THE PALLILOG
How latest Alex Bregman revelation could send shockwaves through Astros lineup
Aug 21, 2024, 6:46 pm
THE PALLILOG
If the Seattle Mariners have decided to stop winning any series, the Astros can cruise to another American League West title. Maybe it will be that simple. The schedule suggests otherwise, but if the form chart always held, there would be no need to play the games. The Mariners’ pathetic offense may sink their ship regardless of whether the Astros falter.
It's good for the Astros that they have built a working margin atop the division. The schedule the rest of the way now substantially favors the Mariners. There are 10 teams more than 10 games over .500 for the season. The Astros had ascended to the club before dropping the last two games of their series with the Red Sox to sit at 68-58. The Astros play 20 of their remaining 36 games against the upper crust ten teams. After finishing with the Dodgers Wednesday night the Mariners have just five of their final 34 games against the top tier.
The Astros’ schedule stiffened with the Red Sox visiting Minute Maid Park, though the BoSox are not one of the teams more than 10 games over .500. Now the schedule gets stiffer. The Astros start their on paper toughest road trip of the season Thursday night. Four games at AL East power Baltimore are followed by three games at National League East leading Philadelphia. Though since spectacular starts (the Phillies 45-19, the Orioles 45-22) both have sub .500 records. Still, both run out batting orders clearly superior to what the Astros post these days. Upon return to Houston the Astros get the surprisingly contending Kansas City Royals for a four-game set. That’s eleven straight games vs. very good opponents. Meanwhile, the Mariners imminent slate has three home games versus the mediocre Giants then three at home versus the mediocre Rays, followed by three at the crummy Angels then four at the improved but still way below .500 A’s. However, in a two-week stretch earlier this month, the Mariners dumped two series to the sub-.500 Tigers and another to the free-falling Pirates. Having a marshmallow schedule is only a delicious advantage if you eat it up.
In defeat Wednesday the Astros got two welcome sights with the returns of Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander. Bregman hitting a leadoff homer with Jose Altuve getting a wise day off was exciting. Alas (actually, alases--is there a plural for alas?) it would be the Astros’ only run in the 4-1 loss. In a more critical at bat with the Astros down 3-1 in the bottom of the seventh inning with the bases loaded and one out, Bregman hit a lazy foul fly ball to right on a first pitch fastball right in the sweet spot of his strike zone. The kind of at bat we saw way too often from Bregman when he was so awful the first quarter of the season. But hey, bad at bats happen. Yordan Alvarez then striking out on three pitches, the last not remotely close to the strike zone, ended the Astros' last threat.
The bigger concern is, “just slept funny” story notwithstanding, it seems Bregman has bone chips in his right elbow. Not that the Astros have been forthcoming about it. Bregman is not inhibited swinging the bat, but how is the elbow for throwing? If he’s not playing the field soon, uh oh. It appears that postseason surgery looms, as after the 2018 season. If Bregman is to be in the lineup almost every day but needs to frequently be the designated hitter, that would mean several things. Either Mauricio Dubon’s weak offense or the utterly unproven and defensively questionable Shay Whitcomb or Zach Dezenzo plays third. The already overworked Altuve would play second nearly every game the rest of the way. Alvarez DH opportunities would be somewhat compromised.
Verlander meanwhile, after a rough first two innings settled in beautifully and retired the last ten batters he faced. If the Astros could be assured Verlander would give them exactly the five innings and two runs allowed he did vs. the Sox, that would be just fine.
Kyle Tucker. Bueller? Bueller?
June 18 it was sweet dreams over sleepless in Seattle when the Mariners had a ten-game lead. Just 24 games later the Astros had caught them. Monday night the Astros went night-night with a five-game lead. The whopping 15-game turnaround in two months and two days is amazing. The Mariners have history with being on the positive side of such a coin. In 1995 the Mariners awoke 13 games behind the California Angels, on August 3. Less than two months later, the Mariners capped a positive (for them) stunning 15-game turnaround to go up three games on the Angels with just five games left in the regular season. The Angels showed resolve winning all five while the Mariners went 2-3. Result? A tie for the AL West title and a one-game playoff. The Mariners won it behind the complete game pitching of Randy Johnson to secure their first ever postseason appearance. One-game playoffs no longer exist with the season series winner owning the tiebreaker.
The all-time cake-taker of in-season turnarounds goes to the 1914 “Miracle Braves,” who were the Boston Braves in those days. After dropping a July 4 doubleheader the Braves sat 26-40, 15 games out of first place. They then uncorked an epic rampage through the rest of their schedule, going 68-19 to win the National League pennant (no divisions back then) by 10 and a half games! As an appropriate capper the Braves then swept the World Series from the Philadelphia Athletics.
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With reports now flooding in about the possibility of the Astros trading Kyle Tucker and/or Framber Valdez this offseason, we have to consider this a real possibility.
With that in mind, what should the Astros expect in return? And what would these trades mean for the Astros' chances to compete in 2025 and beyond?
Be sure to watch the video above as ESPN Houston's Joe George and Paul Gallant share their thoughts!