THE PALLILOG
How Houston Astros strategically pivot as outfield competition heats up
Mar 21, 2025, 12:41 pm
What will the outfield look like on Opening Day? Composite Getty Image.
Spring has officially sprung and the Astros are about to head home from spring training, meaning the regular season is almost here. Throw in the ongoing NCAA Tournament and late-March Houston weather, and this is one of the best times of the year. There is more uncertainty about the quality of the Astros heading into a season then there has been in nearly a decade, which frankly makes for an even more fun season if the most critical questions get positive answers. Let’s delve into a few issues.
Is it the Cam-shaft if the Grapefruit League phenom isn’t in the Astros’ lineup opening day? No it isn’t, but there really is no downside to giving Cam Smith a shot in right field right out of the gate. The hype has gone over the top given Smith’s spring consists of fewer than 40 at bats with most of them coming against minor league caliber pitchers. Nevertheless, the 22-year-old has looked the part of a big leaguer. If it’s because he’s ready to be one now it’s just wasting time of his career keeping him in the minors. The raw talent is irrefutable. If Smith gets the shot and is overmatched by big league pitching, it’s not catastrophic to have to send him down for some more seasoning. Basically learning to play right field on the fly at the big league level would be an additional challenge. But it’s not as if the Astros would be benching a good player to see what Smith can do.
Manager Joe Espada by nature and by de facto job requirement has to present a positive front. Espada has talked of Chas McCormick making good contact and hitting balls hard. Blah, blah, blah. Three singles and one double in 28 at bats doesn’t make anyone tingly with excitement. Again, spring training statistics should be taken with buckets full of grains of salt, but last spring McCormick hit .366 with an .865 OPS. Then, when the games started counting, his season was pretty relentlessly atrocious. Paraphrasing myself from one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week: in 2022 Chas was a Champ. 2023 was the year of the Chas Chomp. In 2024 Chas was a Chump. You know who hit .308 with a .919 OPS during spring training 2024? Jose Abreu. We heard about his exit velocities and bat speed (and of course the back of his baseball card). Blah, blah, blah. Mauricio Dubon had a gaudy .471 average last spring. Then the real games began. Alex Bregman sizzled in Florida, then started the regular season in a six-week offensive coma. I have covered repeatedly how a very high percentage of bonafide star-level players are in the majors at 22. They don’t all crush it from day one. They absolutely, positively cannot crush it until given a shot.
So far, so bad?
The Jose Altuve left fielder experiment has not gone well so far. Some of it is very problematic, some of it much less so. Altuve botching two routine catches this week may have induced wincing and/or groaning, but there is going to be a learning curve. As a second baseman Altuve never had to worry about trying to catch a ball with his glove in the air, make a quick transfer, and throw the ball a distance longer than from second base to first base. That he rushed a couple times and dropped the fly ball may actually be a good thing because it should reinforce that while you want the catch and throw to be one fluid action, the first component must be secured first. The advice to Little Leaguers may be worth noting too: “Two hands!” Altuve’s weak arm is indisputable and an inescapable problem as long as he is out there, but it is highly doubtful that catching routine fly balls remains an adventure. If it does, aborting Altuve’s outfield becomes near mandatory. All this drives home how substantially the Astros see Altuve’s defensive erosion at second base (as backed up by all the advanced metrics). It’s not as if Altuve was removed from the position at which he’ll be recognized as a Hall of Famer because a Dubon/Brendan Rodgers/Luis Guillorme second base option is exciting. Ideally, 2023 first round draft pick Brice Matthews becomes the Astros’ future regular at second. But Matthews is not close to ready. Basically, would you/they prefer Altuve in left with anybody else playing second, or Altuve back at second with Smith and Jake Meyers manning two outfield spots with some combo of McCormick, Ben Gamel, and Zach Dezenzo in the third. Obviously the Astros see the former as better. For now at least.
Arms race
If the Astros are to win the American League West for the eighth time in nine years (eight straight full-schedule seasons) the starting pitching will almost certainly be the biggest reason. With the Yankees losing Gerrit Cole for the entire season and 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil for at least half the season, there isn’t one American League rotation that definitely rates above the Astros. The Mariners’ rotation probably rates better, maybe the Royals’. Framber Valdez makes his fourth (and last?) consecutive Astros’ opening day start Thursday. The New York Mets will go with converted former Yankees’ reliever Clay Holmes who will make his first start since 2018. Play ball!
Opening Day is almost here! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!