THE PALLILOG

How events this week have major franchise-defining impacts for Astros

Astros Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena
Good news for Jose Altuve. Photo by Harry How/Getty Images.
Here's why MLB struggles to replicate Houston Astros winning formula

One never knows how things will play out but of the known General Manager candidates, Jim Crane nailed it in hiring Dana Brown out of the Atlanta Braves' organization where he was Vice President of Scouting. The 55-year-old Brown's scouting and development pedigree is stellar. The Braves have been a talent-producing machine in recent years. Obviously all the credit isn't Brown's but his four years with the Braves preceded by a productive pipeline he was part of in Toronto speak highly of him. Not that it was or should have been the guiding principle to Crane's decision-making, but the Astros now have the only African-American General Manager in Major League Baseball (Ken Williams is Executive Vice President of the Chicago White Sox).

Brad Ausmus is a super-smart guy, but if had he gotten the GM gig it would have been in large part because he was teammate besties with Jeff Bagwell. While “It's not what you know it's who you know” plays a role in many, many hires, it would have been a poor rationale for tabbing Ausmus. Maybe Ausmus would have done a great job. Maybe Brown does a lousy job. Brown was the much more strongly credentialed candidate. While Bagwell has moved way up Crane's confidante list, Brown played college baseball with Craig Biggio at Seton Hall.

Speaking of Halls…

If I could tell you as absolute fact that exactly two members of the 2023 Houston Astros will someday make the Baseball Hall of Fame, who are you picking? Jose Altuve isn’t a lock just yet but he is obvious pick number one. So for the second spot are you going with Alex Bregman or Yordan Alvarez? We’ll get back to this a couple of paragraphs down.

As was basically a given, former Astro (and Phillie, Met, Red Sox, and Brave) Billy Wagner was not elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame this week, but as I suggested last week the voting returns were very favorable toward Wagner making the Hall next year, or if not next year in his final year of eligibility on the Baseball Writers Association ballot for the Class of 2025. “Wags” in the Class of ’24 is looking good. Wagner jumped from 51 percent to 68 percent “put him in” votes. The only guy this year to get the necessary 75 percent for election is worthy third baseman Scott Rolen. Two years ago Rolen got 53 percent of the votes needed, last year 63 percent, before getting the call to Cooperstown with 76.5 percent this year. Wagner going from 51 to 68 to 75-plus looks likely. Of course it’s not as if Wagner can pad his case with a good 2023 season, but this is how the process works. The other ballot returnee well positioned to make it next year is former Colorado first baseman Todd Helton. Unlike this year there’s a sure-fire first time ballot guy going in next year. Third baseman Adrian Beltre will undoubtedly wear a Texas Rangers cap on his plaque.

As expected Carlos Beltran didn’t come close to election in his first year of eligibility, but drawing 46 percent of the votes sets him up well to eventually get the Cooperstown call. Beltran was a fabulous player and his Hall credentials are solid. However, no one reasonable would argue that Carlos Beltran was as good or better than Barry Bonds. In his first year of eligibility back in 2013 Bonds garnered 36 percent of the vote. There has been some turnover in the voter pool over the last decade, but it's clear that Beltran’s central role in the Astros’ sign stealing scheme was not held against him to the extent that PED use (actual and/or suspected) was held against Bonds and Roger Clemens. And Alex Rodriguez. And Sammy Sosa. And Manny Ramirez. And others. Foremost right now that’s encouraging for Beltran, but it’s also encouraging down the line for fellow Astros of 2017-18.

What does this mean for Jose Altuve?

If Jose Altuve retired today (perish the thought!) he’d have a good case for the Hall. He had superstar seasons in 2016, 2017, and 2022, and has five other seasons that while not in the realm of his three best certainly rate as excellent. If you judge a player by his five best seasons, there aren’t 10 second basemen in the history of the sport who’d rank ahead of Altuve. Among those who clearly would: Joe Morgan, Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, and Nap Lajoie. Among those four only Morgan played more recently than 1937. Then there’s a group of arguable guys like Jackie Robinson, Ryne Sandberg, Roberto Alomar, and yes Craig Biggio. Altuve has had the prime of a Hall of Famer. What sort of final numbers will he accrue? In late May or early June he should reach the 2000 hit plateau. How many more prime years does Altuve have left before inevitable decline? His career batting average is .307. Four years ago it was .316. Will Altuve retire a .300 hitter?

Bregman or Alvarez? Bregman gets extra points for being an everyday third baseman as opposed to a left fielder-designated hitter, but by age alone Yordan is the better play. Bregman turns 29 on opening day this year. Yordan doesn’t turn 26 until late June. When Bregman was 25 (2019 season) he put up a season more valuable than Alvarez’s tremendous 2022. In the three years since Bregman hasn’t approached that level, though his big second half last season could be a springboard back to that stratosphere. Yordan is in that stratosphere and figures to stay there for a while if his health holds up.

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Will the Texans get back on track against the Colts? Composite Getty Image.

This week, the Houston Texans take on the Colts in a matchup with division supremacy on the line. If the Texans are able to come away with a victory, they will own the tiebreaker over Indy and enjoy a comfortable lead in the division.

However, a loss to the Colts means the Texans will be in a virtual tie with Indy in the AFC South. So what do the Texans need to do to secure a win?

On offense, they'll have to do a much better job of protecting CJ Stroud. In their last game against the Packers, Stroud faced immense pressure on third downs, with 12 of his 14 dropbacks resulting in pressure.

During one series, Stroud was flushed from the pocket and forced to scramble on three straight plays. They have to clean up the protection, or it will be another long day for the offense.

Fortunately for the Texans, this game is at home. So hopefully the communication issues the Texans o-line dealt with on the road last week won't be an issue at NRG.

Rushing attack

Houston can't afford to rely solely on Joe Mixon and the run game to carry the offense. While Mixon has been terrific, contributing significantly in recent weeks, the Texans will need a balanced attack. Which means Stroud must have time to operate in the pocket.

Bulls on parade

The defense last week was another story for the Texans. They played well against Green Bay, limiting them to 24 points. This week, they face a very different type of quarterback. Anthony Richardson is dead last in passer rating and completion percentage, so that's definitely working in their favor.

We know what Richardson can do with his legs, and Indy is expecting running back Jonathan Taylor to return from an ankle injury, so the rushing defense will be tested.

Richardson's accuracy is certainly a weakness, but he does throw a good deep ball that gave the defense problems in Week 1 this season.

What does Vegas think?

The Texans are favored by 5 points and the total is set at 45.5 points.

This is one video you don't want to miss as we share our in-depth breakdown of the game, as well as our predictions for Sunday's contest.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

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Fans of Houston sports and Houston food can now score tickets to The Tailgate, CultureMap's all-out party devoted to everyone’s favorite way to get in the gameday spirit. The event, presented by Verizon, goes down from 6-9 pm November 11 at 8th Wonder. Find out more about it here.

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