THE PALLILOG

Houston Astros shuffle the deck as they head to New York for epic clash with Yankees

Houston Astros Alex Bregman, Lance McCullers, Kyle Tucker
Lance McCullers will start in Game 4 instead of Game 3 of the ALCS. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
bregman mcculers tucker (1)

So is it over? It is not, but with the Astros up two games to none over the Yankees in the American League Championship Series, it would take a serious reversal of fortune for the Astros to not win their fourth AL pennant in six seasons. Historically, the team that takes a two-nothing lead in a baseball best-of-seven ultimately wins the series a tick over 84 percent of the time. That’s strong, but not a lock. What is clear is that the Astros are the better team. Not by miles and miles, but clearly better. It’s just that the form chart doesn’t always hold. If it does this time, to the unlimited delight of Astros fans, the Yankees and their fans will have to deal with the fact/misery that “the third time is the charm” is just an expression.

In the 2017 ALCS the Astros took a two wins to none lead to Yankee Stadium and got spanked in three straight games, mustering just six runs total over the three losses. In 2019, they went to the Bronx with the series tied at one win apiece and took the first two games before the Yankees beat Justin Verlander to force the series back to Houston. The Yankees taking game five turned out to be a wonderful thing for Houston sports history because had the Astros closed out the Yanks in the Bronx, Jose Altuve never hits his game six pennant winning homer at Minute Maid Park.

Calling an audible

Dusty Baker had to vary his pitching script with news that Lance McCullers sustained a cut elbow via champagne bottle in the post Division Series clubhouse celebration. That's a freak injury, but one more entry to Lance's health issues resume. So Saturday’s game three pitching matchup became a doozy with Cristian Javier bumped up to throw opposite Gerrit Cole. Of some Astro concern is that Javier has thrown just an inning and a third over the last nearly three weeks, of greater concern for the Yankees is that Javier owned them for seven innings with 13 strikeouts in the Astros' combined no-hitter at Yankee Stadium in June. The Yankees meanwhile pay Cole 36 mil per season to deliver in a spot like this.

McCullers is pushed back to game four with the Astros' hope it's a go for the kill opportunity. There is also a decent possibility of a rainout Sunday. Lance's career road performance record is not strong, but he’s coming off six brilliant innings in the marathon 1-0 18 inning clincher at Seattle. Lance missed the 2019 ALCS (and entire season) because of Tommy John surgery, but does have a career postseason start in Yankee Stadium to his name. A really good one. In 2017 ALCS game four Lance fired six innings of shutout ball before Aaron Judge touched him for a leadoff homer in the seventh. A.J. Hinch reasonably went to the bullpen, but the pen blew a 4-1 lead. The relievers who gave it up? Chris Devenski, Joe Musgrove, and Ken Giles.

The Yankees go with left-hander Nestor Cortes in game four. Cortes has had a tremendous season. The Astros whipped up on left-handed starting pitching this season to the tune of a 42 wins 12 losses record.

Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!

So Sunday the Astros hope to be in the Bronx with brooms in hand and champagne on ice. The last time a team rolled into the World Series undefeated during that postseason was 2014 when the Royals did it. Kansas City first had to survive the Wild Card game, winning in 12 innings over Oakland. The Royals trailed 7-3 in the eighth inning. K.C. then swept the Angels 3-0 in the Division Series (Mike Trout’s only career playoff appearance) then skunked the Orioles four straight in the ALCS. Alas, the Royals then fell in the World Series in seven vs. the Giants. The Royals rebounded to win it all in 2015.

If the Astros don’t sweep, another decision looms for game five, with serious trickle down effects should a game six be necessary. Justin Verlander would seem the natural game five choice. He’d have four days rest. However, from July 1 on Verlander made only one start on four days rest. It happened to be the game he strained a calf muscle. If not JV, the ball would go to Luis Garcia. Would/should the decision be impacted by whether the Astros held a 3-1 series lead or things were level at two?

Should the series be extended back to Houston, there is no scheduled off day between games five and six. If Verlander went in game five, Framber Valdez is the game six starter. Then if there’s a seventh game it would be Luis Garcia, or Javier on three days rest, with everyone else available out of the pen. If game five is Garcia, Verlander would have five days rest ahead of game six with Framber in reserve for a game seven. As with game four and five plans for the Mariners, the Astros hope to render moot all long series pitching planning for the Yanks.

Regular season and the two games of this series included, in nine meetings the Yankees have scored more than three runs against the Astros just twice, more than two runs just three times. The Yankees outscored the Astros by 70 runs this season. Seems incomprehensible now. It’s not as if the Astros’ offense is going gangbusters. It’s only had one strong game in five this postseason. Jose Altuve is a stunning 0 for 23. Oh for twenty-three! And five games in the Astros are undefeated.

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The Angels beat the Astros, 4-1. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

Oswald Peraza hit a two-run single in the ninth inning to help the Los Angeles Angels snap a three-game losing skid by beating the Houston Astros 4-1 on Saturday night.

Peraza entered the game as a defensive replacement in the seventh inning and hit a bases-loaded fly ball to deep right field that eluded the outstretched glove of Cam Smith. It was the fourth straight hit off Astros closer Bryan Abreu (3-4), who had not allowed a run in his previous 12 appearances.

The Angels third run of the ninth inning scored when Mike Trout walked with the bases loaded.

Kyle Hendricks allowed one run while scattering seven hits over six innings. He held the Astros to 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position, the one hit coming on Jesús Sánchez’s third-inning infield single that scored Jeremy Peña.

Reid Detmers worked around a leadoff walk to keep the Astros scoreless in the seventh, and José Fermin (3-2) retired the side in order in the eighth before Kenley Jansen worked a scoreless ninth to earn his 24th save.

Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti struck out a season-high eight batters over 6 1/3 innings. The only hit he allowed was Zach Neto’s third-inning solo home run.

Yordan Alvarez had two hits for the Astros, who remained three games ahead of Seattle for first place in the AL West.

Key moment

Peraza’s two-run single to deep right field that broke a 1-1 tie in the ninth.

Key Stat

Opponents were 5 for 44 against Abreu in August before he allowed four straight hits in the ninth.

Up next

Astros RHP Hunter Brown (10-6, 2.37 ERA) faces RHP José Soriano (9-9, 3.85) when the series continues Sunday.

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