WHAT'S NEXT?
Astros bitten by the dog days, now being dealt a lucky hand
Aug 23, 2022, 5:57 pm
Next year's schedule will look completely different. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
5 undeniable factors that will determine Houston Astros 2022 destiny
Lately the Astros have been putting the dog in the dog days of summer, blowing games they should have won, resting players in bunches, some missing time with unlucky injuries, others whiffing on pitches three feet off the plate (we’re looking at you, Jeremy Pena), and Dusty Baker filling out lineup cards by throwing darts at a wall.
Not to worry. The Astros are comfortably in first place, they have the best record in the American League, they’re leading their division by 11-1/2 and, most important, they’re not the Yankees. Feeling sorry for the Yankees who are sinking fast in the east? Nope.
While the Astros are playing lackluster ball heading into September, here comes Mr. Schedule Maker to save the day – and the season.
The Astros have 39 games left this season. That’s 13 series. They will play only one team that, if the season ended today, would be in MLB’s expanded playoffs.
There’s nothing wrong with the Astros that a schedule loaded with the Twins, Orioles, Rangers, Angels, Tigers, Diamondbacks and Phillies won’t cure. The only Astros opponent currently in the playoff picture is Tampa Bay. If the Astros can stay even half awake, they will waltz into the post-season with a first-round bye.
When the season ends, the Astros will have played the Rangers, Angels, Mariners, and A’s 19 games each. That’s 76 games, practically half the season, against divisional, well, we can’t really call them rivals. The Astros own the American League West.
The A’s have the worst record in the American League. Both the Angels and Rangers fired their managers during the season. The Mariners hold the distinction of being the team in America’s four major sports with the longest playoff drought. The last time the Mariners sniffed the post-season was 2021.
It’s a suck division, all right. What are the Astros even doing there? The Astros don’t have a despised nemesis in the AL West. Nobody gives a hoot about the Silver Boot non-rivalry with the Texas Rangers.
The Astros real arch enemy is the Yankees. Yankees fans despise the Astros. Astros fans relish victories over the New Yorkers, especially in the post-season.
If divisional play is supposed to create natural geographic rivalries, it’s not even close. Houston is closer to New York (1,628 miles) than to Oakland (1,914 miles) or Seattle (2,335 miles).
The Astros are eighth in MLB attendance this year, averaging 33,351 fans per game. The Dodgers are first, averaging 48,145. The Yankees are averaging 39,495. The Dodgers get to host the star-studded but troubled Padres and longtime foe Giants. The Yankees welcome the Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles (all with winning records) and their bitter enemy Red Sox.
Imagine the sold-out crowds at Minute Maid Park if the Dodgers or Yankees were in town on a consistent basis. And the Astros weren’t burdened with the Mariners, A’s, Angels and Rangers over and over.
Fortunately, Mr. Schedule Maker is reducing the number of games that teams play divisional opponents next year. The Astros will play AL West teams only 14 times, which will free up at least one series against every other MLB team.
So the Astros get to play the Dodgers and Yankees and Braves and Mets and Rays and Cardinals and Cubs every year from now on. And not so many against the distant A’s and Mariners. It’s about time … and geography.
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The Texans make just their third ever visit to Lambeau Field Sunday. It’s a dandy matchup as the Texans try to run their record to 6-1 at the expense of the 4-2 Green Bay Packers. The Texans have one win and one loss in Wisconsin. In 2008 the gameday high temperature was 13 degrees. Kris Brown kicked a 40 yard field goal as time expired to give the Texans a 24-21 win over a Packers team that struggled to a 6-10 record under first-year starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Texans posted their second consecutive 8-8 finish that year. In 2016 the mercury reached a balmy high of 34 degrees as the Texans fell 21-13 at Lambeau. Inexplicably, Rodgers somehow managed to win the quarterback matchup with Brock Osweiler. The Texans and Packers each won their division that year. Both Texans’ trips to “America’s Dairyland” occurred in December. No risk of frozen tundra this time around. The forecast for Green Bay Sunday calls for a high of 75 degrees! That’s almost 20 degrees warmer than normal there for October 20.
It’s a dynamic QB matchup with C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love sharing the field. Love broke out in a huge way in 2023 after serving a two-year apprenticeship under Rodgers. After a stumbling 3-6 start to their season the Packers went 6-2 the rest of the way to snag a playoff spot. They obliterated the Cowboys in a Wild Card game in Arlington (before everyone obliterated the Cowboys in Arlington...) then led at the 49ers with under 90 seconds to go before San Francisco scored to win 24-21. The Packers made crystal clear their belief in Love by signing him to a four-year 220 million dollar contract extension in July. That’s 55 mil per season. Stroud becomes extension-eligible after next season. Anyone think he won’t be in position to command at least 65 mil per season?
Stroud sure looks to be the guy to finally give the Texans the long-term stability and excellence they have never had at the most important position in the sport. The Pack is all in on Love continuing its unreal long-term QB stability and excellence. Love took the reins after Rodgers helmed the offense for 15 seasons. Rodgers took the reins after Brett Favre’s 16-year tenure. So if Love makes it for nine years as the starter, that’s three primary QBs in 40 years. Absolutely amazing.
After missing two games because of a sprained knee ligament suffered in the final seconds of the Packers’ season opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil, Love has thrown 10 touchdown passes in three games. But he has only completed 59 percent of his passes, and has thrown at least one interception per game.
The Texans’ first trip to the NFC North this season went brutally badly, the 34-7 beatdown from Minnesota. The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in week four of the season. That was Love’s first game back, he threw four touchdown passes and three picks. One defensive weapon the Texans will have against the Pack they did not have against the Vikes is Denico Autry. The 34-year-old Autry returns from his six-game banned substance suspension. That happens as one of the fill-ins for him, Mario Edwards, starts his own four-game substance abuse suspension. That should be a net improvement for the Texans.
X-factors
The single biggest variable in swinging the outcome of football games is turnovers. So far this season the Packers have been a takeaway machine. Last season the Packers generated just 18 turnovers over their 17 regular season games, only six teams took the ball away less often. Through just six games this season the Packers already have 17 takeaways. No other NFL team has more than 13, the Texans have just seven. The Packers have produced exactly three turnovers in five of their six games, and got two in the other. Every defense preaches turnovers, so it’s not as if first-year Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has introduced radical concepts that are yielding magical results. But the results are what they are.
If the Texans take care of the ball, they have a terrific chance to win. Having Joe Mixon back aids the cause on two fronts. One, Mixon is obviously the Texans’ best running back. Two, Mixon last fumbled in 2021. The Texans probably best plan to score 25 or more points to win this one because the Packers figure to score a bit. In Love’s four starts the Pack has lit the scoreboard for 29, 29, 24, and 34 points. On the other hand, the Texans’ D has been pretty stout, allowing the third-fewest yards per game (Green Bay rates 18th). It’s a strength vs. strength battle. The Texans have allowed no opponent more than 313 yards in total offense. The Packers have amassed at least 378 yards in five of their six games, and managed 328 in their worst performance.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!