Even though the 2024 Astros were only a pretty good team, capable of getting drummed out of the playoffs by any opponent, it’s still a bit of a shock to the system having the Astros’ season over well before the end of the first of week of October. Alas, seven consecutive trips to the American League Championship Series did not mean the Astros held the deed on a spot this year, or any going forward.

Early this year Jim Crane somewhat famously said that as long as he’s around the window of contention for the Astros will always be open. For the time being at least he’s absolutely right. The Astros still have a solid contender nucleus. If the Seattle Mariners add multiple significant quality players to their batting order for 2025 the Astros could be in big trouble, but unless the Mariners uncharacteristically step up there is no AL West foe that gives pause to whether the Astros are still an American League contender. That said, a contender is what they are. One of many. It hasn’t been a great team for two seasons now. There is nothing horrifying about that. If the Astros were to miss the playoffs entirely next year, it wouldn’t unstitch one thread from the wonderous run woven from 2017 forward.

Crane, General Manager Dana Brown and any others involved have an array of questions to answer. First on the minds of many is Alex Bregman. A six years or longer 150-mil plus contract for a soon-to-be 31-year-old Bregman coming off the worst healthy season of his career is not smart business. George Springer was a much better player his last two seasons with the Astros than Bregman has been the past two. Springer hit free agency when he was about six months older than Bregman is now. Springer is in decline and the two years remaining on the six year 150 million dollar deal he got from the Toronto Blue Jays look like a lot of sunk cost.

Bregman will seek more than six years, 150 mil. More power to him if he gets it, and there will be good teams in the market for a third baseman. Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez has been a better player than Bregman for five consecutive seasons. In April 2022 Ramirez signed a five year 124 million dollar extension with the Guardians. That will get him through his age-36 season. Last year Boston inked then 26-year-old slugging third baseman Rafael Devers to an 11 year 331 million dollar deal. Devers’s defense can be shaky but he’s been a better offensive player than Bregman four years running. Former superstar hot corner stud Nolan Arenado turns 34 years old in April. He’s been a mediocre player for two years now, but the St. Louis Cardinals are on the hook for 74 million over the next three years.

Buyer's remorse?

If Dana Brown thinks closer Josh Hader had a strong season, he’s mistaken. Citing Hader as having blown only three (it was actually four) saves is superficial, conveniently leaving out the fistful of games Hader gave up with ninth inning home runs in non-save situations. Owing him 19 million dollars for another four seasons is a terrible (and untradeable unless paying down a lot of it) contract for the Astros. Hader last had back-to-back excellent seasons in 2018 and 2019. He was awful in 2022, middling this year. Hopeful good news is that Hader was sensational in 2021 and 2023. An odd year beckons!

We’ll have much to address, analyze, and discuss through a huge Astros’ offseason which is off to an atypically early start. Do they put Framber Valdez on the trading block? Unless Valdez takes a short money extension, say, two years 50 million beyond his final salary arbitration season of 2025, hard to see the Astros committing big bucks long term to a 32-year-old pitcher (Framber’s age Opening Day 2026). His latest lousy postseason outing aside, Framber is quality and would command a solid return even as a one-season rental. Think a lesser version of Corbin Burnes who Milwaukee dealt to Baltimore last offseason for two excellent prospects and a draft pick. Of course, dealing Framber would punch a big hole in the Astros’ 2025 rotation, which beyond him has only Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco as solid guys going into the new campaign. Spencer Arrighetti has promise, but was 7-13 with a 4.53 earned run average. There is hope that Luis Garcia should be an okay back of the rotation starter coming off of his Tommy John surgery, but that’s at least as much hope as expectation. Who knows whether Cristian Javier pitches at all coming off of his Tommy John operation, and if so how well? Lance McCullers? Anyone can dream, I guess.

Do they try to off-load Ryan Pressly’s 14 million dollars salary (methinks yes but what’s the market, and would Pressly waive his no-trade clause)? That would help the re-sign Yusei Kikuchi Fund. What plausibility is there for a Kyle Tucker extension? Would he agree to rebate a million dollars for each weak postseason at bat? Kidding. Mostly. Then there’s third base if Bregman a goner, center field, will Jeremy Pena improve at all, and more. A piping Hot Stove it shall be.

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.