REAL TALK
If the latest Astros-Bregman reports have you feeling a certain way, consider this
Feb 13, 2024, 3:53 pm
Everyone is saying the right things, but… Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images.
Optimism is a good thing, but you might want to mix in a shot of realism, with a skepticism chaser.
Recently, Alex Bregman’s agent Scott Boras said that the Astros third baseman “has made it clear that he’s open to listening to whatever the Astros have to say.”
That was quickly followed by Astros general manager Dana Brown saying, “We’d love to have him (Bregman) here and as far as the timeline, we just don’t have it. But we will at some point make an offer.”
Astros fans and some in sports media added one plus one together and came up with $225 million over seven years or some other high-priced, multiyear deal for Bregman to stay in Houston.
That’s why we’ve seen headlines like these recently:
“Alex Bregman will definitely get Astros contract offer.”
“Astros GM says they’re going to offer Bregman an extension.”
“Astros plan to extend Bregman despite outside noise.”
Technically all that’s true. At some point, and they’d better hurry because spring training starts this week, the Astros probably will write a number on a piece of paper and slide it across the table to Bregman.
But the devil’s in the details. We don’t know what the Astros will offer Bregman, but here’s a detail we do know. The Astros have never offered a contract longer than six years or more than $150 million. Bregman is expected to ask for more years and way, way more money than that.
What about Boras saying Bregman is open to talk extension with the Astros? What would you expect Bregman to say – I’ll see you guys next year but I’ll be wearing a different uniform? If Bregman said he was closing the door on the Astros, he would lose the fan support he obsessively covets in Houston.
As for the Astros promising fans that they will make Bregman an offer to stay? I’ll take them at their word, but what’s in the offer? Will the Astros break their covenant on not offering huge bucks and super multiyear contracts? It’s very unlikely in the case of Bregman who, while still a nice player, has seen his numbers decline in recent years.
What do you expect the Astros to say – sorry fans, we know what he wants and we just can’t afford that?
Occasionally I’ll get a call from one of those companies offering to buy my house, sight unseen, no closing costs, no inspections, no commission, no nothing. You see these guys on TV, too. They’ll have an offer to me by end of business tomorrow. Are they offering the same price the house across the street just sold for? Not even close.
Bregman wants to be paid what the third baseman across the street is paid.
The Astros have made lowball (or no) offers to keep star players in the past. George Springer, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, Charlie Morton and others all took bigger money and went elsewhere. The only icon who re-upped to stay with the Astros is Jose Altuve and he’s four years older than Bregman and a future Hall of Famer.
You never know how these things work out, or what kind of magic pen the accountants can wave, but until there’s a press conference with Bregman wearing an Astros jersey over his business suit …
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Dec 13, 2024, 8:31 pm
Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Key injuries
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Series notes
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Stats and stuff
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Fantasy tip
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.