THE PALLILOG
How mounting evidence suggests early Astros struggles are more slump than signal
Apr 4, 2025, 12:31 pm
THE PALLILOG
The overreaction to the Astros’ miserable first week of offense was amusing. Yes they were pathetic, but the instant verdict from more than a few that it’s a horrific lineup, come on now! It’s definitely not a great lineup, and it pales in comparison to multiple others during the Astros’ run over the last eight years. That’s a long way from horrific. For six games, it was horrific. Not once did the Astros manage to score more than three runs. Last season, as they were stumblebums in suffering through a 12-24 start, the Astros never failed to reach four runs in more than four games in a row. In fact, all season they never had five straight games scoring three or fewer runs. So, perhaps their very worst for 2025 is already out of the way. The 1906 “Hitless Wonders” Chicago White Sox had the worst team batting average in the American League. And won the World Series!
By resume, the Astros lineup should be solid one through five, shaky six through nine. Well, the solid end has largely stunk so far. Except for the double he mashed to plate the game-winning run in a win over the Mets, Yordan Alvarez has looked awful so far. Very few good swings much less good results. Alvarez is three for 24 for a .125 batting average. But only silly people would be worried that at 27 years old he has suddenly tumbled over the hill. Christian Walker is batting .185. Isaac Paredes is batting .130. So is Jeremy Pena. Yainer Diaz is at .111. None of that is going to continue. For much longer anyway. We can add in that Cam Smith is two for 14 (.143). Once the regular season starts batters don’t face a diet of largely double-A minor league level pitching. Cam has a learning curve to navigate. We’ll see if all of it is with the Astros or if at some point a little more minor league seasoning is in the cards.
Jose Altuve striking out in all five of his at bats Thursday was something. A five K game was unprecedented in his career. Only twice previously had he struck out four times in a game. Altuve in 2024 shattered his career high for strikeouts in a season with 119, 28 more than his next worst total. He’s also batting .321 through the first seven games.
The Astros enter the weekend with a team batting average of .191. Check out the rest of the American League West (Worst?) thus far. The Seattle Mariners’ team average is .172. The Texas Rangers sit at .192. The Los Angeles Angels are also sub-Mendoza Line at .198. The Athletics lead the way with an underwhelming .219 mark. There’s a lot of woeful offense to be found in the early season. While the Astros’ lackluster output bears watching, it should not yet be inducing panic.
High heat
The Astros’ starting rotation is the strength of the team. It’s just two starts in but Hunter Brown is building toward genuine ace status. After his miserable start to 2024 that with better available depth could have seen Brown demoted to the minors, over his last 23 starts Brown pitched to a 2.48 earned run average. The Tigers’ Tarik Skubal was the rightful unanimous American League Cy Young Award winner with a 2.39 ERA.
If an Astro pitcher is to throw a no-hitter this season Brown would seem the best bet. Cristian Javier and the bullpen combined on one in 2022 at the Yankees (the postseason is a separate category so the World Series no-hitter Javier started in Philadelphia is excluded). Framber Valdez no-hit the Guardians in 2023. Ronel Blanco got the Blue Jays last year. None of that makes another likely this year, but should Brown or any other pitcher (or pitchers) throw a no-hitter this season, the Astros would become just the second franchise ever to throw a no-hitter in four consecutive seasons. The Dodgers pitched a no-hitter in each of 1962, ‘63, ‘64, and ‘65. Sandy Koufax threw all four of them, and as a cherry on the sundae the last of the four was a perfect game.
Dress to impress
Two other quick opening homestand observations. The new City Connect uniforms are fabulous. A matter of personal taste of course, but I think they're a huge upgrade. The NASA-style font on the previous ones names and numbers was excellent, but I thought the all-dark blue looked a bit like pajamas.
Annoying tacked on fees aside, the Astros had a fabulous offer available where you could get a standing room ticket for 12 home games through the end of April for just 99 dollars. The come on said “for as low as $69!” but that excluded fees. Nevertheless, that was just $8.25 per game. Phenomenal value. Now they have introduced a Wednesday “your first drink is on us!” promotion for three upper deck sections. Cool. Also indicative of ticket sales not going fantastically. Wednesday’s announced attendance (the announced attendance is tickets distributed, not people through the doors) was the lowest for an Astros’ home game since June of 2022.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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The Houston Texans have a chance to win a third straight AFC South title this season with quarterback C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans.
The challenge?
Nobody has won three straight titles since Peyton Manning was in his prime with the Indianapolis Colts in this division’s early years. The Tennessee Titans most recently came the closest only to come up short in 2022.
“I’m not really sure like what the next step is,” Houston general manager Nick Caserio said. “I mean we have a good football team, so we’ve been one of the best eight teams in the league the last two years. So what’s going to happen beyond that nobody has any idea.”
The Texans have advanced to two straight divisional rounds each of the past two postseasons, losing both with the most recent to Kansas City 23-14 in January. Caserio made a variety of moves to help Stroud, and coach DeMeco Ryans switched offensive coordinators as well.
Houston tight end Dalton Schultz said they just have to do one thing to get past the divisional round.
“It’s never the same as the year before, and there’s always some little wrinkle that is going to hit the league or hit your team,” Schultz said.
Houston went 10-7 in 2024 with the Colts at 8-9 with everyone working furiously to catch up — or else.
Indianapolis switched starting quarterbacks. Jacksonville hired a new coach and general manager before trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. Tennessee has No. 1 draft pick overall in Cam Ward starting at quarterback after firing and hiring a new general manager.
“This league is a year-to-year league and what do I feel is best for the Colts in 2025,” Colts coach Shane Steichen said.
Houston has to protect Stroud better. Only Chicago’s Caleb Williams was sacked more than the 2024 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. With the pounding, Stroud’s production dipped as he was sacked 52 times with his interceptions more than doubling to 12 from his rookie season.
Stroud still threw for 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns. Ryans fired Bobby Slowik and hired Nick Caley as offensive coordinator.
“He comes from a different style than I’m used to, at least in the NFL,” Stroud said of Caley. “So, it’s cool just to learn something new and put another tool in my toolbox.”
Caserio traded five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington during the offseason to clear space to sign younger players. The Texans are expected to start a rookie at left tackle in second-round pick Aireontae Ersery with Tytus Howard at right tackle where he started 16 games last season.
Houston also acquired Christian Kirk, signed Justin Watson and drafted a pair of receivers out of Iowa State to provide depth behind Nico Collins after letting Stefon Diggs leave in free agency. Caserio also sent wide receiver John Metchie to Philadelphia for tight end Harrison Bryant on Aug. 17.
Indianapolis has missed the playoffs the past four seasons, and a fifth straight could cost Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard their jobs with the late Jim Irsay’s daughters now running the franchise.
Going with Daniel Jones means the franchise who went two decades with Manning and Andrew Luck at quarterback will have yet another starter on opening day. Since 2017, only Anthony Richardson has started back-to-back season openers.
Yet the fourth overall pick in 2023 couldn’t stay healthy or help Jonathan Taylor nearly enough. Taylor ran for 1,431 yards and 11 TDs as Richardson completed just 47.7% of his throws, the lowest rate of any regular starter in the NFL.
Steichen said Richardson, 23, was thrown into the fire. The Colts coach isn’t ready to talk about Jones’ future.
“Let’s see how the season goes,” Steichen said.
The biggest makeover came in Jacksonville, firing a Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson and GM Trent Baalke. The Jaguars hired Liam Coen as coach and James Gladstone, 34, as their new GM.
The Jaguars are trying to fix a team that went 3-10 in one-score games in 2024 with the franchise losers of 18 of its past 23.
In his first head coaching job, Coen, 39, has a pair of first-timers in offensive coordinator Grant Udinski and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. As coordinator in Tampa Bay, Coen became the first NFL coordinator in at least 25 years to help a team average more than 28 points a game.
He has Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, who was limited by injuries to 10 games in 2024. Wide receiver Brian Thomas now can get help from Hunter, even if the rookie will also play some defense.
Brian Callahan also was a first-time head coach a year ago with the Titans. He brought in a former NFL head coach in Mike McCoy this offseason among a handful of other changes to apply his lessons learned.
Mike Borgonzi was hired as GM when Ran Carthon’s big offseason spending spree didn’t pan out. The Titans have embraced their rebuild even if they added veteran receivers Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson along with left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard Kevin Zeitler.
Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville.