ASTROS PLAYOFFS
Two important keys that can't be ignored heading into Game 3 of Astros-Mariners
Oct 14, 2022, 1:27 pm
Jose Altuve will look to put his stamp on the series in Game 3. Photo by Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images.
1st world probs: 2 best teams in MLB share same impossible dilemma
While things certainly could have gone better at certain points in Games 1 and 2, the ending result of both games has been perfect for the Astros, who travel to Seattle with a 2-0 series lead over the Mariners. Justin Verlander struggling in his start and the offense having to rely on the super-human hitting ability of Yordan Alvarez are two things you hope normalize in the rest of Houston's postseason run.
ALDS Game 3 will be in Seattle on Saturday afternoon, with Lance McCullers Jr. trying to give his team a good start to help them move towards a three-game sweep and get some time off before the ALCS. Outside of his performance, there are two other storylines from Games 1 and 2 that need to be looked at for Game 3:
Houston's bullpen needs to keep it up
In the first two games of this series, only one Seattle run has come against a Houston reliever; Eugenio Suárez's seventh-inning solo home run off Cristian Javier in Game 1. That's one lone run over 8.1 innings of work by Houston's bullpen.
If the Astros are to go far this postseason, they'll need more of the same because with the potential teams they are lined up to face in the ALCS and World Series, even the stout rotation of Houston won't be able to go deep into every game along the way. Speaking of that rotation, that's one reason the bullpen got even better when the regular season ended.
Hunter Brown, who transitioned to the bullpen before the season's end, has continued to impress on the mound in relief, including his scoreless eighth in Game 1, which helped keep the game in reach before Yordan's massive homer won it. Javier, as mentioned, has already come in out of the bullpen as well, leaving the Astros with Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia as two starter-caliber players that could either get plugged into the starter's role in a potential Game 4 or be ready to piggy back Justin Verlander if the Astros choose to start him on short rest.
No matter how things develop, it appears that Houston's pitching strengths continue to put them in an advantageous position in this ALDS series against the Mariners and beyond.
Jose Altuve needs to spark the offense
While Yordan Alvarez's seven RBI through the first two games are incredible, and Houston has also had clutch hits by Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Yuli Gurriel, it's Houston's leadoff man that has been surprisingly quiet so far. Altuve is 0-for-8 with a walk so far in the ALDS, a stat line that certainly won't continue, but how much he improves may be the key.
I'll be shocked if Jose Altuve doesn't take a hack at the first pitch of ALDS Game 3 if it's anywhere near the zone, as has been his trademark approach for much of his time as a leadoff hitter. If he can connect, it may just be the momentum-grabber that helps lead the Astros to a big offensive day that could win them the series.
Seattle will be fired up for their first home playoff game in over twenty years, so there is no question the noise Altuve will have to deal with will be noticeable. If he can start the game with a hit or, even more preferably, a solo homer, it could quiet the crowd and take away some of Seattle's home-field advantage.
Pair that with solid pitching by McCullers Jr. and the Astros' bullpen to stifle the Mariners' offense, and it could be a recipe that sends Houston to the ALCS again.
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The NFL Draft, NBA playoffs, and NHL playoffs all dwarf baseball in the sports pecking order this week, but that doesn’t detract from the Astros playing their best stretch of baseball in the still young season. Following up taking two of three from the previously sizzling hot Padres by sweeping the Blue Jays three straight has the Astros’ record at a just fine 13-11 as they open a three-game weekend series in Kansas City. 13-11 may not sound special, because it isn’t, but having come home from St. Louis last week with the record at 8-10 makes 13-11 a quality leap. Plus, a 13-11 pace over 162 games extrapolates to 87 wins, which last season were enough to win the American League West and for an AL Wild Card spot.
Batter up!
While no one will be confusing the potency of this Astros’ lineup with those of the 2017 or 2019 juggernauts, some welcome perking up may have kicked in, despite Yordan Alvarez still not getting rolling. After Joe Espada gave Christian Walker a “mental rest” game off Monday, Walker produced a three-hit game Tuesday and a two-hit follow-up Wednesday, including a home run. Walker’s .202 batting average and .640 OPS are still lousy, but a much lesser grade of lousy than the statistical abyss he was in starting the Toronto series. Yainer Diaz has been much worse than Walker to this point. Diaz managed at least one hit in all three games of the Jays series. Baby steps. He is still sitting on an unacceptable three walks in 78 plate appearances.
Speaking of hits and walks, Jeremy Pena carries a 14-game hitting streak into the weekend. One-quarter of the way to Joe DiMaggio’s big league record! Willy Taveras set the Astros’ record with a 30-gamer back in 2006. Pena hasn’t been crushing it during the streak, during which he has just two multi-hit games. He’s had stretches where he has hit better and slugged harder (2022 postseason anyone?), but while too small a stretch to declare a leap has been made, it is noteworthy that over the 14 games Pena has drawn six walks. That gives him eight free passes in 24 games this season. More math fun! That’s one walk drawn per three games, which over 162 games would make for 54. Last season in 157 games played Pena drew a paltry 25 walks. Add in that his defense has been superb so far this season with a number of fabulous plays made and just one error committed, and Pena could be making modest offensive improvement that makes him a meaningfully better player.
Furthermore speaking of hits and walks, it’s been a struggle on both fronts the last couple of weeks for Jose Altuve. A two-week funk does not represent a crisis, but there are troubling trends that bear watching as Altuve sets to turn 35 years old May 6. Over his last 14 games, Altuve’s OPS is a sub-Maldonadian .547. In this stretch he has two doubles as his lone extra base hits and drawn just two walks. Altuve has struck out 22 times in 24 games. Setting aside the short 2020 COVID season when Altuve never got it going, last year he had the worst strikeout percentage of his career, while his walk rate was his worst since 2015. So far this season, Altuve’s strikeout rate is more than 20 percent worse than last year’s, with his walk rate down 30 percent from 2024. He is hitting line drives at a much lower rate than ever before, and struggling to get the ball in the air. The season still isn’t 20 percent old, but since Altuve last season finished with his lowest OPS (.790, again, exempting 2020) since 2013, and his current .728 OPS is 62 points lower than that, the antennae of at least mild concern are up. This is the first season of Altuve’s five-year 125 million dollar contract extension. Remember, the Astros would not offer Kyle Tucker a contract that took him to age 35.
Bringing the heat!
Hunter Brown makes his next start Sunday in Kansas City. Good luck Royals! Until getting a doubleheader against the pathetic Rockies Thursday, K.C. was averaging under three runs per game. Brown's earned run average through five starts is 1.16! It's waaaaay early to focus on this, but the best season ERA for an Astro pitcher who qualified for the statistical lead (one inning pitched per team game played) belongs to Nolan Ryan who posted a 1.69 in the strike-shortened 1981 season. Over a full-schedule season, Justin Verlander's 1.75 in 2022 is the standard. Brown has fired 24 consecutive shutout innings. Ryan Pressly holds the Astros’ record with 38 consecutive scoreless innings pitched. Orel Hershiser set the Major League record by finishing the 1988 regular season with a ridiculous 59 straight shutout innings. Yes he won the National League Cy Young Award. The Cy Young is strictly a regular season award. Hershiser in 1988 also won the League Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award, and World Series MVP.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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