THE WAITING GAME
Weighing critical context, uncomfortable truths driving Alex Bregman dilemma
May 8, 2024, 2:53 pm
Alex Bregman and the Astros are running out of time. Composite Getty Image.
There’s a sign outside of McDonald’s that keeps track of the millions and millions of hamburgers they’ve sold.
There could be a sign outside Minute Maid Park that keeps track of the millions and millions of dollars Alex Bregman is losing by having the worst season of his career in his contract year.
Maybe instead of appearing in H-E-B commercials he could sign an endorsement deal with Rice Krispies and be part of Snap, Crackle and Pop Out.
Tuesday night, Bregman went 0-4 against the Yankees and his batting average dropped below .200 into Martin Maldonado territory.
Bregman entered this season claiming to be in the best shape of his life and promising big things for 2024.
“My body feels in incredible shape,” Bregman said at the start of spring training. “Swing feels better than ever. And looking forward to a great, healthy season. And I expect to have the best season I’ve ever had.”
And remember when Astros general manager Dana Brown assured fans, don’t worry, we’re going to offer Bregman a contract to stay with the Astros?
“Look, we love Alex, we’d love to have him here. As far as a timeline, we just don’t have it, but we will at some point make him an offer. We know how good he is and how good he’s been for this franchise. It would be tough to look out at third base and not see that elite defense. And so at some point we’ll circle back and have those conversations,” Brown said.
Godot will show up before the Astros put a contract on the table for Bregman. (For those who didn’t read Waiting for Godot in English Lit 101 … Godot never appears in the book.)
With the season nearly a quarter over, Bregman is batting .195. He’s been hitting at the top of the order the entire year, either in the No. 2 spot or cleanup. His power outage would make the Texas grid system look good: 6 runs, 11 RBI and one home run.
Stop saying “Bregman always has a slow start.” Start ended a couple of weeks ago. And stop saying “He will snap out of it.” In his last 10 games, Bregman’s average has dwindled from .216 to .195.
Bregman’s hitting woes actually are part of a five-year trend. In 2019 he had his best season, hitting .296 and smacking 41 home runs.
Since then:
2020: .242 and 6 home runs (Covid season).
2021: .270 and 12 home runs.
2022: .259 and 23 home runs.
2023: .262 and 25 home runs.
If Bregman’s struggles continue, this will be his fifth below-average season in a row. Back in spring training, there was talk of him getting a super long-term deal worth $200 million-plus when he hits free agency at the end of this season.
Chances of that happening: none. As things stand now, Bregman has a better chance of becoming Jerry Seinfeld’s latex salesman.
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The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills both enter Week 5 with identical records, looking to continue their strong early-season performances. The Texans, led by breakout quarterback C.J. Stroud, come off a thrilling 24-20 win over Jacksonville, while the Bills are seeking to bounce back after a disappointing 35-10 loss to Baltimore.
Bet MGM NFL Odds: Bills favored by 1
Against the Spread: Buffalo 2-2, Houston 0-3-1
Series Record: Texans lead 6-5
Last Meeting: Bills defeated Texans 40-0 (Oct. 3, 2021)
Key matchups and players to watch
Texans WR Nico Collins:
Collins has been one of the most productive receivers in the NFL this season, leading the league with 489 receiving yards. Coming off a career-best performance with 12 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville, Collins will be a key target for Stroud against Buffalo’s strong secondary.
Bills DE A.J. Epenesa:
With Von Miller suspended, Epenesa will be expected to step up as Buffalo’s primary pass rusher. Epenesa has one sack through four starts and needs to take on a larger role with the absence of Miller, who leads the NFL's active players in sacks.
Texans WR Stefon Diggs vs. Former Team:
Diggs, who was traded to the Texans in the offseason, will face his former team for the first time. He has been productive for Houston, logging 233 yards and two receiving touchdowns this season, as well as his first career rushing touchdown last week.
Key injuries
The Bills face multiple injury concerns, including linebacker Terrel Bernard, cornerback Taron Johnson, and safety Taylor Rapp, all of whom are questionable. Buffalo's leading receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) has been ruled out. The Texans could see the return of WR Tank Dell after he missed last week, though RB Joe Mixon is not expected to play. LT Laremy Tunsil is questionable, which could impact their offensive game plan.
Update: Aaron Wilson has the latest on which Texans players are practicing on Friday.
#Texans Joe Mixon remains out of practice and not expected to play Sunday against #Bills Dameon Pierce returns, Tytus Howard sidelined @KPRC2 https://t.co/DR0IKzAC7C
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 4, 2024
Team stats and trends
Bills Offense:
Buffalo’s offense ranks second in scoring but has been inconsistent, as seen in their 10-point showing against the Ravens last week. Josh Allen, while turnover-prone in the past, is on a four-game streak without throwing an interception.
Texans Defense:
Houston’s defense has been a standout, ranking fifth overall and excelling against the pass, which could be key against the Bills' passing attack. However, their 40 penalties this season have been a major issue, and they'll need more discipline to keep pace with Buffalo.
Texans Offense:
Houston's passing game has been stellar, with Stroud leading the Texans to the 8th-best offense overall and the 3rd-ranked passing attack. This will be a critical factor against Buffalo’s defense, which ranks 6th against the pass.
Fantasy tip
Look for Nico Collins to continue his dominant streak as Stroud’s top target. Collins has over 80 receiving yards in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Final thoughts
This matchup pits a strong Texans passing game against a resilient Bills defense. Buffalo holds the slight edge in the spread, and with both teams vying for a crucial win, this should be a hard-fought contest.
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ChatGPT contributed to this content.