THE PALLILOG

Here's a realistic path for Houston Astros to snatch No. 1 seed from Yankees

Astros Jose Altuve, Yankees Aaron Judge
All systems go for the Astros!Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

10 days ago I noted that the Astros had finished an amazingly lengthy schedule stretch that would have needed to harden up to become powderpuff soft.
I Tweeted this:

Well, seven wins against just two losses later, whip up is what they did. Sweeping four games from the Mets in which the Mets never led at any point? Not exactly payback for older Astros' fans who remember 1986, but sweet nevertheless. Taking three of five from the Yankees in all compelling games looked like a fabulous precursor to a highly possible third Astros-Yankees American League Championship Series matchup in six years.

Despite their present 48-27 mark the Astros are still seven games behind the Yankees and their crazy 56-21 ledger. The Yanks are absolutely catchable though. Not because the Astros are the flat out better team, nothing indicates that. It's the schedule. There are four losing teams behind the Astros in the AL West. Behind the Yankees in the AL East, three winning teams (Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays). Even the woebegone for years Orioles are much improved, with the best last place record in Major League Baseball (as a reference point, the Orioles' record is 10 games better than AL West laughingstock Oakland). Over the coming dog days of summer the Yanks have the substantially higher intradivisional hurdles. The plot reeeeally thickens if the Astros sweep the doubleheader with the Yankees at Minute Maid Park slotted July 21 right out of the All-Star break. That's it for regular season matchups between them.

The Astros enter the weekend exactly as far ahead (seven games) of the AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins as they are behind the Yanks. That's a very strong position for the Astros to secure a bye past the best-of-three Wild Card Series. Remember, with the newly expanded postseason format byes go to the top two division winners in each league.

Now for the Astros it's back to a marshmallow opponents parade. They have 16 games remaining before the All-Star break, all vs. losers: six with the Angels, six with the A's, four with the Royals. Let's reasonably posit that the Astros successfully take out the trash more regularly than they did in the 34 game stretch. 12-4 is certainly plausible. That would get the Astros to 60 wins at the break with a record of 60-31, which would be on pace for a season total of 106.8 wins. Let's round up. 107 wins is the franchise record they set in 2019.

This team is outstanding, but still can use an offensive upgrade. The lineup just had its best month of the season but that didn't take a whole lot. Alex Bregman has finally perked up some. Yuli Gurriel, not so much. Martin Maldonado, pretty much unperkable. Heed this James Click: more potent lineups than the 2022 Astros came up short in the World Series in both 2019 and 2021.

Barring a huge second half of the season, Gurriel should not be in the Astros' 2023 plans. I'd say the same for Maldonado but he is on course to have a five million dollar option next year become guaranteed. He's played in 54 games this season, the option vests at 90. Ideally he's a backup. At the risk of some charging heresy, Maldonado's defensive imperativity (is that a word?) is overblown. Pitch-framing metrics do not rate him highly. He does not eliminate opposition running games. One, very few teams run much at all. Two, Maldonado has thrown out 26 percent of would be basestealers this season. Jason Castro has thrown out 25 percent. The big one last. With Maldonado behind the plate this season, Astros' pitchers' earned run average is 3.23. With Castro, 2.37. Would that hold up for Castro if he was the primary catcher? No chance. But sample size issues accepted, that Maldonado's defensive savant-ness renders his offensive ineptitude inconsequential? Nah. Certainly not in a lineup not up to recent past Astro teams.

Two weeks ago, this column covered Yordan Alvarez's chance at the greatest individual offensive month in Astros' history. Yordan's June ended with his scary collision with Jeremy Peña that knocked both out of Wednesday's matinée at the Mets and kept both out of Thursday's win over the Yankees. That was a harrowing smash as opposed to the delightful smashes that Alvarez busted out all over June. He finished batting .418 with an OPS of 1.346. Real and spectacular, but not quite ultimately as awesome as Jeff Bagwell's June or July 1994, or Richard Hidalgo's closing month of the 2000 season.

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
Vegas likes Houston. Composite Getty Image.

Bruce Bochy doesn’t ever want the Texas Rangers to let go of those memories of their first World Series title.

“We just don’t want to lean on them,” said Bochy, whose first season with the Rangers ended with the first World Series championship for the 63-year-old franchise, and his fourth as a big league manager.

While Texas has the opportunity to be the first team in a quarter-century to win back-to-back world championships — the New York Yankees were the last, with three in a row from 1998-2000 — the Rangers aren’t even defending champs in their own division.

And they aren’t favored to win the AL West this season.

Houston is again the odds-on favorite in the division it has won each of the last six full MLB seasons since the Rangers finished on top in 2016. The Astros won their regular season finale last Oct. 1, matched Texas at 90-72 and won the AL West since they were 9-4 head-to-head.

The Astros have made the AL Championship Series the past seven seasons, even when not division champs in the 2020 season shortened to 60 games because of the pandemic. They made four trips to the Fall Classic and won two titles in that span.

Dusty Baker retired days after Houston lost ALCS Game 7 at home to the Rangers last fall, finishing with 2,183 wins over 26 seasons as a big league manager with five teams.

New Astros manager Joe Espada, their bench coach for six seasons, is certainly familiar with a lineup that has big hitters Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, and a loaded starting rotation.

Espada isn't the division's only new manager. Ron Washington, who took the Rangers to their previous World Series in 2010 and 2011, was hired by the Angels, who still have Mike Trout but not two-way star Shohei Ohtani, now with the other team in Los Angeles.

Seattle again revamped its roster without big spending in free agency and hopes for a quicker return to the playoffs. The Mariners missed by one game last season, a year after its first postseason appearance since 2001.

And just like last year, the Athletics go into another season not knowing if it will be their last in Oakland.

HOW THEY PROJECT

1. Houston Astros. Three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, reacquired in a deadline trade last July, will start this season on the injured list. But the 41-year-old’s IL stint is expected to be a short one. The Astros still have lefty Framber Valdez (12-11, 2.45 ERA, 200 strikeouts and a no-hitter) and right-hander Cristian Javier. Eight-time All-Star second baseman Altuve signed a new $125 million, five-year contract that goes through 2029. But two-time All-Star third baseman Bregman, the only other position player to make all seven ALCS trips, is at the end of a $100 million deal.

2. Texas Rangers. After going from six losing seasons in a row to a World Series title, the Rangers should be playoff contenders again. They return ALCS MVP Adolis García and most of the lineup that hit 233 homers and scored an AL-high 5.4 runs per game. But World Series MVP and AL MVP runner-up shortstop Corey Seager (sports hernia), Gold Glove first baseman Nathaniel Lowe (oblique strain) and All-Star third baseman Josh Jung (calf) missed significant time in the spring. All-Star right-hander Nathan Eovaldi tops a rotation still missing injured multiple Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.

3. Seattle Mariners. The front office put together a roster that might be better than last year, but everybody has to stay healthy. Seattle should be better offensively with the additions of Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, Jorge Polanco and Luke Raley to go with young superstar Julio Rodriguez. If J.P. Crawford can replicate last season at the plate and Ty France returns to his 2021-22 form, the lineup will be deeper. Couple a better offense with one of the best rotations in baseball led by Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert, the Mariners should once again contend in the division.

4. Los Angeles Angels. They feel like they’re starting over yet again and still haven't been to the playoffs since 2014. Ohtani left after six seasons for a record $700 million with the perennially contending Dodgers. The Halos added almost nothing in free agency, only revamping their bullpen again and taking low-cost flyers on Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano. Trout and Anthony Rendon are back, and an open DH spot will allow them to rest their injury-prone bodies more regularly. Their rotation is last year’s group minus Ohtani. The 71-year-old Washington brings a unique blend of expertise and enthusiasm, which should benefit an exciting crop of young talent ready to break through in the majors.

5. Oakland Athletics. This could be the final season playing at the Coliseum with a lease set to expire. So the A's are still trying to figure out where they will play beyond this year with a new ballpark and move to Las Vegas scheduled for 2028. Manager Mark Kotsay has been committed to keeping his team focused on what it can do to be better on the field after two years with a combined 214 losses (112 last season). The A’s acquired Ross Stripling from the San Francisco Giants and added Alex Wood to the rotation.

OLD SKIPPERS

When the 74-year-old Baker retired, Bochy became the oldest manager in the majors. That lasted only a few weeks until the Angels hired Washington. Bochy will turn 69 on April 16, just 13 days before Washington turns 72. Bochy, with 2,093 wins going into his 27th season, is one of six managers with four World Series titles, his first three coming in San Francisco (2010, 2012 and 2014). Washington won a franchise-record 664 games in eight seasons with Texas from 2007-14. He was on Atlanta's staff the past seven years, and part of the Braves' 2021 World Series title.

RELIEF HELP

Several new relievers are in the AL West, including hard-throwing lefty Josh Hader with the Astros, veteran right-hander David Robertson and former All-Star closer Kirby Yates in Texas, Gregory Santos and Ryne Stanek in Seattle and Robert Stephenson with the Angels.

Hader's $95 million, five-year deal was the biggest after becoming a first-time free agent. The 29-year-old, once in the Astros' minor league system, turned down a $20,325,000 qualifying offer from San Diego.

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome