THE PALLILOG
How the Houston Astros season could hinge on this critical date
Mar 23, 2023, 3:25 pm
When will Jose Altuve return? Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.
Come Thursday, there is nothing that can wreck the joy for the Astros and their fans of the unveiling of the 2022 World Series championship pennant inside Minute Maid Park, or of the following night’s distribution of their World Series rings. That said, losing Jose Altuve for at least the first two months of the regular season comes about as close as any Astro or fan would want to get. It’s a major blow to the Astros on multiple levels, but definitely not devastating to their chances of making a run at becoming the first back-to-back World Series champs since the Yankees won three straight in 1998, 1999, and 2000. Yes kids, a looooong time ago the Yankees actually used to make the World Series.
Altuve had his surgery Wednesday (March 22) with the Astros saying he is at least two months away from resuming baseball activities. He won’t need a full spring training length of preparation, but it will certainly take at least a week. If offered June 1 as Altuve Opening Day with good health the rest of the year, the Astros would be silly not to pounce on such an offer. Let’s say he’s ready June 1, though that’s probably a shade optimistic. The Astros have 55 games scheduled through May, that’s one more than one-third of the 162 game regular season slate. So as collateral damage to the injury, as unlikely as Altuve was to put together a 200 hit season anyway, now there is zero chance. Unless he wins the vote to be a starter, a ninth All-Star team selection is basically a goner too. We’ll see down the road what losing 50 or 60 or 70 hits means in a possible chase for 3000 career hits. What matters most though is the impact on the 2023 Astros.
Altuve had a fabulous 2022, the third-best season of his career. Still, even if he was to play at that level again this year, it’s not as if missing Altuve for a third of the season costs the Astros 10 wins. He was a little over a five Wins Above Replacement Player (WAR) last season. WAR meaning if a guy was replaced by a borderline Major Leaguer how many wins would the team lose. Five wins is a little under one per month, so in theory, replacing Altuve with a fringe guy for two months should hurt the Astros roughly two games in the win column. Intuitively that seems low, but the methodology is sound, though I won’t go deep diving into it here.
Anyway, if Mauricio Dubon is to get the bulk of the playing time at second while Altuve is out, yikes. Dubon offers little hope for much better than replacement level. A versatile defensive reserve, offensively he’s not umm….. he’s not umm…he’s not good (a tip of the ballcap to Ty Webb). Dubon has a .653 career OPS. That’s better than Martin Maldonado. That’s damning with faint praise. Dubon also isn’t some prospect with seemingly unfilled potential. He turns 29 in July. The Astros don’t have a prototypical leadoff hitter without Altuve, but it’s managerial malpractice if Dusty Baker puts Dubon atop the lineup, as he did four times last season.
David Hensley isn’t a major prospect either. He turns 27 next week. His Major League resume is wafer thin (34 regular season plate appearances), but there is virtually no doubt he would provide better offense than Dubon. Hensley had a .420 on base percentage at AAA last year, .369 at AA the year before. Could Hensley handle the defensive end of things well enough, especially as the “no more shifts” era begins? It’s not as if Dubon has the defensive chops of Roberto Alomar.
In losing Altuve for an extended period, the Astros lose their leadoff hitter, and I’ll say their soul. They still have plenty of heart. And talent. Better that he suffered the injury March 18 than August 18. Another possible silver lining: Altuve had a couple of leg issues last season. It’s not the worst thing in the world that Altuve will have two fewer months of wear and tear on the legs when he first takes the field this season. Altuve turns 33 May 6.
Their margin for error is now less but the Astros' regular season goals remain unchanged and very plausibly attainable. First, again win the American League West. Second, secure one of the best two records among the three division winners to avoid the best-of-three Wild Card round. Third, again put up the best record in the AL for homefield advantage through the AL playoffs.
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The Astros dropped a tough one Tuesday night, falling 4–2 to the White Sox after slipping behind early. But before anyone reaches for the panic button, take a breath — this team may not look like the dominant, late-inning machine from 2022, but there are still reasons to believe something bigger could be brewing.
In this episode, we unpack what this loss really means and why the bigger picture still matters. Despite a wave of injuries, the Astros are hanging a few games over the .500 mark — a feat that may be more impressive than it seems on the surface.
We take a closer look at Lance McCullers Jr., who’s no longer fighting for a spot at the back of the rotation. His stuff looks sharper, and his role as a solid No. 3 is starting to take shape. We also spotlight Ryan Gusto, a young arm who might quietly become a key piece down the stretch.
The offense hasn’t exploded the way fans hoped, but maybe that’s the point — Houston is still in the fight, and in some ways, overachieving considering the circumstances. Rookie Cam Smith is settling in nicely at the big-league level, and although Christian Walker has underwhelmed, Isaac Paredes has emerged as one of the top third basemen in the American League. Plus, let's not forget Yordan Alvarez should be returning in short order to give the offense a lift.
And yes, it’s early, but we can’t help but wonder… could this be the start of another World Series run? After all, the Astros were swept by the White Sox in 2017 — and we all remember how that story ended.
Be sure to watch the video below as ESPN Houston's John Granato and Lance Zierlein weigh in!
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