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How Astros now find themselves at crossroads of fan favorites, star power, and contendership

Houston Astros Kyle Tucker, Jose Abreu, Alex Bregman
Will the Astros have to pick between Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman? Photo by Scott Kane/Getty Images.
Here's a realistic path for Houston Astros to snatch division crown

The way the offseason is playing out, the Astros may be deep in thought between bankrolling their future on either Alex Bregman or Kyle Tucker.

But not both.

Bregman will be 30 when he’s eligible for free agency after next season. Tucker will be 28 when he’s eligible for free agency after two more seasons. Both will be seeking big-money, long-term contracts. Preferably now.

Plus there’s the matter of Jose Altuve becoming a free agent after next season, and there’s no way the Astros will let Altuve escape Houston.

Ideally, of course, the Astros would like to keep all three stars in Houston. But unless owner Jim Crane discovers (American League) West Texas Crude under second base, the team has some choices to make.

Last season, you remember general manager Dana Brown going on radio and giddy-swearing that Tucker will play his entire career in Houston. I wouldn’t put much faith in that promise. What did you expect Brown to say in the heat of a pennant race?

That’s the problem with baseball bookkeeping. Successful teams like the Astros have just so much money to keep their best players, and other teams are lining up with blank checks.

If you listen to sports talk radio and read online comments, the fans’ choice is to set Bregman free and keep Tucker and sign him long-term right now. Do not let him anywhere near free agency.

I’m thinking the other way around. I’m saying the Astros will extend Bregman soon and deal with Tucker later.

Let’s crunch the numbers.

Tucker clearly has the raw statistical edge over Bregman. Last year, Tucker hit more home runs, drove in more runs, and stole more bases. As Jerry Seinfeld would put it … “more everything!”

In fact, while Tucker is knocking on the door of superstardom, Bregman’s stats have been declining since 2019. Between 2017 (his first full season) and 2019, Bregman batted .286, .288 and .296. Since 2020, though, Bregman has batted .242, .270, .259 and .262.

Bregman is more a charmer, a face of the franchise, than Tucker. Bregman has a starring role in HEB commercials while Tucker barely gets a cameo. Bregman has a line of salsa. Tucker's personality leans toward white bread. Bregman is a boba fide two-sports star: baseball player and Breeders Cup racehorse owner.

There’s no getting around Tucker’s advantage at the plate. He hit .284, swatted 29 home runs, led the American League in RBI in 2023 and made the All-Star Game for the second year in a row.

If the Astros offer Bregman a long-term deal this offseason, which I am confident they will, and kick Tucker’s can down the road, would that agitate Tucker into wanting out when he’s a free agent? Tucker may already be holding a grudge against Astros management after losing his arbitration case last year. Tucker thought he was worth $7.5 million, the Astros offered $5 million. Arbitrators agreed with management over labor, and Tucker did not hide his displeasure.

Age may be the deciding factor who gets the big deal. Bregman might be satisfied with a five or six-year deal that could complete his career, at least his big money years, in the big leagues. That would make Bregman a lifelong Astros icon, joining Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell and most likely Jose Altuve. The Astros would like that.

But it’s possible the Astros could make a lowball, half-hearted effort to keep Bregman – like they did with Carlos Correa, Gerrit Cole, George Springer and, let’s not forget, Justin Verlander last season before the Mets self-destructed.

That would allow the Astros to offer an unprecedented seven or even eight-year contract to Tucker this offseason. Problem there, Tucker could still be in his prime when the contract expires, forcing the Astros to break their piggy bank yet again.

As general manager Brown put it, the Astros will be “creative” seeking free agents and extending contracts this offseason. That’s another way of saying the Astros will be clipping coupons, hoping not to make similar blunders as last season when they signed Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero to multiyear deals that backfired and spent $12 million for Michael Brantley to sit out most of the season with a shoulder injury.

Still, 2023 was a very good year for the Astros bottom line. The team drew more than 3 million fans. Astros tickets ain’t cheap. In fact, attending an Astros game at Minute Maid Park is the fourth most-expensive visit in all of baseball. Only the Dodgers, Red Sox and Padres charge more than the Astros.

So the Astros pinching pennies is harder to explain than crypto currency, the NBA’s in-season tournament and why anybody finds Pete Davidson funny.

But if Brown’s marching orders are to trim the fat while keeping the Astros competitive in 2024, 2025 and to infinity and beyond, the smart move might be to sign Bregman today and worry about Tucker tomorrow.

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