THE PALLILOG

Astros have at least 3 strong reasons for a no-brainer decision at key position

Astros have at least 3 strong reasons for a no-brainer decision at key position
The Astros' rotation is strong enough as is. Composite image by Brandon Strange.

So, are you more of a glass half-full person or more of a glass half-empty person? For the optimistic glass half-full membership: Only six more weeks until spring training opens! For the pessimistic glass half-empty crowd: Ugh. Six more weeks until spring training opens! Even with the Texans wrapping up a third straight pathetic season this weekend and the Rockets in the midst of their third straight pathetic season, the optimists have it right. Especially after the sturm and drang of a year ago when everything was delayed by collective bargaining negotiations.

We are in the midst of the generally quietest stretch of the offseason. Most of the heavy lifting of free agency is done (the Carlos Correa saga notwithstanding), and while there is certainly still the possibility of a blockbuster trade or two in the next month and change, most clubs pretty much have the makings of their 2023 rosters in place. The Astros are the American League favorites as is, making it that much more eyebrow raising that somehow they’ve been mentioned among teams as a possible landing spot for pitcher Trevor Bauer should the Dodgers cut ties with him. Of course, anyone can chuck anything against the wall these days. Never say never but I’d be stunned if the Astros signed Trevor Bauer.

Bauer has been reinstated after serving a 194 game suspension over sexual assault allegations. The lurid details that made it to the public domain were quite disturbing. Bauer was never charged with a crime, not that that is proof of innocence. The Dodgers have a Friday deadline to reinstate Bauer to their roster or release him. Either way they will owe him 22 million dollars for the coming season.

Bauer last pitched in a game June 28 2021. He was having an excellent season for the Dodgers after winning the National League Cy Young Award as a Cincinnati Red in the 2020 60 game COVID season. Bauer turns 32 years old in a couple of weeks. His talent is unquestioned. It’s not like he missed the last season and a half because of Tommy John surgery or a torn rotator cuff. The argument for signing him would be “Talent wins. You can never have enough pitching. Bauer served his punishment and is eligible to play for any team.” The argument against signing him would be “Isn’t it obvious?”

Astros’ fans should refrain from any “My team would never sign a guy like Bauer” sanctimoniousness. Jim Crane certainly signed off on the Astros’ 2018 trade for pitcher Roberto Osuna. Then General Manager Jeff Luhnow made the deal acquiring a “distressed asset” with the Toronto Blue Jays wanting nothing more to do with Osuna after a 75 game suspension that Osuna accepted for violating Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy. A suspension over which the Players Association filed no grievance (in contrast to Bauer’s case). Osuna blew out his arm in 2020 and the Astros non-tendered him. He pitched 2021 in Mexico and began the 2022 season there before going to the Japan League’s Chiba Lotte Marines. Osuna excelled in both Mexico and Japan, still hasn’t turned 28 years old, and no Major League team has touched him.

I’m not saying in absolute terms that no one should sign Trevor Bauer, but the Houston Astros should not. With Justin Verlander gone, Cristian Javier yet to start for a full season, and Lance McCullers often seeming an injury waiting to happen, yes the Astros’ outstanding starting pitching depth could fray. But presently they have Javier, McCullers, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, and Jose Uruidy, with top prospect Hunter Brown pounding on the door to join the rotation. In purely baseball terms, signing Bauer would make sense if the Astros had a move ready including, say, Garcia, in a trade to the Pirates for centerfielder Bryan Reynolds. Signing Bauer would not be a purely baseball decision. Pass. If he was to sign with the Angels or Rangers, flourish, and help one of those teams contend with the Astros in the AL West, so be it.

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Gerrit Cole and Hunter Brown share the same agent now. Composite Getty Image.

There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.

Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.

The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.

But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.

The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.

Astros pitcher hires a new agent

Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.

But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.

With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.

However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.

Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).

Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.

I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.

There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?

Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.

If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.

One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.

Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.

It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.

The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.

Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?

After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.

And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.

So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.

Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.

Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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