REAL TALK
If the latest Astros-Bregman reports have you feeling a certain way, consider this
Feb 13, 2024, 3:53 pm
Everyone is saying the right things, but… Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images.
Optimism is a good thing, but you might want to mix in a shot of realism, with a skepticism chaser.
Recently, Alex Bregman’s agent Scott Boras said that the Astros third baseman “has made it clear that he’s open to listening to whatever the Astros have to say.”
That was quickly followed by Astros general manager Dana Brown saying, “We’d love to have him (Bregman) here and as far as the timeline, we just don’t have it. But we will at some point make an offer.”
Astros fans and some in sports media added one plus one together and came up with $225 million over seven years or some other high-priced, multiyear deal for Bregman to stay in Houston.
That’s why we’ve seen headlines like these recently:
“Alex Bregman will definitely get Astros contract offer.”
“Astros GM says they’re going to offer Bregman an extension.”
“Astros plan to extend Bregman despite outside noise.”
Technically all that’s true. At some point, and they’d better hurry because spring training starts this week, the Astros probably will write a number on a piece of paper and slide it across the table to Bregman.
But the devil’s in the details. We don’t know what the Astros will offer Bregman, but here’s a detail we do know. The Astros have never offered a contract longer than six years or more than $150 million. Bregman is expected to ask for more years and way, way more money than that.
What about Boras saying Bregman is open to talk extension with the Astros? What would you expect Bregman to say – I’ll see you guys next year but I’ll be wearing a different uniform? If Bregman said he was closing the door on the Astros, he would lose the fan support he obsessively covets in Houston.
As for the Astros promising fans that they will make Bregman an offer to stay? I’ll take them at their word, but what’s in the offer? Will the Astros break their covenant on not offering huge bucks and super multiyear contracts? It’s very unlikely in the case of Bregman who, while still a nice player, has seen his numbers decline in recent years.
What do you expect the Astros to say – sorry fans, we know what he wants and we just can’t afford that?
Occasionally I’ll get a call from one of those companies offering to buy my house, sight unseen, no closing costs, no inspections, no commission, no nothing. You see these guys on TV, too. They’ll have an offer to me by end of business tomorrow. Are they offering the same price the house across the street just sold for? Not even close.
Bregman wants to be paid what the third baseman across the street is paid.
The Astros have made lowball (or no) offers to keep star players in the past. George Springer, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Correa, Charlie Morton and others all took bigger money and went elsewhere. The only icon who re-upped to stay with the Astros is Jose Altuve and he’s four years older than Bregman and a future Hall of Famer.
You never know how these things work out, or what kind of magic pen the accountants can wave, but until there’s a press conference with Bregman wearing an Astros jersey over his business suit …
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The Houston Astros walked out of Phoenix with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, but the biggest win of the series might not have been in the standings, it could’ve been the emergence of their latest young spark plug.
Once again, the pitching carried the load. Brandon Walter continued his breakout season with another strong showing, and right now, he looks like Houston’s third starter if the playoffs began today. Behind him, Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon have quietly helped stabilize a rotation ravaged by injuries. All three own ERAs under 4.5, a luxury the Astros couldn’t have anticipated heading into the year. Another thing they couldn't have anticipated was Lance McCullers' ERA this season being almost seven.
Walter’s rise comes at the same time the McCullers situation grows murkier. After starting the season late, he’s on the injured list again, this time with a blister on his pitching hand. Though the issue isn’t related to his arm, the “vibes” simply haven't been there. He’s struggled in four of his last five starts, and one wonders whether a "phantom" IL stint might be in his future, especially with Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti progressing in rehab assignments. The roster squeeze is coming, and McCullers might not make the cut.
Crushing dingers!
Offensively, the conversation begins and ends with Brice Matthews. The first-round pick has quickly shifted from injury fill-in to potential staple, nearly winning the series by himself with three home runs across the first two games. His athleticism has popped in the field, and while contact concerns remain, the power and energy are real. Matthews is the only prospect of his pedigree ready to contribute, so the club made a wise decision to take a shot on upside, and Matthews delivered. That's why we were so emphatic about the Astros elevating Matthews. Get him in the lineup as a DH if you have to, whatever it takes, this offense needs pop. Then lo and behold, not only does he give the offense a lift, his defense also helped seal a win against Arizona.
Veteran slugger Christian Walker might be heating up too, posting a .348 average with three home runs and an .895 OPS in July. That’s a promising development, especially in a month when the Astros have flipped their typical formula. The pitching has been average — 18th in ERA, 18th in WHIP, 21st in opponent batting average — but the offense has been elite: top-five in slugging, OPS, and runs scored.
Injury bug
Still, questions persist. Chief among them is the health of Yordan Alvarez. His recent comments about his hand injury — specifically, his uncertainty and acknowledgement that rest hasn’t helped — were troubling. If surgery isn’t an option and time off isn’t working, what is the long-term solution? At this point, fans are right to worry about whether Alvarez will ever fully return to the dominant form he once showed.
Trade deadline
With the trade deadline one week away, general manager Dana Brown has to weigh all of this. The pitching could soon be bolstered by returns from the IL. But the offense, especially with no clear return dates for Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers, and Isaac Paredes, might need immediate help. Despite the sweep, Houston scored just three and four runs in the final two games of the Diamondbacks series. If they’re serious about contending for a championship, another bat may be required. They'll see much better pitching in the postseason.
If the Astros do decide to add an arm, a power right-handed reliever could make sense. With Bryan Abreu the only truly dominant righty in the bullpen, a little late-inning muscle wouldn’t hurt.
Bottom line: the Astros are winning, and they're doing it in multiple ways. But with health concerns piling up and playoff positioning tightening, there’s still plenty of work ahead. Fortunately for Houston, they may have just found another foundational piece in the most unexpected place, a rookie who’s already changing the conversation.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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