THE PALLILOG
Houston Astros shuffle the deck as they head to New York for epic clash with Yankees
Oct 21, 2022, 1:59 pm
Lance McCullers will start in Game 4 instead of Game 3 of the ALCS. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
bregman mcculers tucker (1)
So is it over? It is not, but with the Astros up two games to none over the Yankees in the American League Championship Series, it would take a serious reversal of fortune for the Astros to not win their fourth AL pennant in six seasons. Historically, the team that takes a two-nothing lead in a baseball best-of-seven ultimately wins the series a tick over 84 percent of the time. That’s strong, but not a lock. What is clear is that the Astros are the better team. Not by miles and miles, but clearly better. It’s just that the form chart doesn’t always hold. If it does this time, to the unlimited delight of Astros fans, the Yankees and their fans will have to deal with the fact/misery that “the third time is the charm” is just an expression.
In the 2017 ALCS the Astros took a two wins to none lead to Yankee Stadium and got spanked in three straight games, mustering just six runs total over the three losses. In 2019, they went to the Bronx with the series tied at one win apiece and took the first two games before the Yankees beat Justin Verlander to force the series back to Houston. The Yankees taking game five turned out to be a wonderful thing for Houston sports history because had the Astros closed out the Yanks in the Bronx, Jose Altuve never hits his game six pennant winning homer at Minute Maid Park.
Calling an audible
Dusty Baker had to vary his pitching script with news that Lance McCullers sustained a cut elbow via champagne bottle in the post Division Series clubhouse celebration. That's a freak injury, but one more entry to Lance's health issues resume. So Saturday’s game three pitching matchup became a doozy with Cristian Javier bumped up to throw opposite Gerrit Cole. Of some Astro concern is that Javier has thrown just an inning and a third over the last nearly three weeks, of greater concern for the Yankees is that Javier owned them for seven innings with 13 strikeouts in the Astros' combined no-hitter at Yankee Stadium in June. The Yankees meanwhile pay Cole 36 mil per season to deliver in a spot like this.
McCullers is pushed back to game four with the Astros' hope it's a go for the kill opportunity. There is also a decent possibility of a rainout Sunday. Lance's career road performance record is not strong, but he’s coming off six brilliant innings in the marathon 1-0 18 inning clincher at Seattle. Lance missed the 2019 ALCS (and entire season) because of Tommy John surgery, but does have a career postseason start in Yankee Stadium to his name. A really good one. In 2017 ALCS game four Lance fired six innings of shutout ball before Aaron Judge touched him for a leadoff homer in the seventh. A.J. Hinch reasonably went to the bullpen, but the pen blew a 4-1 lead. The relievers who gave it up? Chris Devenski, Joe Musgrove, and Ken Giles.
The Yankees go with left-hander Nestor Cortes in game four. Cortes has had a tremendous season. The Astros whipped up on left-handed starting pitching this season to the tune of a 42 wins 12 losses record.
Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!
So Sunday the Astros hope to be in the Bronx with brooms in hand and champagne on ice. The last time a team rolled into the World Series undefeated during that postseason was 2014 when the Royals did it. Kansas City first had to survive the Wild Card game, winning in 12 innings over Oakland. The Royals trailed 7-3 in the eighth inning. K.C. then swept the Angels 3-0 in the Division Series (Mike Trout’s only career playoff appearance) then skunked the Orioles four straight in the ALCS. Alas, the Royals then fell in the World Series in seven vs. the Giants. The Royals rebounded to win it all in 2015.
If the Astros don’t sweep, another decision looms for game five, with serious trickle down effects should a game six be necessary. Justin Verlander would seem the natural game five choice. He’d have four days rest. However, from July 1 on Verlander made only one start on four days rest. It happened to be the game he strained a calf muscle. If not JV, the ball would go to Luis Garcia. Would/should the decision be impacted by whether the Astros held a 3-1 series lead or things were level at two?
Should the series be extended back to Houston, there is no scheduled off day between games five and six. If Verlander went in game five, Framber Valdez is the game six starter. Then if there’s a seventh game it would be Luis Garcia, or Javier on three days rest, with everyone else available out of the pen. If game five is Garcia, Verlander would have five days rest ahead of game six with Framber in reserve for a game seven. As with game four and five plans for the Mariners, the Astros hope to render moot all long series pitching planning for the Yanks.
Regular season and the two games of this series included, in nine meetings the Yankees have scored more than three runs against the Astros just twice, more than two runs just three times. The Yankees outscored the Astros by 70 runs this season. Seems incomprehensible now. It’s not as if the Astros’ offense is going gangbusters. It’s only had one strong game in five this postseason. Jose Altuve is a stunning 0 for 23. Oh for twenty-three! And five games in the Astros are undefeated.Most Popular
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There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.
Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.
The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.
But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.
The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.
Astros pitcher hires a new agent
Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.
With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.
However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.
Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).
Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.
I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.
There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?
Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.
If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.
One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.
Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.
It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.
The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.
Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?
After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.
And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.
So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.
Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.
Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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