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Astros reloaded: Navigating the road ahead after revamping bullpen
Jan 23, 2024, 4:50 pm
Would the Astros trade a starting pitcher to fill another need? Composite Getty Image.
france javier brown
The Astros made another appearance in the ALCS this past season. We might as well rename it “The Astros Invitational” since they've appeared in the last seven. While the dynasty talk has been ongoing for a couple of years, so has the talk of said dynasty being over. People are wondering if the window is still open. Fans are left speculating what moves the team will make to keep the window open.
One of the biggest needs was addressed last week when the team signed reliever Josh Hader to a record-setting five year, $95 million dollar deal. What was once a question mark is now a strength. The frown was turned upside down, so to speak. With Hader in the fold, adding him to the mix with Ryan Pressly, Rafael Montero, and Bryan Abreu gives them options and weapons. They still have an embarrassment of riches at starter. So much so, I think they can (and should) use them to fetch other needs in trades. More on that later. So after shoring up the bullpen, what's next?
One of the first things some will say is extending some of their own guys. Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve are the names brought up most, followed by Kyle Tucker. Bregman and Altuve are set to hit free agency since their contracts are both expiring after this season. I'm just about willing to bet my house that Altuve will be re-signed. He's the face of the franchise and on the Houston Sports Mount Rushmore. Bregman is a fan favorite, but let's be honest, he hasn't lived up to his own lofty expectations from past seasons. If I could single any one thing out, it's been his batting average. If he can get it back up to around .280 or above, I'd feel much better about bringing him back on the type of deal he may command.
Tucker is a different case. He has one more year of arbitration left before hitting true free agency. A left-handed outfielder with a full tool shed at only 27 years old could command upwards of $25-30 million a year on the open market. It'll cost the Astros $12 million this year from the arbitration. Next year, if no extension is reached, that could easily hit $15 million or more. It would behoove them to sign him to an extension before he keeps upping his price.
Extending Tucker is two-fold. They already need another bat in the outfield. Losing Tucker would be even harder to recover from. Yordan Alvarez should be their designated hitter and play limited outfield. In a perfect world, he could learn to play first base, but Jose Abreu is signed for this season and next. I'm willing to stand on business and say extending Tucker would be my priority over Bregman if it came down to the two of them. If they believe one of the guys on the roster currently, or in the minors, can step up and take that other spot, I'd be okay with that as well.
Some may look at the starting rotation and think they need to add a guy there. I'm of the opposite opinion. Not only am I fine with the starters, I'd be okay if they used some of them as trade bait to improve the lineup. Too many times this team couldn't score enough runs and come up with key hits last season. The starters were snake bitten by injuries over the last couple of seasons. Banking on guys returning healthy is a crapshoot, but that's a gamble I'm willing to take. This isn't MLB The Show where you can just make a starter a bullpen guy and he transitions easily. Dangling one of the starters, or more, out there for another bat would be ideal. You turn an abundance/strength in one area into the same thing in another area of need. It makes too much sense.
The Hader signing was something I wasn't expecting. We've heard so much about Dana Brown being the GM that spends wisely. We've also heard about Jim Crane wanting to stay under the luxury tax threshold. Signing Hader to that type of deal kind of broke the mold for both of those narratives. Is this the end of the big spending? I hope not. Would I be okay if it was? Yes, I would be. Why? Because this team was already good enough to make another ALCS run as constructed last season. They could stand pat and make yet another run this season with the moves they've made so far. But I want more! “Greed is good!”
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
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