MLB insiders projecting seismic Houston Astros roster shakeup
INSIDE INFORMATION
15 November 2023
In many aspects this has been a good week for the Astros as they hired their new manager Joe Espada, and it appears GM Dana Brown was firmly in charge of the process.
On the other hand, we've seen numerous reports about Alex Bregman's future, or lack their of, in an Astros uniform. Bob Nightengale and our own John Granato are hearing that this will likely be Bregman's last year with the club, and he will undoubtedly receive a contract offer that the Astros will be unwilling to match.
Granato has also reported Bregman is buying a house in Arizona, read into that what you will.
Manny Machado received an 11-year contract extension last season worth $350 million, which includes a no-trade clause with no op-outs. And if you compare Bregman's career numbers to Machado's, you could make a case Breggy deserves as much if not more.
Machado’s lifetime batting average: .279. On-base percentage: 339. Slugging:.490. OPS: .829.
Bregman’s lifetime batting average :. 274. On-base percentage: .373. Slugging: .487. OPS: .861.
We know the Astros don't hand out deals with this many years on them, so we need to prepare for life after Bregman. Which brings us to Kyle Tucker. As it stands now, most believe Tucker will leave the following year, for the same reason as Bregman.
Justin Verlander is another player to keep an eye on. If he doesn't reach 140 innings pitched in 2024, his deal for 2025 won't vest, and he could be gone after the 2024 season.
On the bright side, it looks like the Astros will work to re-sign Jose Altuve, but to be fair, he's not looking for an 10-year deal. Altuve will be 34 in May, and reportedly would like to play until he's 40. The Astros may not want to go that many years, but a 4-year deal could make a lot of sense for both parties.
But based on everything that was outlined above, we can make the case that the 2024 season will be the last legitimate opportunity for the Astros to cement their dynasty with a third championship.
Plus, when preparing for life after Bregman and one year later Tucker, there's one player in particular that could make us feel better as the team transitions in 2024 and 2025.
Jeremy Pena. If Pena can return to form and hit 20-25 home runs and bat around .250, we would feel a lot better about losing Bregman's bat in the infield. He's also a right-handed hitter like Bregman that could take advantage of the Crawford Boxes.
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How Astros can look to silver lining solutions coming out of the Break
Jul 14, 2025, 3:49 pm
After riding high from a statement sweep of the Dodgers, the Astros limped into the All-Star break, having lost five of their last six games, including two of three to the rival Rangers. They still hold a five-game lead in the American League West, but the momentum they carried into July has cooled considerably.
While it’s tempting to point to the battered lineup as the reason for Houston’s recent struggles, the more pressing issue has been on the mound. For much of the season, elite pitching has masked an offense operating in the league’s bottom third. But during this six-game slide, the script flipped. Over the last seven days, Houston ranks 24th in team ERA at 5.37. The offense hasn’t been great either, 20th in runs, 22nd in OPS, 23rd in batting average, but those numbers aren’t that far off their season-long identity. The difference is that the pitching has stopped bailing them out.
The good news? Help may be (somewhat) on the way.
Astros GM Dana Brown recently provided updates on three key contributors. Shortstop Jeremy Peña isn’t expected back immediately after the break, but Brown said it shouldn’t be long before he returns from a fractured rib. Yordan Alvarez, meanwhile, is progressing well from his hand injury. According to Brown, Alvarez has “absolutely no pain” and will be re-evaluated Thursday. If cleared to swing, the Astros plan to expedite his return. Center fielder Jake Meyers, however, remains at least three weeks away as he recovers from a calf injury.
On the pitching front, expectations for late-season contributions from Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia remain uncertain. Both pitchers have thrown rehab starts recently in the Florida Complex League. Garcia has now been out for over two years following Tommy John surgery. If he’s not able to return this season, serious questions will need to be asked about his long-term outlook. Javier, also rehabbing from Tommy John, may be an option in August, but expectations should be tempered. As Brown himself has admitted, he tends to be optimistic. Fans would be wise to stay grounded.
Another arm to watch is Spencer Arrighetti. With no major injury (thumb) holding him back, Arrighetti may be Houston’s most viable rotation boost in the second half.
Fortunately, the schedule sets up favorably after the break. Over the next seven series, the Astros face four sub-.500 teams. But that doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed, especially if current trends continue.
Lance McCullers remains an enigma. When he’s locked in, he gives Houston a legitimate No. 3-caliber arm. When he’s off, he’s out of the game early and the bullpen pays the price. Manager Joe Espada faces one of his toughest managing challenges every time McCullers takes the hill.
Cam Smith has cooled off at the plate, hitless in his last 11 at-bats. He’s also been bounced all over the batting order. A simple solution? Plant him in the cleanup spot and let him adjust without the added mental shuffle.
And then there’s Josh Hader. The All-Star closer has surrendered home runs in three of his last four outings. If Houston is going to continue winning tight games with a low-margin offense, Hader has to be lights-out. His dominance alongside a top-tier setup man (Bryan Abreu) has been a pillar of the Astros’ success model this season. They need that foundation to hold.
The Astros aren’t panicking — nor should they. But after a hot run turned lukewarm, the margin for error is shrinking. The second half opens with an opportunity to bank wins and regain rhythm. Whether Houston capitalizes depends on health, consistency, and maybe a little creativity from the front office.
There's so much more to discuss! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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