THE PALLILOG
How mounting evidence suggests early Astros struggles are more slump than signal
Apr 4, 2025, 12:31 pm
Christian Walker blasted his first homer of the season on Thursday. Composite Getty Image.
The overreaction to the Astros’ miserable first week of offense was amusing. Yes they were pathetic, but the instant verdict from more than a few that it’s a horrific lineup, come on now! It’s definitely not a great lineup, and it pales in comparison to multiple others during the Astros’ run over the last eight years. That’s a long way from horrific. For six games, it was horrific. Not once did the Astros manage to score more than three runs. Last season, as they were stumblebums in suffering through a 12-24 start, the Astros never failed to reach four runs in more than four games in a row. In fact, all season they never had five straight games scoring three or fewer runs. So, perhaps their very worst for 2025 is already out of the way. The 1906 “Hitless Wonders” Chicago White Sox had the worst team batting average in the American League. And won the World Series!
By resume, the Astros lineup should be solid one through five, shaky six through nine. Well, the solid end has largely stunk so far. Except for the double he mashed to plate the game-winning run in a win over the Mets, Yordan Alvarez has looked awful so far. Very few good swings much less good results. Alvarez is three for 24 for a .125 batting average. But only silly people would be worried that at 27 years old he has suddenly tumbled over the hill. Christian Walker is batting .185. Isaac Paredes is batting .130. So is Jeremy Pena. Yainer Diaz is at .111. None of that is going to continue. For much longer anyway. We can add in that Cam Smith is two for 14 (.143). Once the regular season starts batters don’t face a diet of largely double-A minor league level pitching. Cam has a learning curve to navigate. We’ll see if all of it is with the Astros or if at some point a little more minor league seasoning is in the cards.
Jose Altuve striking out in all five of his at bats Thursday was something. A five K game was unprecedented in his career. Only twice previously had he struck out four times in a game. Altuve in 2024 shattered his career high for strikeouts in a season with 119, 28 more than his next worst total. He’s also batting .321 through the first seven games.
The Astros enter the weekend with a team batting average of .191. Check out the rest of the American League West (Worst?) thus far. The Seattle Mariners’ team average is .172. The Texas Rangers sit at .192. The Los Angeles Angels are also sub-Mendoza Line at .198. The Athletics lead the way with an underwhelming .219 mark. There’s a lot of woeful offense to be found in the early season. While the Astros’ lackluster output bears watching, it should not yet be inducing panic.
High heat
The Astros’ starting rotation is the strength of the team. It’s just two starts in but Hunter Brown is building toward genuine ace status. After his miserable start to 2024 that with better available depth could have seen Brown demoted to the minors, over his last 23 starts Brown pitched to a 2.48 earned run average. The Tigers’ Tarik Skubal was the rightful unanimous American League Cy Young Award winner with a 2.39 ERA.
If an Astro pitcher is to throw a no-hitter this season Brown would seem the best bet. Cristian Javier and the bullpen combined on one in 2022 at the Yankees (the postseason is a separate category so the World Series no-hitter Javier started in Philadelphia is excluded). Framber Valdez no-hit the Guardians in 2023. Ronel Blanco got the Blue Jays last year. None of that makes another likely this year, but should Brown or any other pitcher (or pitchers) throw a no-hitter this season, the Astros would become just the second franchise ever to throw a no-hitter in four consecutive seasons. The Dodgers pitched a no-hitter in each of 1962, ‘63, ‘64, and ‘65. Sandy Koufax threw all four of them, and as a cherry on the sundae the last of the four was a perfect game.
Dress to impress
Two other quick opening homestand observations. The new City Connect uniforms are fabulous. A matter of personal taste of course, but I think they're a huge upgrade. The NASA-style font on the previous ones names and numbers was excellent, but I thought the all-dark blue looked a bit like pajamas.
Annoying tacked on fees aside, the Astros had a fabulous offer available where you could get a standing room ticket for 12 home games through the end of April for just 99 dollars. The come on said “for as low as $69!” but that excluded fees. Nevertheless, that was just $8.25 per game. Phenomenal value. Now they have introduced a Wednesday “your first drink is on us!” promotion for three upper deck sections. Cool. Also indicative of ticket sales not going fantastically. Wednesday’s announced attendance (the announced attendance is tickets distributed, not people through the doors) was the lowest for an Astros’ home game since June of 2022.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!
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Cross your fingers that Isaac Paredes’s hamstring tweak Thursday night is only a tweak. The Astros’ mediocre lineup would absorb a hard blow if Paredes winds up heading to the Injured List. But don’t worry, is there any doubt the Astros’ medical staff has it handled? Paredes has been excellent, a better player than was 2024 Alex Bregman. If he is to miss some time with the sore hammy, that will hurt Paredes’s “on pace for” numbers, but his 15th home run of the season Thursday has him on pace for 35, his 42nd run batted in has him on pace for 98. Reminder that Paredes is making $6,625,000 this season versus Bregman’s 40 million. The Astros sure hope that Paredes doesn’t wind up joining Bregman on the IL.
Follow the money
Never blame a player for grabbing every last dollar he can. However, when taking more money to join a clearly lesser organization, one loses the ability to honestly say, “winning is the most important thing to me.” It’s no sin if winning isn’t absolute priority one. It’s a life choice and business decision. Hello Carlos Correa.
The Astros host the Minnesota Twins at Daikin Park this weekend. Correa is now in his fourth season with the Twins. If his level of play doesn’t pick up, it will be the worst season of his career. Correa is in the third year of the six-year 200 million dollar contract he signed with Minnesota after exercising his opt out clause following the first year of the three-year deal he initially inked with the Twins. In total he has seven years with and 235 million dollars coming from the Twins. When Correa first hit free agency the Astros final offer to keep him was a very reasonable five years and 160 million dollars. If Correa had re-upped with the Astros, he’d have become a free agent after next season. No way would he then have gotten 75 million over two years to match the total haul of 235 over seven he bagged.
Financially, Correa played it correctly. But is he having the same fun playing home games in Minneapolis where the Twins are averaging barely over 20,000 per game in announced attendance, versus the Astros who are announcing about 32,000 per? Correa has played in the postseason once in the three years, and the Astros eliminated him, while the Astros have been in every year. The Twins start the series here this weekend with a record only a game and a half behind the Astros, but while the Astros lead the weak American League West by four and a half games, the Twins about need a telescope to see the Detroit Tigers eight games in front of them in the AL Central. The AL West is the only of the six divisions in Major League Baseball that has just one team with a winning record.
Correa turns 31 years old September 22, the same day Jeremy Pena turns 28. Correa is making over 37 million dollars this season. The Astros are paying Pena four-point-four mil. Over 2026 and 2027 Correa will pull down nearly 65 mil. Over those same two seasons, the Astros will likely pay Pena a total of between 20 and 25 million. Last season Correa was a significantly better player than Pena, except that Carlos played only 86 games. This year Pena has made a quantum leap and is playing like a superstar, while Correa’s game has eroded. Fun factoids: Pena stole his 14th base of the season Wednesday. Correa’s last stolen base came in 2019. To be fair, speed was never a signature of Correa's game.
Double trouble
In 1948 the Boston Braves had a tandem of starting pitching aces in future Hall of Famer Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain. The rest of the rotation was a bit shaky. Boston sportswriter Gerald Hearn wrote “First we’ll use Spahn, then we’ll use Sain, then an off day followed by rain. Back will come Spahn, followed by Sain, and followed we hope by two days rain.” Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez are the Spahn and Sain of the 2025 Astros. Brown has been marvelous all season, Valdez has a 2.02 earned run average over his last seven starts. I leave Brown/Valdez poetry to you.
Spahn is among the handful of greatest left-handed pitchers in history. He debuted in 1942 and pitched in four games, before serving in World War II that took him out of the 1943, ‘44, and ‘45 seasons. Spahn logged his first big league win in 1946 when he was 25 years old. He’d win 362 more and will never be caught for the honor of most wins by a lefty in big league history. As a 42-year-old Spahn went 23-7 and threw 22 complete games. When men were men! It was the 13th time in Spahn’s career that he was a 20-game winner.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
_____________________________________________
*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!