LET'S MAKE A DEAL
How latest MLB mega-deal could swing pendulum in Astros negotiations
Feb 6, 2024, 12:32 pm
Would Kyle Tucker sign a deal similar to Bobby Witt Jr.'s? Composite Getty Image.
The Kansas City Royals signed their 23-year-old shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., with only two big league seasons under his belt, to a massive 11-year, $288.7 million guaranteed contract.
That bit of sports financial news lit a rocket under Houston social media and blew a fuse on talk radio.
If the Royals can sign Bobby Witt Jr. long-term, why can’t the Astros get a similar deal done with their All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker?
Didn’t general manager Dana Brown announce publicly last season that the Astros would do whatever it takes to keep Tucker in Houston for his entire career? Well …?
The bottom line, and it’s always the bottom line that drives the Astros these days, Bobby Witt Jr. and Kyle Tucker are two entirely different situations.
Witt Jr. is 23 years old and coming off a season where he batted .276 with 30 home runs, 96 RBI and 49 stolen bases, all standout numbers especially for a shortstop.
But that $288.7 million contract has more holes than a 100-pound wheel of Swiss cheese. Witt Jr. can opt out as soon as 2030. The Royals can exercise options that would extend the contract and bring the total to $377.7 million. Most important, Witt Jr. could be in line for another pot of gold contract when this one runs out.
Kyle Tucker is 27 years old with four full seasons of MLB experience, all with the Astros. Last year Tucker batted .284, smacked 29 homers, drove in 112 runs (led the American League) and stole 30 bases. He is a legit All-Star, one of the best players in baseball. But he’s faltered in the postseason, batting only .237 with eight homers over 14 different series. And the Astros are all about the postseason.
While Witt Jr. may be the better long-term risk for the Royals based on his age and statistics, Tucker actually is the one with hand over the Astros.
The Royals lost 106 games last year, tying their franchise record for futility, their seventh consecutive losing season. The Royals aren’t necessarily cheapskates, it’s just that Kansas City is a small baseball market with limited revenue sources (although their next-door neighbor Kansas City Chiefs seem to be prospering in the NFL, the biggest sports league in the world).
If Witt Jr. continues to put up amazing numbers, just maybe, he could make the Royals a .500 team.
Tucker means more to the Astros than Witt Jr. means to the Royals.
If Tucker has a big season and corrects his postseason blues, he could propel the Astros to another downtown World Series parade.
The biggest difference in the two players: Witt Jr. wanted to stay in Kansas City. We don’t know how Tucker feels about a future in Houston. He will make $12 million this season. Meanwhile players with half his credentials are making twice as much on other teams.
I’m certain of this: if owner Jim Crane presented the same contract to Tucker that the Royals gave to Witt Jr., Tucker would say no. Tucker remembers when the Astros beat him in arbitration over $2.5 million (relative peanuts these days) a couple of seasons ago. Tucker made no bones about his feelings of being underpaid.
I’m told that Tucker and his agent were none too pleased when Dana Brown all but promised fans that Tucker would be an Astro for life. First, it was giddy chatter, especially since the Astros are famous for avoiding long-term contracts. More important, it planted the idea in fans’ heads that the Astros want Tucker and, if things don’t work out, Tucker is the villain.
It’s reported that Tucker and his agent are resigned to playing the next two years in Houston and entering free agency where big bucks, possibly $350 million-plus, could await him. And who knows where the MLB market will be in two years?
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The Houston Astros walked out of Phoenix with a three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks, but the biggest win of the series might not have been in the standings, it could’ve been the emergence of their latest young spark plug.
Once again, the pitching carried the load. Brandon Walter continued his breakout season with another strong showing, and right now, he looks like Houston’s third starter if the playoffs began today. Behind him, Ryan Gusto and Colton Gordon have quietly helped stabilize a rotation ravaged by injuries. All three own ERAs under 4.5, a luxury the Astros couldn’t have anticipated heading into the year. Another thing they couldn't have anticipated was Lance McCullers' ERA this season being almost seven.
Walter’s rise comes at the same time the McCullers situation grows murkier. After starting the season late, he’s on the injured list again, this time with a blister on his pitching hand. Though the issue isn’t related to his arm, the “vibes” simply haven't been there. He’s struggled in four of his last five starts, and one wonders whether a "phantom" IL stint might be in his future, especially with Cristian Javier and Spencer Arrighetti progressing in rehab assignments. The roster squeeze is coming, and McCullers might not make the cut.
Crushing dingers!
Offensively, the conversation begins and ends with Brice Matthews. The first-round pick has quickly shifted from injury fill-in to potential staple, nearly winning the series by himself with three home runs across the first two games. His athleticism has popped in the field, and while contact concerns remain, the power and energy are real. Matthews is the only prospect of his pedigree ready to contribute, so the club made a wise decision to take a shot on upside, and Matthews delivered. That's why we were so emphatic about the Astros elevating Matthews. Get him in the lineup as a DH if you have to, whatever it takes, this offense needs pop. Then lo and behold, not only does he give the offense a lift, his defense also helped seal a win against Arizona.
Veteran slugger Christian Walker might be heating up too, posting a .348 average with three home runs and an .895 OPS in July. That’s a promising development, especially in a month when the Astros have flipped their typical formula. The pitching has been average — 18th in ERA, 18th in WHIP, 21st in opponent batting average — but the offense has been elite: top-five in slugging, OPS, and runs scored.
Injury bug
Still, questions persist. Chief among them is the health of Yordan Alvarez. His recent comments about his hand injury — specifically, his uncertainty and acknowledgement that rest hasn’t helped — were troubling. If surgery isn’t an option and time off isn’t working, what is the long-term solution? At this point, fans are right to worry about whether Alvarez will ever fully return to the dominant form he once showed.
Trade deadline
With the trade deadline one week away, general manager Dana Brown has to weigh all of this. The pitching could soon be bolstered by returns from the IL. But the offense, especially with no clear return dates for Alvarez, Jeremy Peña, Jake Meyers, and Isaac Paredes, might need immediate help. Despite the sweep, Houston scored just three and four runs in the final two games of the Diamondbacks series. If they’re serious about contending for a championship, another bat may be required. They'll see much better pitching in the postseason.
If the Astros do decide to add an arm, a power right-handed reliever could make sense. With Bryan Abreu the only truly dominant righty in the bullpen, a little late-inning muscle wouldn’t hurt.
Bottom line: the Astros are winning, and they're doing it in multiple ways. But with health concerns piling up and playoff positioning tightening, there’s still plenty of work ahead. Fortunately for Houston, they may have just found another foundational piece in the most unexpected place, a rookie who’s already changing the conversation.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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