THE PALLILOG
With new pieces in place, Astros rookie skipper must address these intriguing decisions ahead of season
Feb 1, 2024, 12:30 pm
Who will take the ball on Opening Day versus Gerrit Cole? Composite Getty Image.
There is a much better indicator that spring is just around the corner than if Punxsutawney Phil doesn’t see his shadow on Groundhog Day. Next week the Astros’ equipment trucks hit the road for beautiful West Palm Beach, Florida. Appropriately for all right-minded folks who love baseball, the Astros’ first workout of spring training is on Valentine’s Day. February 14 is day one for pitchers and catchers with the full squad on the field together for the first time February 19. 38 days later the Astros face Gerrit Cole and the Yankees on Opening Day at Minute Maid Park. Who does new manager Joe Espada hand the ball to start game one of 162 for the Astros? Barring injuries there are only two candidates. Framber Valdez started the opener the last two seasons. Does Espada stick with Valdez as an early show of belief after Framber largely fell apart after the All-Star break last season? Or does he go with Justin Verlander because, well, he’s Justin Verlander? I wouldn’t call it a high drama decision, but interesting nonetheless, and it means we’re talking Astros baseball!
Gratuitous sidebar: Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I are raring to go for a second season of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Available on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts.
With due respect to the Astros’ acquisition this week of Trey Cabbage from the Angels’, the big get of the Astros’ offseason was the “Wow!” signing of relief ace Josh Hader. The loss of Kendall Graveman for the season made it clear the Astros needed another quality bullpen arm. It also made it clear that the Astros could not stay under the first Collective Bargaining Tax threshold and with a straight face say they were doing all they could reasonably do going into a season in which they take aim to repeat as American League West Champion, reach an absurd eighth consecutive AL Championship series, and hopefully go beyond. So Jim Crane signed off on the whopping five year 95 million dollar guarantee to Hader. 19 million dollars per season is quite a chunk for a guy who last reached 60 innings pitched in 2019.
Hader joins Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu to give the Astros an epic three man back of the bullpen. The comparisons to the Astros' 2003 pen threesome of Billy Wagner, Octavio Dotel, and Brad Lidge are natural and fun to make for those who remember that squad. One key comparison that better not apply eight months from now: the 2003 Astros missed the playoffs. Hader is a tremendous addition but let’s remember that the Astros got a 1.71 earned run average from Hector Neris last season. Hader posted a teeny 1.28 ERA, but it should be noted he pitched in home games at San Diego’s very pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Hader’s ERA at home was 0.31. Not that anyone should be scoffing at his 2.30 road mark. So Hader joining the pen actually doesn’t figure to make the Astros’ big three relievers much better than last season’s performance. The trickle down positive is big though, with questionable relievers (i.e. Rafael Montero, Forrest Whitley) pushed down the bullpen totem pole.
In games they led at the end of six innings last season, the Astros went 72-6. They’re not going to improve much upon that. As frame of reference, in games the Astros trailed after six innings they went 9-54.
Hypothetical: would you rather have Hader inked on his 19 million/year deal, or re-signed Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek? Neris got nine million from the Cubs with another nine million guaranteed for 2025 is he appears in 60 games this season (Neris has reached 70 appearances each of the last three years). The still unsigned Maton and Stanek seem unlikely to get much more than 10 mil between them. I’d go Hader but there is a case for three over one. Neris had a fabulous 2023 but some of his underlying statistics raise question marks. Maton was much better in the first half of the season than in the second. I will miss Stanek’s Minute Maid Park entrance music, “Still D.R.E.”
Briefly re: Cabbage, the Astros now have a Cabbage and a Cubbage in their history. Mike Cubbage was a coach on Larry Dierker’s staff from 1997-2001. Trey Cabbage has a shot to beat out Jon Singleton for an all-or-nothing left-handed swinger bench spot. Singleton is 32 years old and has pretty conclusively shown he can’t hit Major League pitching. Cabbage turns 27 in May and is coming off a 30-homer 32-stolen base season in AAA. He’s not a notable prospect however. Cabbage amassed his numbers as a Salt Lake Bee. If Salt Lake City had a big league team, only Denver would rate as a better place for hitters. Denver is the Mile High City. Salt Lake City is the 4/5 of a mile high city. The ball flies there too. Cabbage was overmatched in his initial sampling of big league pitching. Cabbage stunk (skunk Cabbage?) with 26 strikeouts in 53 at bats. But that he can play the outfield in addition to first base, and has speed, give him some edges over Singleton.
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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