser went deep for Baltimore, but the Orioles couldn’t pull this game out despite twice cutting a four-run deficit to one.

Steven Okert (2-2) got the win in relief for Houston, and the Astros — who are without injured closer Josh Hader and lefty reliever Bennett Sousa — held on. Houston signed veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel and he was with the team, but the AL West-leading Astros didn’t use him. Bryan Abreu struck out four to end the game and get his second save.

Rookie catcher Samuel Basallo, who agreed to an eight-year, $67 million contract before the game, did not start for the Orioles, but entered as a pinch hitter in the seventh and tagged out a runner at the plate the following inning.

Peña’s drive to left capped a four-run third that included two Baltimore errors. Jeremiah Jackson’s two-run double made it 4-3 in the fourth, but after Orioles starter Cade Povich (2-7) was pulled with two outs in the fifth, Yennier Cano came on and immediately gave up Walker’s homer.

The Orioles trailed 7-6 after Cowser’s solo shot in the seventh, but pinch-hitter Victor Caratini’s two-run double in the eighth made it a three-run game, and Peña’s comebacker bounced off reliever Corbin Martin and into shallow right-center field for an RBI double.

Orioles infielder Vimael Machín hit a solo homer in the eighth in his first big league plate appearance since 2022.

Houston starter Lance McCullers Jr. allowed three runs in four innings after coming off the injured list (right finger blister).

Key moment

Jackson nearly made a diving catch on Caratini’s hit with two outs in the eighth, but once the ball got past him in right, two runs scored to make it 9-6.

Key stat

The Astros improved to 15-8 in games in which their opponent starts a left-handed pitcher.

Up next

Cristian Javier (1-1) starts for Houston on Saturday night against Dean Kremer (9-9) of the Orioles.

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