THE PALLILOG

How Houston Astros strategically pivot as outfield competition heats up

Astros Chas McCormick, Jose Altuve
What will the outfield look like on Opening Day? Composite Getty Image.

Spring has officially sprung and the Astros are about to head home from spring training, meaning the regular season is almost here. Throw in the ongoing NCAA Tournament and late-March Houston weather, and this is one of the best times of the year. There is more uncertainty about the quality of the Astros heading into a season then there has been in nearly a decade, which frankly makes for an even more fun season if the most critical questions get positive answers. Let’s delve into a few issues.

Is it the Cam-shaft if the Grapefruit League phenom isn’t in the Astros’ lineup opening day? No it isn’t, but there really is no downside to giving Cam Smith a shot in right field right out of the gate. The hype has gone over the top given Smith’s spring consists of fewer than 40 at bats with most of them coming against minor league caliber pitchers. Nevertheless, the 22-year-old has looked the part of a big leaguer. If it’s because he’s ready to be one now it’s just wasting time of his career keeping him in the minors. The raw talent is irrefutable. If Smith gets the shot and is overmatched by big league pitching, it’s not catastrophic to have to send him down for some more seasoning. Basically learning to play right field on the fly at the big league level would be an additional challenge. But it’s not as if the Astros would be benching a good player to see what Smith can do.

Manager Joe Espada by nature and by de facto job requirement has to present a positive front. Espada has talked of Chas McCormick making good contact and hitting balls hard. Blah, blah, blah. Three singles and one double in 28 at bats doesn’t make anyone tingly with excitement. Again, spring training statistics should be taken with buckets full of grains of salt, but last spring McCormick hit .366 with an .865 OPS. Then, when the games started counting, his season was pretty relentlessly atrocious. Paraphrasing myself from one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week: in 2022 Chas was a Champ. 2023 was the year of the Chas Chomp. In 2024 Chas was a Chump. You know who hit .308 with a .919 OPS during spring training 2024? Jose Abreu. We heard about his exit velocities and bat speed (and of course the back of his baseball card). Blah, blah, blah. Mauricio Dubon had a gaudy .471 average last spring. Then the real games began. Alex Bregman sizzled in Florida, then started the regular season in a six-week offensive coma. I have covered repeatedly how a very high percentage of bonafide star-level players are in the majors at 22. They don’t all crush it from day one. They absolutely, positively cannot crush it until given a shot.

So far, so bad?

The Jose Altuve left fielder experiment has not gone well so far. Some of it is very problematic, some of it much less so. Altuve botching two routine catches this week may have induced wincing and/or groaning, but there is going to be a learning curve. As a second baseman Altuve never had to worry about trying to catch a ball with his glove in the air, make a quick transfer, and throw the ball a distance longer than from second base to first base. That he rushed a couple times and dropped the fly ball may actually be a good thing because it should reinforce that while you want the catch and throw to be one fluid action, the first component must be secured first. The advice to Little Leaguers may be worth noting too: “Two hands!” Altuve’s weak arm is indisputable and an inescapable problem as long as he is out there, but it is highly doubtful that catching routine fly balls remains an adventure. If it does, aborting Altuve’s outfield becomes near mandatory. All this drives home how substantially the Astros see Altuve’s defensive erosion at second base (as backed up by all the advanced metrics). It’s not as if Altuve was removed from the position at which he’ll be recognized as a Hall of Famer because a Dubon/Brendan Rodgers/Luis Guillorme second base option is exciting. Ideally, 2023 first round draft pick Brice Matthews becomes the Astros’ future regular at second. But Matthews is not close to ready. Basically, would you/they prefer Altuve in left with anybody else playing second, or Altuve back at second with Smith and Jake Meyers manning two outfield spots with some combo of McCormick, Ben Gamel, and Zach Dezenzo in the third. Obviously the Astros see the former as better. For now at least.

Arms race

If the Astros are to win the American League West for the eighth time in nine years (eight straight full-schedule seasons) the starting pitching will almost certainly be the biggest reason. With the Yankees losing Gerrit Cole for the entire season and 2024 AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil for at least half the season, there isn’t one American League rotation that definitely rates above the Astros. The Mariners’ rotation probably rates better, maybe the Royals’. Framber Valdez makes his fourth (and last?) consecutive Astros’ opening day start Thursday. The New York Mets will go with converted former Yankees’ reliever Clay Holmes who will make his first start since 2018. Play ball!

Opening Day is almost here! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!


*Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!

https://houston.sportsmap.com/advertise

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
Three is the magic number. Composite Getty Image.

The Houston Texans have a chance to win a third straight AFC South title this season with quarterback C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans.

The challenge?

Nobody has won three straight titles since Peyton Manning was in his prime with the Indianapolis Colts in this division’s early years. The Tennessee Titans most recently came the closest only to come up short in 2022.

“I’m not really sure like what the next step is,” Houston general manager Nick Caserio said. “I mean we have a good football team, so we’ve been one of the best eight teams in the league the last two years. So what’s going to happen beyond that nobody has any idea.”

The Texans have advanced to two straight divisional rounds each of the past two postseasons, losing both with the most recent to Kansas City 23-14 in January. Caserio made a variety of moves to help Stroud, and coach DeMeco Ryans switched offensive coordinators as well.

Houston tight end Dalton Schultz said they just have to do one thing to get past the divisional round.

“It’s never the same as the year before, and there’s always some little wrinkle that is going to hit the league or hit your team,” Schultz said.

Houston went 10-7 in 2024 with the Colts at 8-9 with everyone working furiously to catch up — or else.

Indianapolis switched starting quarterbacks. Jacksonville hired a new coach and general manager before trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. Tennessee has No. 1 draft pick overall in Cam Ward starting at quarterback after firing and hiring a new general manager.

“This league is a year-to-year league and what do I feel is best for the Colts in 2025,” Colts coach Shane Steichen said.

Texans’ challenge

Houston has to protect Stroud better. Only Chicago’s Caleb Williams was sacked more than the 2024 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. With the pounding, Stroud’s production dipped as he was sacked 52 times with his interceptions more than doubling to 12 from his rookie season.

Stroud still threw for 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns. Ryans fired Bobby Slowik and hired Nick Caley as offensive coordinator.

“He comes from a different style than I’m used to, at least in the NFL,” Stroud said of Caley. “So, it’s cool just to learn something new and put another tool in my toolbox.”

Caserio traded five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington during the offseason to clear space to sign younger players. The Texans are expected to start a rookie at left tackle in second-round pick Aireontae Ersery with Tytus Howard at right tackle where he started 16 games last season.

Houston also acquired Christian Kirk, signed Justin Watson and drafted a pair of receivers out of Iowa State to provide depth behind Nico Collins after letting Stefon Diggs leave in free agency. Caserio also sent wide receiver John Metchie to Philadelphia for tight end Harrison Bryant on Aug. 17.

Hey Danny Dimes

Indianapolis has missed the playoffs the past four seasons, and a fifth straight could cost Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard their jobs with the late Jim Irsay’s daughters now running the franchise.

Going with Daniel Jones means the franchise who went two decades with Manning and Andrew Luck at quarterback will have yet another starter on opening day. Since 2017, only Anthony Richardson has started back-to-back season openers.

Yet the fourth overall pick in 2023 couldn’t stay healthy or help Jonathan Taylor nearly enough. Taylor ran for 1,431 yards and 11 TDs as Richardson completed just 47.7% of his throws, the lowest rate of any regular starter in the NFL.

Steichen said Richardson, 23, was thrown into the fire. The Colts coach isn’t ready to talk about Jones’ future.

“Let’s see how the season goes,” Steichen said.

Jacksonville’s youth movement

The biggest makeover came in Jacksonville, firing a Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson and GM Trent Baalke. The Jaguars hired Liam Coen as coach and James Gladstone, 34, as their new GM.

The Jaguars are trying to fix a team that went 3-10 in one-score games in 2024 with the franchise losers of 18 of its past 23.

In his first head coaching job, Coen, 39, has a pair of first-timers in offensive coordinator Grant Udinski and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. As coordinator in Tampa Bay, Coen became the first NFL coordinator in at least 25 years to help a team average more than 28 points a game.

He has Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, who was limited by injuries to 10 games in 2024. Wide receiver Brian Thomas now can get help from Hunter, even if the rookie will also play some defense.

Tennessee time

Brian Callahan also was a first-time head coach a year ago with the Titans. He brought in a former NFL head coach in Mike McCoy this offseason among a handful of other changes to apply his lessons learned.

Mike Borgonzi was hired as GM when Ran Carthon’s big offseason spending spree didn’t pan out. The Titans have embraced their rebuild even if they added veteran receivers Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson along with left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard Kevin Zeitler.

Predicted order of finish

Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville.

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome