THE PALLILOG
Here’s a realistic path for this hot-hitting rookie to make Houston Astros roster
Mar 9, 2023, 5:37 pm
Justin Dirden has been impressive this spring. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
Less than three weeks to Opening Day. I’m not yet tingly, but getting there! Next week we get the NCAA Tournament as a delightful bridge to help us toward March 30. More on that next week. For now, Astros angles…
I find new General Manager Dana Brown’s general candor to date wonderfully refreshing. Be it contract negotiations, player development philosophy, or his need to not “blow the draft,” Brown conveys a confident, straight-shooting demeanor. We have to see how that holds up, but to this point he comes across impressively. Of course ultimately what matters is how the ballclub performs under his stewardship.
Brown getting a five-year contract done with Cristian Javier was nice, but it doesn’t mean it’s a failure if the Astros don’t get long term extensions done now with the more accomplished Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker. While any fan hand-wringing on the subject is understood, it’s just not a big deal with both Valdez and Tucker under team control for three more seasons. With Javier getting 64 million dollars over five years, would Framber take 80 over five (if offered)? The rumble re: Tucker is that he seeks a decade long deal. That would be talking in the 200 million dollar range. The Astros are understandably loath to going as long as 10 years.
World Baseball Classic
A dozen members of the Astros’ organization are off to play in the World Baseball Classic, including eight pitchers. Coming off a by far career-heaviest workload in 2022, Valdez wisely decided to honor the Astros’ request that he skip the WBC. Framber can root for his native Dominican Republic which without him is still loaded with key Astros’ pitchers. Javier, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu, and Rafael Montero all will wear the DR’s red, white and blue. So will Ronel Blanco. Jeremy Pena is one of the DR shortstops.
All the absences open up some additional spring training playing time for others, but with the Astros’ roster a pretty stacked deck, the additional playing time doesn’t give much chance for guys to deal their way on to the season opening 26 man roster. Martin Maldonado is with the Puerto Rican team, so Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz can split most of the catcher reps as they battle for the complementary catcher role. It’s more than a backup role since Maldonado shouldn’t start many more than 100 of the 162 games. It’s still very limited data to judge. Lee is thus far two for 10 with a double and a home run. Diaz is scuffling at one for 12. C.J. Stubbs has essentially no chance of getting the spot, but has impressed with five hits in 10 at bats. And if you’re wondering, yes, C.J. Stubbs is the brother of former Astros’ catching prospect Garrett Stubbs.
With the odds seemingly tipping toward Michael Brantley not quite being ready for Opening Day, the door is cracked open a little bit further for outfielder Justin Dirden. Presuming the Astros will start the season carrying 13 pitchers on the roster, the bench is four players with those spots seemingly already earmarked: the number two catcher, utility men Mauricio Dubon and David Hensley, and Jake Meyers. If Brantley opens the season on the injured list, Dirden could make the big league squad.
With Lance McCullers laid up again for who knows how long, additional opportunity and scrutiny go to rookie fifth starter Hunter Brown who had a negative outing this week. Brown failed to get an out after the first meeting, walking three batters in a row to start the second before getting the hook on Monday. No cause for alarm but a reminder that Brown had inconsistent command throughout his college and minor league careers. The Astros open the regular season playing eight consecutive days so they will need five starters the first time through. Brown’s first start should come in game number five, in which he'd face the Detroit Tigers who had an absolutely pathetic offense in 2022 and did nothing substantial to upgrade it in the offseason. Good luck A.J. Hinch. You'll need it.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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