TURN BACK THE CLOCK

How a door could be open for a controversial return of Astros staff member

James Click and Dusty Baker aren't under contract next season. Could Jeff Luhnow return? Composite photo by Jack Brame.

The Houston Astros have seemed to be in a wait and see approach since the organization fired manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow in 2020 for the sign stealing scandal. The Astros hired Dusty Baker and James Click to replace both individuals.

Baker was given a one-year deal that had an option, which the Astros exercised to keep him in 2021. Houston then gave Baker a one-year extension for 2022. Click originally signed with the Astros under a multi-year deal, but now his contract is nearing its end and Houston will wait until after the 2022 season to make any decisions. Now the question arises, who is more likely to be back for Houston in 2023?

Under the leadership of both, Houston has continued to see the success it experienced under the old regime. While 2020 saw the Astros finish with a subpar 29-31 regular season record, the team made it to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series.

Houston followed it up in 2021 by getting to the World Series, the third time in five years, and 2022 sees the team sitting atop the AL with the best record by a decent margin with less than a month left in the regular season. The Astros are once again expected to make a deep postseason run.

Despite the success, however, fans and the Astros organization alike have never seemed to be sold on Baker. The short-term commitments to the skipper are the biggest signs that point in that direction.

From Click’s perspective, Houston gave a stronger vote of confidence in him from the start. Under Click, the Astros have seen franchise players in George Springer in 2021 and Carlos Correa in 2022 leave, but the team’s success hasn’t skipped a beat.

Click has also negotiated the extensions of Yordan Alvarez, Lance McCullers Jr., and brought back Justin Verlander. Most recently, he also made trade deadline deals that brought Trey Mancini, Christian Vázquez and left-handed pitcher Will Smith to bolster the team’s roster for the postseason run. Additionally, Houston has seen younger players rise like Framber Valdez, Jeremy Peña and now potentially Hunter Brown.

Ultimately, the market and postseason success will decide what direction owner Jim Crane goes in with Houston in the offseason. From a general manager’s perspective, the Astros could always bring back Luhnow, who oversaw the team from its rock bottom years of 100+ losses to the 2017 World Series Championship.

While the MLB world will certainly explode if the Astros brought back the old architect, eventually, the backlash would fade. There is certainly a precedent for it. Manager A.J. Hinch is back in the majors, now overseeing the Detroit Tigers, and the Boston Red Sox kept it straightforward, bringing back manger Alex Cora after only one year out of the league.

Is bringing Luhnow back realistic? Probably not for various reasons. The primary reason being that in a world where only one of either Baker or Click can return to the Astros, it would have to be Click because of how he has kept the roster deep and made acquisitions to keep the team in position to compete for championships.

Baker, while he has overseen two deep playoff runs, seems like he is one bad series away from giving the organization a reason to move in a different direction.

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Will Joe Mixon be the difference in the game? Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS

BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.

Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.

Series record: Texans lead 8-3.

Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.

Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.

Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).

Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).

Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).

Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).

Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.

Dolphins player to watch

QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.

Texans player to watch

QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.

Key matchup

Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.

Key injuries

Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.

Series notes

Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.

Stats and stuff

Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.

Fantasy tip

Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.

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