A risky proposition
This MLB wildcard could be all the difference in Astros retaining tent pole stars
Nov 9, 2023, 4:11 pm
Houston is on the clock. Composite Getty Image.
Bench - Bregman
Scott Boras, the agent for both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, says there’s “been an expression of desire” by the Astros to sign their star players to contract extensions this offseason, “but obviously that’s not something we’ve approached yet.”
For the Astros part, general manager Dana Brown says, “I think we’re going to look into talking to both of them, particularly this offseason, maybe all the way up to spring training. Once the season starts we really don’t want to get too much into it.”
What does all this mean beyond the time-honored posturing of greedy agent versus penny-pinching team?
It means that the Astros haven’t crunched their numbers down to pennies and are figuring out how much and for how long they can offer Altuve and Bregman for future services.
They better get it right this time. Last year’s offseason contract dangling came back to bite the Astros butts in 2023. Without a proper general manager in place, the Astros biggest free agent signings were first baseman Jose Abreu (3 years, $58.5 million), reliever Rafael Montero (3 years, $34.5 million) and “professional hitter” but mostly injured list resident Michael Brantley (1 year, $12 million). Although Abreu’s bat woke up in late season, all three signings were disappointments.
The Astros better get it right with Altuve and Bregman, both of whose contracts expire at the end of next season. If the Astros dawdle and try to buy cheap, or agent Boras plays hard to get and lets Altuve and Bregman get to free agency (as Boras is famous for doing with his clients), then look out below.
While Altuve is (let’s stop with the “may be”) the greatest Astro ever, the days of players accepting a hometown discount are over. Altuve will turn 34 next season. He would still be in his prime with lots of tread on his tires. He is beloved in Houston. He looks like Houston. He hits in the clutch. Everything about Altuve is good.
There will be civil unrest in Houston if the Astros don’t lock up Altuve for the rest of his career.
Bregman is a more complicated deal. The third baseman will be 31 next season. If he gets to free agency, teams will have to take a number to get in line to meet with Boras. While the Astros are loathe to offer deals for more than $150 million and longer than four or five years, well, they better get over that if they want to keep Bregman.
If Bregman gets to free agency, you can imagine the Yankees backing up a Brinks truck to sign him. Bregman in New York? Young mothers would be handing him their babies to raise. They’d be naming streets and buildings after him – there may be a few properties available soon. Bregman and his wife Reagan would be hosting Good Morning New York. He’d be throwing out the Opening Day ceremonial first pitch to himself.
Last season Manny Machado signed an 11-year extension worth $350 million with the San Diego Padres. The deal includes a no-trade clause with no op-outs. Machado will be 41 when the contract is up. Machado is a superstar, right? And that’s the kind of money that superstars get, right?. You want to know something? Machado ain’t got nothing on Alex Bregman.
Machado’s lifetime batting average is .279. His career on-base percentage is .339. His slugging is .490. His OPS is .829.
Bregman’s lifetime batting average is .274. His career on-base percentage is .373. His slugging is .487. His OPS is .861.
They’re basically the same player. If anything, let’s give the edge to Bregman because he’s a year younger. When the playoffs roll around, Bregman has Machado beat by a wide margin.
You’re on the clock, Astros.
Sure, the Astros have let star players go before. You remember Carlos Correa, George Springer and Gerrit Cole? They used to play here. The Astros didn’t make serious offers to keep any of them.
Plus the Astros have to look beyond 2024 when they’ll have to pony up with Kyle Tucker or get off the pot. Framber Valdez, Chas McCormick and others are waiting for their crack at big money, too. That’s the problem with baseball – other teams want good players, too.
But that’s then, this is now, and the Astros better get it done with Altuve and Bregman or they’ll lose all the goodwill they’ve established with Houston these past years.
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The Texans make just their third ever visit to Lambeau Field Sunday. It’s a dandy matchup as the Texans try to run their record to 6-1 at the expense of the 4-2 Green Bay Packers. The Texans have one win and one loss in Wisconsin. In 2008 the gameday high temperature was 13 degrees. Kris Brown kicked a 40 yard field goal as time expired to give the Texans a 24-21 win over a Packers team that struggled to a 6-10 record under first-year starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Texans posted their second consecutive 8-8 finish that year. In 2016 the mercury reached a balmy high of 34 degrees as the Texans fell 21-13 at Lambeau. Inexplicably, Rodgers somehow managed to win the quarterback matchup with Brock Osweiler. The Texans and Packers each won their division that year. Both Texans’ trips to “America’s Dairyland” occurred in December. No risk of frozen tundra this time around. The forecast for Green Bay Sunday calls for a high of 75 degrees! That’s almost 20 degrees warmer than normal there for October 20.
It’s a dynamic QB matchup with C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love sharing the field. Love broke out in a huge way in 2023 after serving a two-year apprenticeship under Rodgers. After a stumbling 3-6 start to their season the Packers went 6-2 the rest of the way to snag a playoff spot. They obliterated the Cowboys in a Wild Card game in Arlington (before everyone obliterated the Cowboys in Arlington...) then led at the 49ers with under 90 seconds to go before San Francisco scored to win 24-21. The Packers made crystal clear their belief in Love by signing him to a four-year 220 million dollar contract extension in July. That’s 55 mil per season. Stroud becomes extension-eligible after next season. Anyone think he won’t be in position to command at least 65 mil per season?
Stroud sure looks to be the guy to finally give the Texans the long-term stability and excellence they have never had at the most important position in the sport. The Pack is all in on Love continuing its unreal long-term QB stability and excellence. Love took the reins after Rodgers helmed the offense for 15 seasons. Rodgers took the reins after Brett Favre’s 16-year tenure. So if Love makes it for nine years as the starter, that’s three primary QBs in 40 years. Absolutely amazing.
After missing two games because of a sprained knee ligament suffered in the final seconds of the Packers’ season opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil, Love has thrown 10 touchdown passes in three games. But he has only completed 59 percent of his passes, and has thrown at least one interception per game.
The Texans’ first trip to the NFC North this season went brutally badly, the 34-7 beatdown from Minnesota. The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in week four of the season. That was Love’s first game back, he threw four touchdown passes and three picks. One defensive weapon the Texans will have against the Pack they did not have against the Vikes is Denico Autry. The 34-year-old Autry returns from his six-game banned substance suspension. That happens as one of the fill-ins for him, Mario Edwards, starts his own four-game substance abuse suspension. That should be a net improvement for the Texans.
X-factors
The single biggest variable in swinging the outcome of football games is turnovers. So far this season the Packers have been a takeaway machine. Last season the Packers generated just 18 turnovers over their 17 regular season games, only six teams took the ball away less often. Through just six games this season the Packers already have 17 takeaways. No other NFL team has more than 13, the Texans have just seven. The Packers have produced exactly three turnovers in five of their six games, and got two in the other. Every defense preaches turnovers, so it’s not as if first-year Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has introduced radical concepts that are yielding magical results. But the results are what they are.
If the Texans take care of the ball, they have a terrific chance to win. Having Joe Mixon back aids the cause on two fronts. One, Mixon is obviously the Texans’ best running back. Two, Mixon last fumbled in 2021. The Texans probably best plan to score 25 or more points to win this one because the Packers figure to score a bit. In Love’s four starts the Pack has lit the scoreboard for 29, 29, 24, and 34 points. On the other hand, the Texans’ D has been pretty stout, allowing the third-fewest yards per game (Green Bay rates 18th). It’s a strength vs. strength battle. The Texans have allowed no opponent more than 313 yards in total offense. The Packers have amassed at least 378 yards in five of their six games, and managed 328 in their worst performance.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!