LET'S MAKE A DEAL
How latest MLB mega-deal could swing pendulum in Astros negotiations
Feb 6, 2024, 12:32 pm
LET'S MAKE A DEAL
The Kansas City Royals signed their 23-year-old shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., with only two big league seasons under his belt, to a massive 11-year, $288.7 million guaranteed contract.
That bit of sports financial news lit a rocket under Houston social media and blew a fuse on talk radio.
If the Royals can sign Bobby Witt Jr. long-term, why can’t the Astros get a similar deal done with their All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker?
Didn’t general manager Dana Brown announce publicly last season that the Astros would do whatever it takes to keep Tucker in Houston for his entire career? Well …?
The bottom line, and it’s always the bottom line that drives the Astros these days, Bobby Witt Jr. and Kyle Tucker are two entirely different situations.
Witt Jr. is 23 years old and coming off a season where he batted .276 with 30 home runs, 96 RBI and 49 stolen bases, all standout numbers especially for a shortstop.
But that $288.7 million contract has more holes than a 100-pound wheel of Swiss cheese. Witt Jr. can opt out as soon as 2030. The Royals can exercise options that would extend the contract and bring the total to $377.7 million. Most important, Witt Jr. could be in line for another pot of gold contract when this one runs out.
Kyle Tucker is 27 years old with four full seasons of MLB experience, all with the Astros. Last year Tucker batted .284, smacked 29 homers, drove in 112 runs (led the American League) and stole 30 bases. He is a legit All-Star, one of the best players in baseball. But he’s faltered in the postseason, batting only .237 with eight homers over 14 different series. And the Astros are all about the postseason.
While Witt Jr. may be the better long-term risk for the Royals based on his age and statistics, Tucker actually is the one with hand over the Astros.
The Royals lost 106 games last year, tying their franchise record for futility, their seventh consecutive losing season. The Royals aren’t necessarily cheapskates, it’s just that Kansas City is a small baseball market with limited revenue sources (although their next-door neighbor Kansas City Chiefs seem to be prospering in the NFL, the biggest sports league in the world).
If Witt Jr. continues to put up amazing numbers, just maybe, he could make the Royals a .500 team.
Tucker means more to the Astros than Witt Jr. means to the Royals.
If Tucker has a big season and corrects his postseason blues, he could propel the Astros to another downtown World Series parade.
The biggest difference in the two players: Witt Jr. wanted to stay in Kansas City. We don’t know how Tucker feels about a future in Houston. He will make $12 million this season. Meanwhile players with half his credentials are making twice as much on other teams.
I’m certain of this: if owner Jim Crane presented the same contract to Tucker that the Royals gave to Witt Jr., Tucker would say no. Tucker remembers when the Astros beat him in arbitration over $2.5 million (relative peanuts these days) a couple of seasons ago. Tucker made no bones about his feelings of being underpaid.
I’m told that Tucker and his agent were none too pleased when Dana Brown all but promised fans that Tucker would be an Astro for life. First, it was giddy chatter, especially since the Astros are famous for avoiding long-term contracts. More important, it planted the idea in fans’ heads that the Astros want Tucker and, if things don’t work out, Tucker is the villain.
It’s reported that Tucker and his agent are resigned to playing the next two years in Houston and entering free agency where big bucks, possibly $350 million-plus, could await him. And who knows where the MLB market will be in two years?
The Houston Texans have a big challenge in store as they look to start the season with a win against the Colts this Sunday. When these two teams met in Week 2 last year, the Colts dominated the Texans, despite losing their QB Anthony Richardson to a concussion after the first quarter.
Keeping Richardson contained on Sunday will go a long way in increasing the Texans' chances of coming home with a win. The Texans defense will have their hands full containing the Colts backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Scoring touchdowns with their wide receivers could prove difficult, as the Texans allowed the second-fewest TDs (10) to the receiver position in 2023.
Limiting running back Jonathan Taylor will also be a top priority. While the Texans had an elite defense against the run last season, they struggled with Taylor in Week 18 as he almost rushed for 200 yards.
Houston's D allowed only four carries to running backs in 2023 that went for 20 or more yards. Two of which were to Taylor in the final game of the regular season.
Finally, DeMeco Ryans and company have to find a way to get pressure on the QB. They only had one QB hit and zero sacks on Richardson and Garner Minshew the first time they faced off last year.
On offense, the Texans have two big x-factors to watch for on Sunday. The offensive line that suited up to play the Colts in Week 2 last season is completely different from this year.
The o-line was ravaged with injuries to start the 2023 campaign, so we expect a big jump in productivity in the trenches this year.
Another big addition in 2024 is the presence of running back Joe Mixon. The running game only produced 2 yards per rush in Week 2 against Indy last year, so there's clearly room for improvement.
Be sure to watch the video above for our in-depth preview of Texans-Colts!
And catch Texans on Tap (a Texans podcast) live on our SportsMapTexans YouTube channel following every game this season!