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Astros reloaded: Navigating the road ahead after revamping bullpen
Jan 23, 2024, 4:50 pm
Would the Astros trade a starting pitcher to fill another need? Composite Getty Image.
france javier brown
The Astros made another appearance in the ALCS this past season. We might as well rename it “The Astros Invitational” since they've appeared in the last seven. While the dynasty talk has been ongoing for a couple of years, so has the talk of said dynasty being over. People are wondering if the window is still open. Fans are left speculating what moves the team will make to keep the window open.
One of the biggest needs was addressed last week when the team signed reliever Josh Hader to a record-setting five year, $95 million dollar deal. What was once a question mark is now a strength. The frown was turned upside down, so to speak. With Hader in the fold, adding him to the mix with Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, and Bryan Abreu gives them options and weapons. They still have an embarrassment of riches at starter. So much so, I think they can (and should) use them to fetch other needs in trades. More on that later. So after shoring up the bullpen, what's next?
One of the first things some will say is extending some of their own guys. Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are the names brought up most, followed by Kyle Tucker. Bregman and Altuve are set to hit free agency since their contracts are both expiring after this season. I'm just about willing to bet my house that Altuve will be re-signed. He's the face of the franchise and on the Houston Sports Mount Rushmore. Bregman is a fan favorite, but let's be honest, he hasn't lived up to his own lofty expectations from past seasons. If I could single any one thing out, it's been his batting average. If he can get it back up to around .280 or above, I'd feel much better about bringing him back on the type of deal he may command.
Tucker is a different case. He has one more year of arbitration left before hitting true free agency. A left-handed outfielder with a full tool shed at only 27 years old could command upwards of $25-30 million a year on the open market. It'll cost the Astros $12 million this year from the arbitration. Next year, if no extension is reached, that could easily hit $15 million or more. It would behoove them to sign him to an extension before he keeps upping his price.
Extending Tucker is two-fold. They already need another bat in the outfield. Losing Tucker would be even harder to recover from. Yordan Alvarez should be their designated hitter and play limited outfield. In a perfect world, he could learn to play first base, but Jose Abreu is signed for this season and next. I'm willing to stand on business and say extending Tucker would be my priority over Bregman if it came down to the two of them. If they believe one of the guys on the roster currently, or in the minors, can step up and take that other spot, I'd be okay with that as well.
Some may look at the starting rotation and think they need to add a guy there. I'm of the opposite opinion. Not only am I fine with the starters, I'd be okay if they used some of them as trade bait to improve the lineup. Too many times this team couldn't score enough runs and come up with key hits last season. The starters were snake bitten by injuries over the last couple of seasons. Banking on guys returning healthy is a crapshoot, but that's a gamble I'm willing to take. This isn't MLB The Show where you can just make a starter a bullpen guy and he transitions easily. Dangling one of the starters, or more, out there for another bat would be ideal. You turn an abundance/strength in one area into the same thing in another area of need. It makes too much sense.
The Hader signing was something I wasn't expecting. We've heard so much about Dana Brown being the GM that spends wisely. We've also heard about Jim Crane wanting to stay under the luxury tax threshold. Signing Hader to that type of deal kind of broke the mold for both of those narratives. Is this the end of the big spending? I hope not. Would I be okay if it was? Yes, I would be. Why? Because this team was already good enough to make another ALCS run as constructed last season. They could stand pat and make yet another run this season with the moves they've made so far. But I want more! “Greed is good!”
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.