WHAT ARE THE ODDS?
What the latest odds reveal about Houston Astros World Series aspirations
Jun 16, 2023, 9:55 am
The Astros could be a value. Composite Getty Image.
Houston exhales: Astros make easiest offseason move yet
If you watch the small print of scores and news at the bottom of the screen during ESPN SportsCenter or their talk shows with Kendrick Perkins and Dan Orlovsky appearing on 15 different programs the same day, you may have noticed an important change this week.
For the first time all baseball season, the Houston Astros are not the betting favorite to win the 2023 World Series.
Of course there are reasons for downgrading the Astros stock – their inability to catch and release the Texas Rangers, plus injuries to key players like Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley and Lance McCullers Jr.
Still, seeing the Astros fall behind the Atlanta Braves as top betting choice to win the Fall Classic brought it home that the Astros’ slip may be showing.
The same day the Astros dropped as betting favorite, the ESPN news notes said, “Astros pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. has surgery, out for the season, hasn’t pitched in 2023,” and “Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez out for four weeks with oblique strain.”
As of today, the Braves are the favorite, +450 to win it all, meaning you’ll win $450 if you plunk down $100 on Atlanta. The Dodgers are +500 and the Rays sit at +550, while the Astros are +700. The Rays are baseball’s biggest surprise so far – they were +2,200 on Opening Day. They’re currently in first place in the American League East with a MLB best 50-22 record.
Curiously, and we have no problem with this, bettors have little confidence in the AL West-leading Rangers, sitting 3.5 games ahead of the Astros. Despite their early success, the Rangers currently are +1,400 longshots to win the World Series.
My soul won’t allow me to bet on, and therefore root for the Rangers, but as those tout sheet wiseguys would say, there’s value there. Or as Cosmo Kramer would put it, “that’s some sweet action.”
While injuries continue to plague the Astros, bettors still hold them in decent regard at +700.
Are the Astros a good gamble? The odds are against them repeating as champions. But there’s one guy who’s keeping the faith. Jim McIngvale is putting his money and Sealy Posturepedics on the Astros again.
Let’s turn back the clock one year. You could say that Mattress Mack had some pretty good fortune backing the locals in 2022.
In May, Mack bet $3 million on the Astros at +1,000. He made the bet on the Caesars Sportsbook app while sitting in a Subway parking lot just over the border into Louisiana. It’s stupefyingly stupid that Texans have to do that if they want to bet on sports legally. In July, when the odds on the Astros fell to +500, Mack doubled down with a $2 million wager on BetMGM, $2 million at Barstool Sportsbook (“one bite, everybody knows the rules.” and $1 million each at Wynn, Unibet and Betfred.
The Astros won it all and Mack backed up his truck to collect $75 million – a historic one-day haul in sports gambling.
The Astros have been a good bet since their wild rollercoaster ride began in 2017. They opened that season as +1,500 longshots, behind the Giants (+1,400), Nationals (+1,000), Dodgers (+900), Red Sox (+900), Indians (+450), and this surprised me, the betting favorite Cubs (+400).
Bottom line, and really that’s all that counts, if you had bet $1,000 on the Astros at the beginning of each season 2017-22, you would have won $26,000 minus your initial investment and losing wagers in 2018-19-20-21, for about a $20,000 windfall. And for one person, minus refunds on all those mattresses.
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How these 3 critical factors could swing battle between Texans and Jets
Oct 30, 2024, 3:06 pm
The Jets host the Texans and their scary defense on Halloween night! Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.
Houston (6-2) at New York Jets (2-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. EDT, Amazon Prime
BetMGM NFL odds: Jets by 2.
Against the spread: Texans 3-4-1; Jets 2-6.
Series record: Jets lead 7-3.
Last meeting: Jets beat Texans 30-6 in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on Dec. 10, 2023.
Last week: Texans beat Colts 23-20; Jets lost to Patriots 25-22.
Texans offense: overall (9t), rush (18), pass (8), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (13), pass (3), scoring (15t).
Jets offense: overall (24), rush (30), pass (13), scoring (25).
Jets defense: overall (4), rush (17), pass (2), scoring (11t).
Turnover differential: Texans plus-4; Jets minus-3.
Texans player to watch
RB Joe Mixon. He has carried Houston's offense in the three games since he returned from an injury and could be even more important this week after wide receiver Stefon Diggs tore the ACL in his right knee last Sunday and is out for the season. Mixon ranks third in the NFL by averaging 100.6 yards rushing a game and has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD run in three straight games.
Jets player to watch
Edge rusher Haason Reddick. After ending his lengthy contract holdout early last week, Reddick made his Jets debut and played 26 snaps on defense with two quarterback pressures while working mostly on third downs. His snaps might increase a bit Thursday and he could help the Jets get after C.J. Stroud, who has been sacked 22 times this season — tied for third most in the NFL.
Key matchup
Jets offensive line vs. Texans' pass rush. New York has had issues this season with injuries, consistency and protecting Aaron Rodgers. The Jets will face a tough test Thursday night against the Texans, whose 27 sacks are third in the NFL. DE Will Anderson Jr. is tied for third in the league with a career-high 7 1/2 sacks, including at least one in his past three games. DE Danielle Hunter has 5 1/2 sacks and DT Tim Settle has four, powering a formidable defensive front for Houston. Hunter leads the league with 51 quarterback pressures and Anderson is fourth with 39, the only teammates in the top 15, according to Next Gen Stats.
Key injuries
Diggs' injury leaves Houston without its top two receivers. Nico Collins, who leads the Texans with 567 yards receiving, is out for at least one more game after being placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. ... S Calen Bullock was limited in practice Monday and Tuesday after injuring his shoulder Sunday. … LBs Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) both missed the Colts game, but could return this week. … S Jimmie Ward could miss a fifth straight game with a groin injury. … LG Jarrett Patterson is in the concussion protocol and is likely out. … RB Dameon Pierce missed practice this week with a groin injury. ... Jets LB C.J. Mosley suffered a stinger in his neck during pregame warmups at New England and was meeting with neck and spine specialists this week. ... RG Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle), WR Allen Lazard (chest), DL Leki Fotu (knee) and safeties Tony Adams (hamstring) and Ashtyn Davis (concussion) all missed the game vs. the Patriots and their availability for this week was uncertain. ... K Greg Zuerlein was placed on IR. Riley Patterson and Spencer Shrader were signed to the practice squad, and one will be promoted for the game.
Series notes
The Jets have won the past two meetings. ... New York won the first five meetings, including the first game between the franchises in 2003, when LaMont Jordan's late 8-yard touchdown run helped lift the Jets to a 19-14 victory. ... Zach Wilson threw two touchdown passes in the most recent meeting, a 30-6 rout by New York during which Stroud left with a concussion.
Stats and stuff
The AFC South-leading Texans have won four of their past five. ... Stroud is 2-0 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions in two career starts in prime time. He had 285 yards passing last week for his ninth career game with at least that many yards passing, which is tied for second most in the NFL since 2023. ... WR Tank Dell had a touchdown reception last week and has a TD catch in two of his past three games. ... TE Dalton Schultz had a season-high 52 yards receiving against the Colts. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two Thursday night games. ... Hunter has 10½ sacks in eight career Thursday night games. … LB Neville Hewitt, who spent the 2018-21 seasons with the Jets, forced a fumble last week. … Rookie CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high three passes defended last week. … S Jalen Pitre had his first interception of the season last week. ... S Eric Murray had seven tackles and a season-high three passes defended last week. ... New York is trying to snap a five-game skid. ... Jeff Ulbrich is 0-3 as the Jets’ interim head coach since replacing the fired Robert Saleh on Oct. 8. Ulbrich, also the team's defensive coordinator, said earlier this week he'll continue to call plays on defense. … Rodgers snapped a streak of three consecutive games with an interception. He has seven in eight games, six shy of his single-season career high set in 2008 in his first year as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. ... Rodgers hasn't passed for 300 yards since throwing for 341 against Chicago on Dec. 12, 2021 — a span of 30 regular-season games and 31 overall, including one playoff game. ... WR Garrett Wilson leads the NFL with 84 targets, 11 more than the Giants’ Malik Nabers. Wilson’s 51 receptions are second in the league behind Las Vegas’ Brock Bowers, who has 52. ... WR Davante Adams had four catches for 54 yards, giving him seven receptions for 84 yards in two games since being acquired from the Raiders. ... Second-year WR Xavier Gipson caught his first career TD pass last Sunday. ... TE Tyler Conklin has a TD catch in consecutive games after not having one since catching two TD passes in Week 8 of the 2022 season against New England. ... RB Breece Hall has 316 yards receiving, the most among NFL running backs. ... Edge rusher Will McDonald has eight sacks, second in the NFL to the Giants’ Dexter Lawrence (nine). … The Jets have only six takeaways, ranking among the fewest in the league. Backup CB Brandin Echols has New York's only two interceptions.
Fantasy tip
Houston wide receiver John Metchie is coming off a career-best three-catch game and could see more targets — and perhaps his first NFL touchdown — with both Diggs and Collins out. Might be worth a stash as a potential WR3.
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