THE PALLILOG

How Houston Astros strategically pivot as outfield competition heats up

Astros Chas McCormick, Jose Altuve
What will the outfield look like on Opening Day? Composite Getty Image.

Spring has officially sprung and the Astros are about to head home from spring training, meaning the regular season is almost here. Throw in the ongoing NCAA Tournament and late-March Houston weather, and this is one of the best times of the year. There is more uncertainty about the quality of the Astros heading into a season then there has been in nearly a decade, which frankly makes for an even more fun season if the most critical questions get positive answers. Let’s delve into a few issues.

Is it the Cam-shaft if the Grapefruit League phenom isn’t in the Astros’ lineup opening day? No it isn’t, but there really is no downside to giving Cam Smith a shot in right field right out of the gate. The hype has gone over the top given Smith’s spring consists of fewer than 40 at bats with most of them coming against minor league caliber pitchers. Nevertheless, the 22-year-old has looked the part of a big leaguer. If it’s because he’s ready to be one now it’s just wasting time of his career keeping him in the minors. The raw talent is irrefutable. If Smith gets the shot and is overmatched by big league pitching, it’s not catastrophic to have to send him down for some more seasoning. Basically learning to play right field on the fly at the big league level would be an additional challenge. But it’s not as if the Astros would be benching a good player to see what Smith can do.

Manager Joe Espada by nature and by de facto job requirement has to present a positive front. Espada has talked of Chas McCormick making good contact and hitting balls hard. Blah, blah, blah. Three singles and one double in 28 at bats doesn’t make anyone tingly with excitement. Again, spring training statistics should be taken with buckets full of grains of salt, but last spring McCormick hit .366 with an .865 OPS. Then, when the games started counting, his season was pretty relentlessly atrocious. Paraphrasing myself from one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week: in 2022 Chas was a Champ. 2023 was the year of the Chas Chomp. In 2024 Chas was a Chump. You know who hit .308 with a .919 OPS during spring training 2024? Jose Abreu. We heard about his exit velocities and bat speed (and of course the back of his baseball card). Blah, blah, blah. Mauricio Dubon had a gaudy .471 average last spring. Then the real games began. Alex Bregman sizzled in Florida, then started the regular season in a six-week offensive coma. I have covered repeatedly how a very high percentage of bonafide star-level players are in the majors at 22. They don’t all crush it from day one. They absolutely, positively cannot crush it until given a shot.

So far, so bad?

The Jose Altuve left fielder experiment has not gone well so far. Some of it is very problematic, some of it much less so. Altuve botching two routine catches this week may have induced wincing and/or groaning, but there is going to be a learning curve. As a second baseman Altuve never had to worry about trying to catch a ball with his glove in the air, make a quick transfer, and throw the ball a distance longer than from second base to first base. That he rushed a couple times and dropped the fly ball may actually be a good thing because it should reinforce that while you want the catch and throw to be one fluid action, the first component must be secured first. The advice to Little Leaguers may be worth noting too: “Two hands!” Altuve’s weak arm is indisputable and an inescapable problem as long as he is out there, but it is highly doubtful that catching routine fly balls remains an adventure. If it does, aborting Altuve’s outfield becomes near mandatory. All this drives home how substantially the Astros see Altuve’s defensive erosion at second base (as backed up by all the advanced metrics). It’s not as if Altuve was removed from the position at which he’ll be recognized as a Hall of Famer because a Dubon/Brendan Rodgers/Luis Guillorme second base option is exciting. Ideally, 2023 first round draft pick Brice Matthews becomes the Astros’ future regular at second. But Matthews is not close to ready. Basically, would you/they prefer Altuve in left with anybody else playing second, or Altuve back at second with Smith and Jake Meyers manning two outfield spots with some combo of McCormick, Ben Gamel, and Zach Dezenzo in the third. Obviously the Astros see the former as better. For now at least.

Arms race

If the Astros are to win the American League West for the eighth time in nine years (eight straight full-schedule seasons) the starting pitching will almost certainly be the biggest reason. With the Yankees losing Gerrit Cole for the entire season and 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil for at least half the season, there isn’t one American League rotation that definitely rates above the Astros. The Mariners’ rotation probably rates better, maybe the Royals’. Framber Valdez makes his fourth (and last?) consecutive Astros’ opening day start Thursday. The New York Mets will go with converted former Yankees’ reliever Clay Holmes who will make his first start since 2018. Play ball!

Opening Day is almost here! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!


*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!

https://houston.sportsmap.com/advertise

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
Is it time for MLB to step in? Composite Getty Image.

Bold decisions to change Major League Baseball’s longstanding rules quickened the pace of games and revived the popularity of stealing bases over the last few years.

A similarly creative move may be needed to help starting pitching regain the relevance it enjoyed as recently as a decade ago.

Only four pitchers (Seattle’s Logan Gilbert, Kansas City’s Seth Lugo, San Francisco’s Logan Webb and Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler) threw as many as 200 innings last season, down from 34 in 2014.

During that same 2014 season, all 30 major league teams got over 900 innings from their starting pitchers and five had over 1,000. Last year, only four teams had their starters pitch at least 900 innings, led by Seattle with 942 2/3.

While this shift has been years in the making, the numbers themselves provide a cold slap of reality to longtime fans who remember seeing Bob Gibson throw three complete games in the 1967 World Series or Jack Morris pitching 10 shutout innings in Game 7 of the 1991 Fall Classic.

Going back to the days of Cy Young and Walter Johnson, part of the game's beauty was watching a pitcher work his way through a lineup three or four times.

With every team having multiple relievers who can come out of the bullpen and throw in the high 90s, what could prompt teams to let their starters work deeper into games?

Managers and players struggle to come up with a solution.

“Outside of just changing rules to incentivize managers to keep guys in games longer,” Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said.

Roberts’ Dodgers exemplified the bullpen emphasis during their run to the 2024 World Series title. Their starting pitchers worked as many as six innings in just two of their 16 postseason games.

Texas’ Nathan Eovaldi went 5-0 with five postseason quality starts (defined as going at least six innings while allowing no more than three earned runs) a year earlier while helping the Rangers win their first World Series championship. Yet even he understands how much things have changed for starting pitchers since he made his big-league debut in 2011.

“Bullpens are a lot different now than they were back then,” Eovaldi said. “You’ve got a lot more guys who aren’t just eight- and ninth-inning guys. They can come in, in the sixth or seventh, go multiple innings. They all have multiple pitches now as well. I think that’s one of the fascinating things about the bullpen. You don’t have guys who are just a two-pitch mix anymore. They’ve got three or four pitches coming out, and two of them are really, really elite.”

And that’s why there seems only one way to get starters working more innings.

“Putting in rules that you have to,” San Francisco Giants manager Bob Melvin said. “We’ve created our own monster. It is what it is.”

What rules could MLB create to promote starting pitching?

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred says it’s too early to explore rules changes.

“Our focus right now is training methods, particularly offseason training methods,” Manfred said. “It’s going to be somewhere between education and recommendations. It’s very hard to tell people you can’t do X, Y and Z, right? They’re grown men and there’s no way to monitor it during the offseason.”

One problem is the lack of a clear consensus on what rule changes could work best.

For instance, MLB had the Atlantic League experiment in 2021 and 2023 with a rule change that would force a team to lose its designated hitter if its starting pitcher didn’t finish at least five innings.

Instituting that kind of rule could be a tough sell in the majors, where some of the league’s most bankable stars such as Shohei Ohtani and Bryce Harper have received ample playing time at DH the last few years. Fans paying to see those stars likely wouldn’t be happy to see them get removed as collateral damage from an early pitching change.

MLB hasn’t announced any similar types of rules experimentations in the minors this season.

The maximum number of pitchers allowed on MLB rosters was lowered from 14 to 13 in 2022, though that limit rises to 14 when rosters expand from 26 to 28 on Sept. 1. A more extreme rule change would be to require starters to work at least five or six innings unless they get injured, throw a certain number of pitches or allow a particular number of runs.

Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said he wouldn’t mind seeing the minor leagues try out more rule changes designed at lengthening starting pitchers. He wants those pitching prospects to get accustomed to working deeper into games.

“That’s the way it used to be with starters,” Bochy said. “Now I think the mentality can be, ‘Hey, I’ve done my job. I’ve thrown four or five innings.’ “

Giants pitcher Robbie Ray says the history of the game shows that starters can adapt to longer outings.

“I think starting pitchers are capable of doing it,” said Ray, who won the 2021 AL Cy Young Award with Toronto. “It’s just a matter of kind of training our bodies to do that again because what’s been expected of us has changed over the years.”

Restoring endurance as a valued skill

A 62-page MLB study released in December showed how the focus on rising velocities and maximum effort on each pitch had resulted in more injuries among pitchers. That study also revealed that starts of five or more innings dropped from 84% to 70% in the majors from 2005-24 and from 68.9% to 36.8% in the minors.

“Because we’re trying to create this engine and this repetitive thought of just pure stuff each and every pitch, yeah, starters are going to fatigue sooner,” Cleveland Guardians pitching coach Carl Willis said. “And at the same time, we’re training them that way. We’re training them to do so.

“Everybody still talks about wanting to go out for the sixth, wanting to go out for the seventh and getting deep into games. I don’t know that we’re training them to do that, and I don’t know how we are kind of teaching nowadays can allow that to happen.”

A change in approach could allow those starters to get that endurance. Right now, it’s the older guys who seem more used to that workload.

The MLB leader in quality starts last season was the 34-year-old Wheeler, who had 26. Lugo, 35, had 22 quality starts to tie for second place.

Even so, the 2024 season did offer some encouraging signs for the future of starting pitching.

MLB pitchers threw 5.22 innings per start last season. That represented the most since 2018, though it was still far off the 2014 average of 5.97.

The 2024 season also featured an MLB average of 85.5 pitches per start, the highest since 2019. Starters haven’t thrown as many as 90 pitches per appearance since 2017.

Perhaps it’s inevitable that the pendulum swing at least a little more toward getting starters to work longer. The recent focus on relievers puts more pressure on them, causing bullpens to break down.

There’s one obvious method to change that.

“I don’t think necessarily the game is going to all of a sudden turn back the other way, but there’s a huge push to understand how you can keep a bullpen healthy,” Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy said. “And one of the biggest ways is those starters getting through that first bulk and getting you into the sixth or seventh.”

Now it’s just a matter of figuring out how those starters can pitch deeper into games more often.

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome