THE PALLILOG
How mounting evidence suggests early Astros struggles are more slump than signal
Apr 4, 2025, 12:31 pm
Christian Walker blasted his first homer of the season on Thursday. Composite Getty Image.
The overreaction to the Astros’ miserable first week of offense was amusing. Yes they were pathetic, but the instant verdict from more than a few that it’s a horrific lineup, come on now! It’s definitely not a great lineup, and it pales in comparison to multiple others during the Astros’ run over the last eight years. That’s a long way from horrific. For six games, it was horrific. Not once did the Astros manage to score more than three runs. Last season, as they were stumblebums in suffering through a 12-24 start, the Astros never failed to reach four runs in more than four games in a row. In fact, all season they never had five straight games scoring three or fewer runs. So, perhaps their very worst for 2025 is already out of the way. The 1906 “Hitless Wonders” Chicago White Sox had the worst team batting average in the American League. And won the World Series!
By resume, the Astros lineup should be solid one through five, shaky six through nine. Well, the solid end has largely stunk so far. Except for the double he mashed to plate the game-winning run in a win over the Mets, Yordan Alvarez has looked awful so far. Very few good swings much less good results. Alvarez is three for 24 for a .125 batting average. But only silly people would be worried that at 27 years old he has suddenly tumbled over the hill. Christian Walker is batting .185. Isaac Paredes is batting .130. So is Jeremy Pena. Yainer Diaz is at .111. None of that is going to continue. For much longer anyway. We can add in that Cam Smith is two for 14 (.143). Once the regular season starts batters don’t face a diet of largely double-A minor league level pitching. Cam has a learning curve to navigate. We’ll see if all of it is with the Astros or if at some point a little more minor league seasoning is in the cards.
Jose Altuve striking out in all five of his at bats Thursday was something. A five K game was unprecedented in his career. Only twice previously had he struck out four times in a game. Altuve in 2024 shattered his career high for strikeouts in a season with 119, 28 more than his next worst total. He’s also batting .321 through the first seven games.
The Astros enter the weekend with a team batting average of .191. Check out the rest of the American League West (Worst?) thus far. The Seattle Mariners’ team average is .172. The Texas Rangers sit at .192. The Los Angeles Angels are also sub-Mendoza Line at .198. The Athletics lead the way with an underwhelming .219 mark. There’s a lot of woeful offense to be found in the early season. While the Astros’ lackluster output bears watching, it should not yet be inducing panic.
High heat
The Astros’ starting rotation is the strength of the team. It’s just two starts in but Hunter Brown is building toward genuine ace status. After his miserable start to 2024 that with better available depth could have seen Brown demoted to the minors, over his last 23 starts Brown pitched to a 2.48 earned run average. The Tigers’ Tarik Skubal was the rightful unanimous American League Cy Young Award winner with a 2.39 ERA.
If an Astro pitcher is to throw a no-hitter this season Brown would seem the best bet. Cristian Javier and the bullpen combined on one in 2022 at the Yankees (the postseason is a separate category so the World Series no-hitter Javier started in Philadelphia is excluded). Framber Valdez no-hit the Guardians in 2023. Ronel Blanco got the Blue Jays last year. None of that makes another likely this year, but should Brown or any other pitcher (or pitchers) throw a no-hitter this season, the Astros would become just the second franchise ever to throw a no-hitter in four consecutive seasons. The Dodgers pitched a no-hitter in each of 1962, ‘63, ‘64, and ‘65. Sandy Koufax threw all four of them, and as a cherry on the sundae the last of the four was a perfect game.
Dress to impress
Two other quick opening homestand observations. The new City Connect uniforms are fabulous. A matter of personal taste of course, but I think they're a huge upgrade. The NASA-style font on the previous ones names and numbers was excellent, but I thought the all-dark blue looked a bit like pajamas.
Annoying tacked on fees aside, the Astros had a fabulous offer available where you could get a standing room ticket for 12 home games through the end of April for just 99 dollars. The come on said “for as low as $69!” but that excluded fees. Nevertheless, that was just $8.25 per game. Phenomenal value. Now they have introduced a Wednesday “your first drink is on us!” promotion for three upper deck sections. Cool. Also indicative of ticket sales not going fantastically. Wednesday’s announced attendance (the announced attendance is tickets distributed, not people through the doors) was the lowest for an Astros’ home game since June of 2022.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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The Houston Texans continue to build one of the NFL’s most intriguing wide receiver rooms — and according to Yahoo Sports analyst Matt Harmon, their new rookie additions bring more than just depth. Harmon offered insight into how the Texans might creatively deploy second-round pick Jayden Higgins and third-rounder Jaylin Noel, two players with contrasting skill sets who could carve out meaningful roles in Nick Caley's (formerly with the Rams) offense.
At first glance, Higgins fits the traditional mold of an outside receiver. At 6-foot-4 and 214 pounds, he lined up mostly as an X receiver in college and looked the part physically. But Harmon suggests that Higgins might actually be a better fit as a power slot — a big-bodied interior option who can do damage against zone coverage, similar to how the Rams used Cooper Kupp in his prime.
That role makes sense in Houston. The Texans already have one of the league’s premier outside receivers in Nico Collins, and there’s no pressure to force Higgins into a role that doesn’t maximize his skill set. According to data from Reception Perception, Higgins struggled against tight coverage in college, finishing in just the 15th percentile in success rate versus man and 16th percentile versus press. Letting Higgins attack softer coverages from the slot could be the key to unlocking his full potential.
Still, Higgins might not even be the most impactful rookie receiver the Texans landed.
While Higgins came in with the size and profile of a prototypical NFL wideout, Noel quietly outproduced him in 2024 at Iowa State and was quite often more feared by opponents. Noel’s game is built around separation and quickness — and despite being under six feet tall, there's confidence that he can play both inside and outside at the pro level. His 74.1 percent success rate versus man coverage speaks to his advanced route-running, which could earn him early targets in Houston’s pass-heavy scheme.
With Collins, Christian Kirk, Higgins, and Noel, the Texans suddenly have a flexible, matchup-proof receiving group that can attack every level of the field. If C.J. Stroud takes another step in year three, this offense could become even more dangerous — with its rookie receivers helping push it over the top.
Be sure to check out the video below to watch Harmon's full breakdown of the Texans receivers, and much more!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!