LET'S MAKE A DEAL
How latest MLB mega-deal could swing pendulum in Astros negotiations
Feb 6, 2024, 12:32 pm
Would Kyle Tucker sign a deal similar to Bobby Witt Jr.'s? Composite Getty Image.
The Kansas City Royals signed their 23-year-old shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., with only two big league seasons under his belt, to a massive 11-year, $288.7 million guaranteed contract.
That bit of sports financial news lit a rocket under Houston social media and blew a fuse on talk radio.
If the Royals can sign Bobby Witt Jr. long-term, why can’t the Astros get a similar deal done with their All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker?
Didn’t general manager Dana Brown announce publicly last season that the Astros would do whatever it takes to keep Tucker in Houston for his entire career? Well …?
The bottom line, and it’s always the bottom line that drives the Astros these days, Bobby Witt Jr. and Kyle Tucker are two entirely different situations.
Witt Jr. is 23 years old and coming off a season where he batted .276 with 30 home runs, 96 RBI and 49 stolen bases, all standout numbers especially for a shortstop.
But that $288.7 million contract has more holes than a 100-pound wheel of Swiss cheese. Witt Jr. can opt out as soon as 2030. The Royals can exercise options that would extend the contract and bring the total to $377.7 million. Most important, Witt Jr. could be in line for another pot of gold contract when this one runs out.
Kyle Tucker is 27 years old with four full seasons of MLB experience, all with the Astros. Last year Tucker batted .284, smacked 29 homers, drove in 112 runs (led the American League) and stole 30 bases. He is a legit All-Star, one of the best players in baseball. But he’s faltered in the postseason, batting only .237 with eight homers over 14 different series. And the Astros are all about the postseason.
While Witt Jr. may be the better long-term risk for the Royals based on his age and statistics, Tucker actually is the one with hand over the Astros.
The Royals lost 106 games last year, tying their franchise record for futility, their seventh consecutive losing season. The Royals aren’t necessarily cheapskates, it’s just that Kansas City is a small baseball market with limited revenue sources (although their next-door neighbor Kansas City Chiefs seem to be prospering in the NFL, the biggest sports league in the world).
If Witt Jr. continues to put up amazing numbers, just maybe, he could make the Royals a .500 team.
Tucker means more to the Astros than Witt Jr. means to the Royals.
If Tucker has a big season and corrects his postseason blues, he could propel the Astros to another downtown World Series parade.
The biggest difference in the two players: Witt Jr. wanted to stay in Kansas City. We don’t know how Tucker feels about a future in Houston. He will make $12 million this season. Meanwhile players with half his credentials are making twice as much on other teams.
I’m certain of this: if owner Jim Crane presented the same contract to Tucker that the Royals gave to Witt Jr., Tucker would say no. Tucker remembers when the Astros beat him in arbitration over $2.5 million (relative peanuts these days) a couple of seasons ago. Tucker made no bones about his feelings of being underpaid.
I’m told that Tucker and his agent were none too pleased when Dana Brown all but promised fans that Tucker would be an Astro for life. First, it was giddy chatter, especially since the Astros are famous for avoiding long-term contracts. More important, it planted the idea in fans’ heads that the Astros want Tucker and, if things don’t work out, Tucker is the villain.
It’s reported that Tucker and his agent are resigned to playing the next two years in Houston and entering free agency where big bucks, possibly $350 million-plus, could await him. And who knows where the MLB market will be in two years?
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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