THE PALLILOG
Houston Astros shuffle the deck as they head to New York for epic clash with Yankees
Oct 21, 2022, 1:59 pm
Lance McCullers will start in Game 4 instead of Game 3 of the ALCS. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
bregman mcculers tucker (1)
So is it over? It is not, but with the Astros up two games to none over the Yankees in the American League Championship Series, it would take a serious reversal of fortune for the Astros to not win their fourth AL pennant in six seasons. Historically, the team that takes a two-nothing lead in a baseball best-of-seven ultimately wins the series a tick over 84 percent of the time. That’s strong, but not a lock. What is clear is that the Astros are the better team. Not by miles and miles, but clearly better. It’s just that the form chart doesn’t always hold. If it does this time, to the unlimited delight of Astros fans, the Yankees and their fans will have to deal with the fact/misery that “the third time is the charm” is just an expression.
In the 2017 ALCS the Astros took a two wins to none lead to Yankee Stadium and got spanked in three straight games, mustering just six runs total over the three losses. In 2019, they went to the Bronx with the series tied at one win apiece and took the first two games before the Yankees beat Justin Verlander to force the series back to Houston. The Yankees taking game five turned out to be a wonderful thing for Houston sports history because had the Astros closed out the Yanks in the Bronx, Jose Altuve never hits his game six pennant winning homer at Minute Maid Park.
Calling an audible
Dusty Baker had to vary his pitching script with news that Lance McCullers sustained a cut elbow via champagne bottle in the post Division Series clubhouse celebration. That's a freak injury, but one more entry to Lance's health issues resume. So Saturday’s game three pitching matchup became a doozy with Cristian Javier bumped up to throw opposite Gerrit Cole. Of some Astro concern is that Javier has thrown just an inning and a third over the last nearly three weeks, of greater concern for the Yankees is that Javier owned them for seven innings with 13 strikeouts in the Astros' combined no-hitter at Yankee Stadium in June. The Yankees meanwhile pay Cole 36 mil per season to deliver in a spot like this.
McCullers is pushed back to game four with the Astros' hope it's a go for the kill opportunity. There is also a decent possibility of a rainout Sunday. Lance's career road performance record is not strong, but he’s coming off six brilliant innings in the marathon 1-0 18 inning clincher at Seattle. Lance missed the 2019 ALCS (and entire season) because of Tommy John surgery, but does have a career postseason start in Yankee Stadium to his name. A really good one. In 2017 ALCS game four Lance fired six innings of shutout ball before Aaron Judge touched him for a leadoff homer in the seventh. A.J. Hinch reasonably went to the bullpen, but the pen blew a 4-1 lead. The relievers who gave it up? Chris Devenski, Joe Musgrove, and Ken Giles.
The Yankees go with left-hander Nestor Cortes in game four. Cortes has had a tremendous season. The Astros whipped up on left-handed starting pitching this season to the tune of a 42 wins 12 losses record.
Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!
So Sunday the Astros hope to be in the Bronx with brooms in hand and champagne on ice. The last time a team rolled into the World Series undefeated during that postseason was 2014 when the Royals did it. Kansas City first had to survive the Wild Card game, winning in 12 innings over Oakland. The Royals trailed 7-3 in the eighth inning. K.C. then swept the Angels 3-0 in the Division Series (Mike Trout’s only career playoff appearance) then skunked the Orioles four straight in the ALCS. Alas, the Royals then fell in the World Series in seven vs. the Giants. The Royals rebounded to win it all in 2015.
If the Astros don’t sweep, another decision looms for game five, with serious trickle down effects should a game six be necessary. Justin Verlander would seem the natural game five choice. He’d have four days rest. However, from July 1 on Verlander made only one start on four days rest. It happened to be the game he strained a calf muscle. If not JV, the ball would go to Luis Garcia. Would/should the decision be impacted by whether the Astros held a 3-1 series lead or things were level at two?
Should the series be extended back to Houston, there is no scheduled off day between games five and six. If Verlander went in game five, Framber Valdez is the game six starter. Then if there’s a seventh game it would be Luis Garcia, or Javier on three days rest, with everyone else available out of the pen. If game five is Garcia, Verlander would have five days rest ahead of game six with Framber in reserve for a game seven. As with game four and five plans for the Mariners, the Astros hope to render moot all long series pitching planning for the Yanks.
Regular season and the two games of this series included, in nine meetings the Yankees have scored more than three runs against the Astros just twice, more than two runs just three times. The Yankees outscored the Astros by 70 runs this season. Seems incomprehensible now. It’s not as if the Astros’ offense is going gangbusters. It’s only had one strong game in five this postseason. Jose Altuve is a stunning 0 for 23. Oh for twenty-three! And five games in the Astros are undefeated.Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
___________________________
Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!