THE PALLILOG
Astros set for pivotal homestand, demotion marks new chapter for Houston
Aug 28, 2024, 10:49 pm
The Astros host the Royals this Thursday-Sunday. Composite Getty Image.
Nothing bad about the Astros having a 3-4 road trip given they played four at Baltimore and three at Philadelphia. Nothing but brilliance from Spencer Arrighetti who bookended the trip with six shutout innings against the Orioles, and then a no-hit bid into the eighth inning at the Phillies. Yeah, one can think “coulda, woulda, shoulda” about the two they lost to the Orioles, but the Astros also have wins this season they “coulda, woulda, shoulda” lost. Besides, the rule of thumb with the 2024 Astros is they lose most of their close games and win the more one-sided tilts. It is a myth that the good teams win most of their close games, but geez the Astros' results are as if they are trying to really disprove the myth. They are an awful 14-23 in one-run games, a merely subpar 10-13 in two-run games. In games decided by three or more runs, the Astros are a sensational 47-26. The 3-4 trip vs. upper echelon competition is acceptable, though the Mariners winning two series two-out of-three in the meantime whittled the Astros’ American League West lead to three and a half games. The Astros should continue to count their blessings for being in the AL West. With their season record at 71-62, if in any other division Astros’ division title chances would be between slim and none. The closest to first place they’d be in any other division is four and a half games behind Cleveland in the AL Central. But as ever, play the course.
The Mariners play their next ten games against losing teams: three at the Angels, four at the A’s, three at the Cardinals. The Astros play through the weekend in a four-game set against the Kansas City Royals at Minute Maid Park. The Royals are Major League Baseball’s biggest surprise in 2024. Last season the Royals finished 56-106 with only the Oakland A’s worse (50-112). This season they are probably headed to the postseason, though they do have a fairly tough closing schedule. The Royals arrive in Houston at 75-59, including a three-game demolition of the Astros in KC in April. The Royals are on pace to win 90 games. No team in MLB history has ever won more than 87 games in the season following a 100-loss season.
There are numerous reasons for the Royals’ dramatic turnaround. Near the top of the list is shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. exploding into a superduperstar. If he plays the final sixth of the season at near the level he’s played the first five-sixths, Witt will finish with one of the 10 most awesome all-around seasons any shortstop has ever posted. Honus Wagner is generally regarded as the greatest shortstop of all-time. Wagner had one season as dominant as what Witt is doing this season. The same for Ernie Banks, Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken Jr., and Robin Yount—one season apiece on par with Witt Jr.’s 2024. Derek Jeter never had a season close to this good. Bobby Witt Jr. is 24 years old. The small market Royals have him signed for six more years before Witt Jr. can opt out for free agency at age 30. The American League Most Valuable Player Award race has only two candidates: Witt Jr., and Aaron Judge who is having a peak Mickey Mantle-esque season for the Yankees and has a shot at the Triple Crown. With his 51 home runs and 123 runs batted, Judge has those two categories sewn up. He goes into the weekend batting .333.
Not to excessively fawn over Witt Jr. (ok, maybe a bit), but he leads MLB with a .346 batting average and has a 1.017 OPS. With runners in scoring position he’s batting a spectacular .393 with a 1.219 OPS. And he probably is going to rightfully win the Gold Glove for his defense. As a team the Royals lead MLB batting a stout .293 with runners in scoring position (believe it or not the Astros are ninth best at .268). Witt leads all players with teammates Vinnie Pasquantino second at .360 and Salvador Perez seventh at .346. Yainer Diaz ranks fifth at .351, Jose Altuve eighth at .343. That is among the 137 players with the minimum number of plate appearances to qualify in rate statistics. For inquiring minds who want to know… Jeremy Pena ranks 34th among the 137, Yordan Alvarez 54th, Alex Bregman 92nd (with just three hits in his last 25 at bats with RISP), and Jake Meyers 107th.
It is sadly ironic that after a stunningly miserable season-long performance, Chas McCormick finally loses his big-league roster spot after homering as a pinch-hitter in garbage time of the Astros’ Wednesday laugher over the Phils. The homer “improved” McCormick’s average to .192, his OPS to .548. “Chazzy Fizzled Out” was overdue to get sent to the minors. The signing of 35-year-old Dodger dumpee Jason Heyward makes it a reality. 32-year-old Ben Gamel isn’t going to become some big offensive force, but he has been a nice boost with 10 hits in 23 at bats since joining the Astros last week. It’s a boost where every little bit helps in a close race if Heyward and Gamel deliver even modest improvement over the carousel of impotent offensive output the Astros’ have gotten since Kyle Tucker went down June 3.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Green and Sengun help the Rockets beat the short-handed Nuggets 128-108
Jan 15, 2025, 10:57 pm
If you are a believer in the third time is a charm, go ahead and book the Texans for their first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game! Saturday is the Texans’ third crack at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Of course, the Texans had a third time is the charm opportunity at advancing beyond the division round back in 2016 and came nowhere close. Charm will have nothing to do with the outcome at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have administered the Texans’ two most humiliating postseason defeats in franchise history. They came as the bookend postseason appearances of Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach. In 2015, the Texans won the worst division in the AFC (that sounds familiar) but as a division champ got to play host to the Wild Card 11-5 Chiefs. The visitors were three-point favorites. They won by 30. 30-0 to be more precise. Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a touchdown. It would have been in the Texans’ best interest to have forfeited right then and there. In what was not exactly a shocking development, Texans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn’t up to the task, throwing for just 112 yards and four interceptions. On the Chiefs’ side third-year tight end Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 128 yards. Taylor Swift was not in attendance.
The second Texans-Chiefs playoff get together is the most incredible game in Texans’ history. The Texans showed up in Missouri fresh off the greatest comeback win in their history, having come from down 16-0 in the third quarter to best the Buffalo Bills in overtime. In what could safely be characterized as stunning, the Texans put up three first quarter touchdowns for a 21-0 lead. *Massive bonus points if you can name the three Texans who scored those TDs, answer below. A field goal made it 24-0 Texans with 10:54 left in the second quarter. In a collapse tough to pull off, the Texans would trail before halftime. The Chiefs scored four touchdowns in nine minutes and eleven seconds of game time, with that Kelce fellow scoring the last three of them. Some will recall O’Brien calling a fake punt from his own 31-yard line with the Texans up 24-7. Too soon? Justin Reid (now pursuing his third Super Bowl ring in three seasons as a Chief) was stopped short. An even more damning O’Brien moment came later in that game when he actually had to use a timeout to change his mind and go for it with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter, the Texans down 48-31, and facing fourth and four at the K.C. 42. That was a fire-able on the spot offense! Instead it took an 0-4 start to the 2020 season for O’Brien to be ousted. 51-31 Chiefs was the final score, and they went on to win the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the ongoing Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.
Back to the present
Those routs were then, this is now. For a 15-2 team the Chiefs seem vulnerable. Maximum credit to them for having won an NFL record 16 consecutive games decided by eight or fewer points, 11 of them this season including their 27-19 victory over the Texans December 21. Perhaps the two-time defending champions were often bored with the regular season and often did just enough to win. The Texans would have been tied with them late in the third quarter had Ka’imi Fairbairn not botched an extra point. On the other hand, it was the play that got them within 17-16 which resulted in Tank Dell’s catastrophic season-ending knee injury. Who besides Nico Collins will do something in the passing game Saturday? Last Saturday the Texans’ pass rush harassed and flustered Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Mahomes is a different breed. Four weeks ago the Texans sacked Mahomes just once and did not intercept him. That seemingly must change for the Texans to pull off what be a shocker for most people. Saturday’s high temperature forecast for Kansas City is 25 degrees. Not ideal for the Texans but better than if the game had been scheduled for Sunday when the high is supposed to be 16.
Still standing
Four Texans who dressed for the debacle five years ago will suit up against the Chiefs Saturday: Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard who were in their first season with the team, Fairbairn, and long snapper Jon Weeks. Granted he’s just a long snapper (important role but not physically taxing), but Weeks is in his 15th season with the Texans and has yet to miss a game-244 regular season games (with Saturday his 14th playoff game, also without a miss). Presuming he is back next season, Weeks (who turns 39 next month) can crack the top five list of most consecutive games played in NFL history by answering the bell in the first 12 regular season games.
*The Texans’ three early TDS in the 51-31 loss at KC: 1. Kenny Stills a 54-yard reception 2. Lonnie Johnson with a 10-yard return of a blocked punt 3. Darren Fells with a four-yard grab
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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