THE PALLILOG

How mounting evidence suggests Cam Smith could be on fast track to Astros

How mounting evidence suggests Cam Smith could be on fast track to Astros
Hard to argue with the results. Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images.

As we barrel toward Opening Day which is now less than four weeks away, so far it’s been largely a case of no news is good news at Astros’ spring training. Meaning no major injuries to key players, no controversies brewing. There are numerous question marks that can’t truly be answered until we get into the games that count, such as how will Jose Altuve fare as a left fielder. The most exciting thing to happen over the first week of Grapefruit League games would probably be the two-home run game from top prospect Cam Smith, he of the Kyle Tucker trade. Both came off minor league caliber pitchers, but so what. Smith turned 22 years old last Saturday, the ideal is that he forces his way to the big leagues by the end of this season.

A strong majority of players who go on to greatness in Major League Baseball get to the big leagues before they turn 23. I spoke to this with Astros-specific perspective this week during an episode of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. The ten greatest offensive players in franchise history as measured by Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement metric are: Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jose Altuve, Lance Berkman, Cesar Cedeno, Jimmy Wynn, Jose Cruz, Alex Bregman, Joe Morgan, and Bob Watson. Eight of those ten debuted in the majors at 22 years old or younger. Cedeno was 19! Morgan and Watson were 20. Wynn and Altuve were 21. Biggio, Bagwell, and Bregman were 22. That leaves Cruz and Berkman as the exceptions. “Cheo” debuted with the Cardinals and didn’t get to the Astros’ organization until he was 27. Berkman arrived at 23. He should have been up sooner but was backlogged in 1998 behind a fabulous outfield of Moises Alou, Carl Everett, and Derek Bell, with youngster Richard Hidalgo as the top reserve, while first base was manned by Bagwell in the heart of his prime.

The point is, special talents should be fast-tracked and/or fast-track themselves to the Major Leagues. There are numerous exceptions (team mistakes, late bloomers), but a very high percentage of eventual big stars get to The Show at a young age. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Mike Trout entered at 19. Ronald Acuna Jr., Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Jose Ramirez did so at 20. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts, and Yordan Alvarez were 21. Not all tear it up immediately the way Yordan did upon his promotion in 2019, but rare tools and talents merit accelerated opportunity. The focus here is on hitters, but this isn’t a bad spot to note that among the four greatest pitchers ever to hurl for the Astros, only Randy Johnson was older than 22 when he started (25 as a notoriously raw and wild Montreal Expo). Nolan Ryan was a 19-year-old New York Met, Roger Clemens a 21-year-old Boston Red Sox, and Justin Verlander a 22-year-old Detroit Tiger.

This is not predicting mega-stardom or a plaque in Cooperstown for Cam Smith, but if the Astros have such a player in what is presently a lousy farm system overall, the odds overwhelmingly favor Smith being that guy. He should be ticketed for double-A Corpus Christi to start this season after having had just 96 at bats in single-A and 19 at AA in the Cubs’ system after being drafted last July. Should Smith excel with the Hooks, it’s not preposterous to see him getting to the Astros over the summer, especially given the shaky state of the big club’s outfield going into the 2025 campaign. Plenty of players have skipped over AAA. While Smith was drafted as a third baseman, unless the Astros grow offensively desperate enough to move Isaac Paredes to second base, Smith’s fastest path to Daikin Park right now might lead to right field. Coming off a relentlessly bad 2024, it’s make-or-break time for Chas McCormick. Chas is making three-point-four million dollars this season and turns 30 in April. If he is not a heckuva lot better this year, there is no way the Astros are bringing him back at an even bigger salary number in 2026.

Jacob Melton is another outfield prospect, but he’s already 24 years old and has yet to show any sort of elite hitting traits in the minors. Melton looms as a cheaper replacement for Jake Meyers in center.

Those who will ultimately be great only have time siphoned from their careers when not brought up as soon as reasonable. Of course there is risk of unfulfilled potential or straight up bust status. If early failure crushes a player, he wasn’t headed for greatness anyway.

On the upswing

Closing aside: a pinging endorsement for the Astros’ Annual College Classic Friday through Sunday. The reigning national champion Tennessee Volunteers and runner-up Texas A&M Aggies head the field. Rice, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, and Arizona fill out what is always an excellent six-team event. With gorgeous weather forecast through the weekend the roof should be open throughout. RIGHT?

The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!


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Jeremy Pena will look to stay hot against fireballer Paul Skenes. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.

The Houston Astros (32-27) travel to Pittsburgh to open a three-game series against the Pirates (22-38) on Tuesday night at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT, with Houston sending Lance McCullers Jr. to the mound opposite electric rookie Paul Skenes.

McCullers (0-1, 5.89 ERA) is still searching for rhythm in just his sixth start since returning to the rotation. The veteran right-hander will need sharper command against a Pirates lineup that’s shown signs of life over the past week. Pittsburgh counters with Skenes (4-5, 2.15 ERA), whose early MLB run has been dominant. With a 0.92 WHIP and 77 strikeouts in just nine starts, the top prospect has already made himself a must-watch arm.

Houston enters the series riding a 7-3 run over its last 10 games, powered by a .288 team batting average in that span. Despite being outscored by one run during that stretch, the Astros' offense has shown signs of clicking. Jose Altuve is on a tear, batting .385 with five home runs and eight RBIs over the last 10 games, while Jeremy Peña continues to lead the team with a .309 average and nine long balls on the season.

The Pirates have gone 5-5 in their last 10 and have been more competitive than their record suggests. They’ve outscored opponents by seven runs during that stretch while hitting .272 and posting a 3.89 ERA. Oneil Cruz remains the top power threat with 12 home runs, and Andrew McCutchen has turned in a strong week at the plate, going 13-for-37 with a pair of homers.

This is the first meeting between the two clubs this season. The Pirates are slight home favorites at -146 on the moneyline per BetMGM, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Houston, just 10-15 on the road, will be looking to set the tone early as they continue to chase down first-place Seattle in the AL West.

Injury update

The Astros informed The Athletic's Chandler Rome that Zach Dezenzo is dealing with a "capsule sprain" in his left hand, and they will undergo imaging on the hand again after two weeks of rest.

Here's a sneak peek at the Astros' lineup versus Skenes. Jacob Melton gets another start, this time playing left field. Altuve is getting the nod at second base with Yainer Diaz in the DH spot.

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