BRACE YOURSELF
MLB stunner: How Alex Bregman's possible departure could alter Houston Astros destiny
Nov 28, 2023, 1:44 pm
BRACE YOURSELF
Larry King used to describe what’s wrong with modern sports this way:
Back in the 1960s, two housewives are waiting in line at the supermarket checkout line. One picks up a copy of Photoplay Magazine and says, “Isn’t Clint Eastwood dreamy?” The other says, “He’s so rugged, I love his movies. Let’s go tonight.”
Sixty years later, two women, one’s an attorney the other is vice-president of an investment firm, are in line at the supermarket checkout. One picks up a copy of Forbes and says, “You know, Brad Pitt owns two points of his new movie’s foreign distribution and has right of first refusal on all sequels and spinoffs. He stands to make $50 million for his production company.”
It’s a similar situation with sports then and now. Sometimes we don’t need to know how the sausage is made.
These days you couldn’t blame Astros fans for having a grudging resignation that star third baseman Alex Bregman will be leaving Houston at the end, more likely during, the 2024 season.
It’s not because the fans don’t like him. Not because he isn’t contributing. Not because he’s injured all the time. Not because the Astros have a better third baseman coming up from Triple A. Not for any good reason.
It’s because Bregman will be entering the last year of his contract and teams will be offering him big money to play for them. At least according to the media, Astros don’t think they can afford to keep him. Bregman’s agent is Scott Boras who loves to take his clients to free agency and watch other teams fight like jackals over his players.
This is the time of year when sportswriters play fantasy trades and one that’s gained traction involves the Astros saying goodbye to Bregman as part of a complicated four-team deal. Essentially, Bregman and Jake Meyers would go to the Yankees, while pitching prospect Spencer Arrighetti goes to the Chicago White Sox.
In return, the Astros would acquire rookie infielder Jordan Westburg from the Orioles.
While the attorney and investment banker might understand the financial bottom line of the deal, the two housewives from the ‘60s would ask Astros owner Jim Crane, “Have you lost your flippin’ mind?”
“Are you really saying goodbye to Alex Bregman, a popular player who is one of the few remnants of our first-ever World Series title in 2017, who hit 25 homers and drove in 98 runs last year, who played 161 games, who was a Gold Glove finalist, who is beloved in Houston … for a rookie who played less than half a season in 2023, and hit .260 with three home runs? Seriously, here’s a Dixie cup. We need to have you looked at.”
I know, it’s the Astros thing. Goodbye Carlos Correa. Goodbye Gerrit Cole. Goodbye George Springer. Goodbye Justin Verlander.
Goodbye Alex Bregman?
With a new manager and new(ish) general manager, this would be a good time to open the vault and go after big name free agents, not send them away. This isn’t how a major market team that draws 3 million fans at major market ticket prices is supposed to act. This is how the perennial loser Pittsburgh Pirates conduct business.
Or one day it will be goodbye fans.
I spoke with a baseball insider who thinks the Astros would be making the right move dispatching Bregman, Meyers and Arrighetti for a rookie infielder with a brief lifetime batting average of .260 and little power.
“Put a pencil to it (if the Astros sign Bregman to an extension) you’re looking at a $300 million payroll. I like the proposed trade because it lowers payroll, brings in a talented kid and nudges the transition. All the Astros core guys are either going to get raises or be out the door over the next two years, most notably Kyle Tucker. If I ran things, I’d fast-forward the roster churn. I’d make Altuve and Yordan Alvarez untouchable and throw everybody else into the discussion. The farm system is so weak that a collapse is inevitable.”
But why? Bregman is 29 years old. He’s in the middle of his prime years with tread still on his tires. He’s part of what makes the Astros a mini-dynasty with seven consecutive ALCS appearances, four World Series appearances and two championships since 2017.
In New York, sports columnists already have Bregman in pinstripes. They’re saying it’s practically a done deal. They’re saying, sure, there may be some early fan resentment because they consider Bregman part of the 2017 Astros sign stealers they feel robbed the Yankees of the American League pennant and stole Aaron Judge’s MVP. When the Astros visit Yankee Stadium, you hear fans cull Bregman and Altuve from the herd for lusty boos and jeers.
New York media is confident that fans will snap out of it once their new third baseman hits a few Breggy Bombs and makes diving plays at third base, a position where the Yankees sorely need improving.
Yankee fans have proven they’re a forgiving mob. Until the Astros got good, the archest enemy was Boston. Yankee fans forgave former Red Sox stars Jacoby Ellsbury, Johnny Damon, Wade Boggs and Roger Clemens for their past sins. If you turn back the pages of history, there was this fellow named Babe Ruth who made fans overlook that used to play in Boston.
So far we haven’t heard how Bregman might feel about playing for the enemy. One supposes any nerves would be soothed by what could approach a $300 million contract.
It’s not like the old days when enemies stuck to their guns. The two housewives at the supermarket checkout would remind you that in 1956, when the Dodgers tried to trade Jackie Robinson to the rival Giants, Robinson retired from baseball rather than wear that despised uniform.
Heading into Wednesday's Grapefruit League game, reports indicate that Astros first baseman Christian Walker has been scratched with left oblique soreness.
Worth noting that Christian Walker had a left oblique injury last season that kept him on the IL for more than a month https://t.co/13IZ7P6Dtd
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) March 5, 2025
As Chandler Rome mentions in the post above, Walker missed the entire month of August in 2024 with a left oblique injury. He only hit .231 for the remainder of the season after recovering from the injury.
Walker was off to a hot start this spring, hitting .500 with 3 doubles in 8 at-bats. Hopefully this is just a precautionary move, and he'll be back in the lineup shortly.
However, these are the types of risks owner Jim Crane likes to take. Only willing to commit big money on short-term deals to aging players. Walker will be 34 years old at the end of March. He signed a 3-year, $60 million contract with Houston this offseason.
The reality is, sometimes these moves work, and sometimes they don't. Older players are more likely to have their production falloff and deal with injuries. Michael Brantley is a prime example of getting good value from an older player on a short contract. His 2-year deal for $32 million with the Astros for the 2019 and 2020 seasons turned out to be a solid move. He played the 2019 and 2020 seasons at 32 and 33 years old, respectively. His contracts with the 'Stros following that original deal did not work out nearly as well, with injuries keeping him out of the lineup regularly.
Justin Verlander is another example of Crane's willingness to roll the dice on aging players. Verlander joined the Astros during his age 34 season. Houston saw a wide range of results with Verlander. He won two Cy Young awards and two championships with the club, but also missed significant time due to injury, and struggled to get batter outs when healthy in 2024. Verlander was left off the postseason roster in his final year in Houston.
And we can't help but mention the Jose Abreu contract as a cautionary tale. Especially since the terms of his deal and his age are similar to Walker's.
But clearly, Crane was more comfortable making the cheaper 3-year deal with Walker over extending Kyle Tucker or paying Alex Bregman market value. Had the Astros kept one of those two players, they likely would have felt better about keeping Jon Singleton at first base and passing on Walker.
Only time will tell if the Astros made the right decisions. The trade haul for Kyle Tucker looks terrific so far, but we all know it's not wise to put too much stock in spring training games.
It's also worth noting, both Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez missed time in 2023 dealing with oblique injuries.