THE PALLILOG
Drama alert: all the intriguing backstories, stakes entering Astros-Twins matchup
May 9, 2022, 12:02 pm
The Astros head to Minnesota to play the Twins this Tuesday. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
With the Astros opening a series at Minnesota Tuesday the biggest subplot is obvious. Carlos Correa (hopefully) plays against the Astros for the first time. Correa took a pitch off the middle finger of his throwing hand last Thursday. The fear was a fractured finger but it turned out to be just a bruise. Correa sat out the Twins’ three games over the weekend. That along with their off day Monday may have Correa ready to go. You know he’s had this series highlighted on the calendar, though it presumably won’t pack the emotional wallop of his return to Minute Maid Park when the Twins visit in August.
During the handwringing and whining over the Astros’ failure to re-sign free agent Correa, there was plenty of nonsense out there. Anyone can disagree with the decision, but Jim Crane’s fiscal discipline was smart before Correa signed with Minnesota, and certainly looks good so far with rookie Jeremy Pena (it’s still early!) outperforming Correa and doing so at a shade under 1/50th the price. As Correa rakes in 35.1 million dollars in 2022, Pena makes the upgraded Major League minimum salary of 700-thousand. The Astros’ best offer to Correa of five years 160 million dollars was never insulting. That’s 32 mil per season. Correa only topped that by taking the shorter term Twins’ offer after Correa and agent Scott Boras’ misread the market. Before the lockout the Tigers offered 10 years 275 mil, simple math says that was well below the Astros’ per annum offer.
Anyone can get a finger or hand messed up when struck by a pitch, Jeff Bagwell suffered a broken hand three consecutive seasons. But the truth is that for all the indelible memories Correa carved into Astros’ lore, he was neither consistently healthy over his time here nor consistently great. In 2017 Correa looked like a blossomed superstar on an early Hall of Fame track. He may have battled Jose Altuve for American League Most Valuable Player honors, but missed six weeks after tearing a thumb ligament. When he went down, Correa’s OPS was higher than what Altuve finished with in winning MVP. Correa of course returned to help the Astros win the World Series, and looked like a 23-year-old franchise player. Alas, in 2018 he was mediocre and missed a chunk of the season with a back problem. In 2019 he was very good when healthy but missed half the season injured. Remember the rib-fracturing massage? And while excellent in 2019 over the 75 games he played, Correa was not as good as 2017 Correa much less what Altuve was in 2016 and 2017, or what Alex Bregman was in 2018 and 2019. In the shortened 2020 season Correa was mediocre, before having a well-timed outstanding 2021. The belief of many that Crane and the Astros should have been willing to go 10 years 300 mil was crazy. That the Rangers signed Corey Seager to a ridiculous 10 year 325 million deal did not mean the Astros should have buckled. Who’s a bigger fool: someone who spends like a drunken sailor, or someone who follows suit of that drunken sailor?
If their avalanche of injuries is a season long problem for the White Sox, the Twins could win the otherwise soft American League Central. A Correa and the Twins vs. the Astros in a playoff matchup would be something. The Twins have amazingly lost their last 18 postseason games, the longest postseason losing streak in North American sports history.
The Astros and Twins enter this series at Target Field with identical 18-11 records. The Astros roll north off running the table on their seven game homestand. Since they were 6-8 the Astros have gone 12-3. Since a stumbling start of 4-8, the Twins have gone 14-3. Pitching has been the strength of both clubs. That’s reflected in the series opening pitching matchup. Justin Verlander throws for the Stros, he’s been terrific over five starts in his return from Tommy John surgery to the tune of a 1.93 earned run average. Twins’ rookie Joe Ryan has been even better through his five starts with a 1.63 ERA.
A note from the author
It’s not quite an elephant in the room, but one paragraph on why you are reading me on SportsMap Houston but not hearing me on ESPN Houston 97.5 FM. Essentially, an outside consultant was given license to make some changes. Replacing me was one of his changes. I wasn’t pleased with how it went down, but life happens. Fortunately, having had some success long enough to not have to do anything I don’t want to do, I am happy to restart this SportsMap Houston column to share some sports thoughts (primarily Astros these next few months). Thanks for clicking/reading.
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How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
Apr 17, 2025, 5:21 pm
Major League Baseball’s regular season is 162 games long. You can think of 18 games as the first inning of the season, 18 times nine equaling 162. While the Astros 8-10 record is not good, it’s far from disastrous. Think of it as them being behind 1-0 after the first inning. It is pretty remarkable that they have yet to win consecutive games. Even during last year’s 7-19 stink bomb of a start the Astros twice managed to win two in a row.
The Astros’ offensive woes are plentiful. Oddly enough as impotent as they’ve been, the Astros have yet to be shutout. But in half their games they have scored exactly one or two runs. Basically, most of them stink thus far. Exemptions go to Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, but it’s not like either of them has been outstanding. It’s still early enough that one big series can dramatically alter the numbers, but the Astros badly need Yordan Alvarez to pick up his production. Yordan enters the weekend batting just .224 with a .695 OPS and just four extra base hits. Yainer rhymes with minor. As in minor leagues, where Diaz belongs at his current level of performance. That is not saying Diaz should be sent down, just that any random AAA catcher called up couldn’t have done much worse to this point. Diaz isn’t hitting Altuve’s weight, a woeful .130 with seven hits in 57 at bats. Diaz simply remains too undisciplined at the plate swinging at too many balls. He’s drawn three walks. And now to Christian Walker, who thus far has delivered return on investment for his three year 60 million dollar contract about as strong as the stock market’s performance in Tariff Time. Walker’s .154 batting average and .482 OPS are very Astro Jose Abreu-like. Walker’s23 strikeouts in 65 at bats jump off the page. He has often looked befuddled in the batter's box. Walker is definitely pressing and frustrated, wanting to perform better for his new team. Jeremy Pena goes into the weekend batting .215 and has one hit in 13 at bats with runners in scoring position. Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, and Chas McCormick all have weak stat lines, with little reason to expect quality offensive output from any of them. Cam Smith is at .200 with a yucky .591 OPS but he’s obviously a young stud work in progress thrown into the deep end of the pool.
All batting orders are top-heavy, the Astros’ on paper more so than many. As I set forth on one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week, the first inning should be a team’s best offensive inning. It’s the only frame in which a team gets to dictate who comes up from the start with the batters lined up just as the manager slots them. Add to that, the first inning is a good time to get to a starting pitcher before he settles in. The Astros have scored a pitiful three first inning runs in 18 games, and in two of the games they pushed one across in the first, it turned out to be the only Astro run of the game. Improvement needs to come internally from the big league roster. It’s not as if the Astros have a meaningful prospect at AAA Sugar Land who looks ready to help. Entering play Thursday the Space Cowboys’ team average was .186. Second base hopeful Brice Matthews is nowhere close, batting .180 and striking out left and right. Outfielder Jacob Melton opened three for 17 following the back injury-delayed start to his season.
As exasperating and boring as the offense has been for so many, grading needs to occur on a curve. So, while the Astros’ team batting average is a joke at .216, know that at close of business Wednesday the entire American League was batting just .232. The American League West-leading Texas Rangers scored eight fewer runs over their first 18 games than did the Astros, though that is skewed by the Astros’ one 14-run outburst against the Angels.
Familiar faces return
This weekend the Astros play host to the San Diego Padres at Daikin Park. The Friars are off to a fabulous start at 15-4. The Padres being here creates a mini reunion as both Martin Maldonado and Yuli Gurriel are on their roster. In a telling fact, Maldonado would have the third-highest batting average on the Astros if on the team with his current numbers. Maldonado is hitting .250 with seven hits in 28 at bats. The last season he finished above .200 was 2020. The only season in his career Maldonado topped .234 was his rookie season with a .266 mark in 2012.
Gurriel was last good in 2021 when he won the American League batting title at .319. He fell off a cliff from there, though perked up to have a fine postseason in the Astros’ 2022 run to World Series title number two. “La Pina” is batting .115 with just three hits in 26 at bats. Gurriel may be released soon, and approaching his 41st birthday June 9, that would probably be the end of the line. Short-timer Astro Jason Heyward is also on the Padres, and batting .190.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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