ASTROS PLAYOFFS
Two important keys that can't be ignored heading into Game 3 of Astros-Mariners
Oct 14, 2022, 1:27 pm
Jose Altuve will look to put his stamp on the series in Game 3. Photo by Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images.
1st world probs: 2 best teams in MLB share same impossible dilemma
While things certainly could have gone better at certain points in Games 1 and 2, the ending result of both games has been perfect for the Astros, who travel to Seattle with a 2-0 series lead over the Mariners. Justin Verlander struggling in his start and the offense having to rely on the super-human hitting ability of Yordan Alvarez are two things you hope normalize in the rest of Houston's postseason run.
ALDS Game 3 will be in Seattle on Saturday afternoon, with Lance McCullers Jr. trying to give his team a good start to help them move towards a three-game sweep and get some time off before the ALCS. Outside of his performance, there are two other storylines from Games 1 and 2 that need to be looked at for Game 3:
Houston's bullpen needs to keep it up
In the first two games of this series, only one Seattle run has come against a Houston reliever; Eugenio Suárez's seventh-inning solo home run off Cristian Javier in Game 1. That's one lone run over 8.1 innings of work by Houston's bullpen.
If the Astros are to go far this postseason, they'll need more of the same because with the potential teams they are lined up to face in the ALCS and World Series, even the stout rotation of Houston won't be able to go deep into every game along the way. Speaking of that rotation, that's one reason the bullpen got even better when the regular season ended.
Hunter Brown, who transitioned to the bullpen before the season's end, has continued to impress on the mound in relief, including his scoreless eighth in Game 1, which helped keep the game in reach before Yordan's massive homer won it. Javier, as mentioned, has already come in out of the bullpen as well, leaving the Astros with Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia as two starter-caliber players that could either get plugged into the starter's role in a potential Game 4 or be ready to piggy back Justin Verlander if the Astros choose to start him on short rest.
No matter how things develop, it appears that Houston's pitching strengths continue to put them in an advantageous position in this ALDS series against the Mariners and beyond.
Jose Altuve needs to spark the offense
While Yordan Alvarez's seven RBI through the first two games are incredible, and Houston has also had clutch hits by Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Yuli Gurriel, it's Houston's leadoff man that has been surprisingly quiet so far. Altuve is 0-for-8 with a walk so far in the ALDS, a stat line that certainly won't continue, but how much he improves may be the key.
I'll be shocked if Jose Altuve doesn't take a hack at the first pitch of ALDS Game 3 if it's anywhere near the zone, as has been his trademark approach for much of his time as a leadoff hitter. If he can connect, it may just be the momentum-grabber that helps lead the Astros to a big offensive day that could win them the series.
Seattle will be fired up for their first home playoff game in over twenty years, so there is no question the noise Altuve will have to deal with will be noticeable. If he can start the game with a hit or, even more preferably, a solo homer, it could quiet the crowd and take away some of Seattle's home-field advantage.
Pair that with solid pitching by McCullers Jr. and the Astros' bullpen to stifle the Mariners' offense, and it could be a recipe that sends Houston to the ALCS again.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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