THE PALLILOG
Here's how a curious formula restored order in AstroWorld
Apr 27, 2023, 1:29 pm
Mauricio Dubon has stepped up big for Houston. Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images.
So all it took to rouse the Astros into playing stellar baseball was competition that got their attention? It’s not that simple but taking two out of three from the Blue Jays followed by a three game sweep of the Braves in Atlanta and then winning two of three from the Rays in St. Petersburg sure seems to have order restored in Astroworld. A weekend rematch of last fall’s World Series vs. the Phillies should hold their attention.
Who saw this coming?
Raise your hand if you had Mauricio Dubon having a 20 game hitting streak this season. Hand down liars! The Astros have one Hall of Fame second baseman in Craig Biggio. They have a future Hall of Fame second baseman candidate in Jose Altuve. Dubon is probably bound for the Honduran Sports Hall of Fame if such a thing exists but Cooperstown will never be calling him. Nevertheless, Mauricio Dubon now has a longer hitting streak than Biggio ever compiled or than Altuve has yet to compile. That sounds ridiculous but sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. Biggio’s career best hitting streak was an 18 gamer in 2001. Altuve hit in 19 straight during his Most Valuable Player Award-winning 2017 season. The longest hitting streak by any Astros’ second baseman belongs to Jeff Kent, 25 games in 2004. Amazingly, Dubon is within striking distance. He is ten games away from the Astros’ franchise record hitting streak, the 30 game stretch posted by Willy Taveras in 2006. Funny thing about Taveras is he was a poor offensive player overall in 2006. He hit .278, but rarely walked (just 34 walks in 587 plate appearances), and had next to no power which added up to a weak .672 OPS.
Dubon has been terrific, but Altuve need not bone up on Wally Pipp. If unfamiliar, in 1925 Pipp was the Yankees’ starting first baseman who missed a game because of a headache and was replaced by Lou Gehrig. Gehrig next missed a game 14 years later. There is zero question that as soon as Altuve is ready to rejoin the Astros he reclaims his position and Dubon goes to the bench. Well, unless a month from now Dubon’s hitting streak is intact and making Joe DiMaggio spin a little in his grave.
Things continue to go poorly for the other half of the right side of the Astros’ infield. Jose Abreu drags a .554 OPS into the weekend. Frame of reference: Martin Maldonado had a .600 OPS last season, .573 in 2021. Maldonado has finished a season with an OPS worse than .554 just once in his career (.520 in 2013). Abreu’s extra base hits tally is a paltry four, all doubles. It’s still early, but less so by the day. Counting last season and this, Abreu has one home run in his last 80 games played. He has 104 at bats and drawn four walks.
Magnificent Maton
Back to the subject of unexpectedly outstanding Astros with a tip of the cap to Phil Maton. He was mediocre last year (though it was his best MLB season to date) and had his season end ignominiously with a broken hand incurred by punching a locker after a poor outing in the 162nd and final game of the regular season. He was not missed at all in the postseason. No higher than sixth in the bullpen pecking order coming into this season, Maton has been near perfect thus far. He’s made 10 appearances, pitched 11 2/3 innings giving up just two hits, walking just one while striking out 13. Earned run average: 0.00. Like Ryne Stanek in the Astros’ pen, Maton is a free agent after this season.
Pirates handing out the booty
The Pittsburgh Pirates gave outfielder Bryan Reynolds a seven year 100 million dollar contract extension this week. The Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s been widely reported as an eight-year extension, but that’s wrong. It’s seven years on top of the contract he already had for this season, plus a 20 million dollar option for 2031 that carries a two million dollar buyout. Reynolds is more than two years older than Kyle Tucker, and not as good. He could have become a free agent after the 2025 season, which is when Tucker can hit the open market. The Astros refusal to this point to consider longer than seven years for Tucker is increasingly questionable. Reynolds got 100 million new dollars guaranteed. A seven-year extension for Tucker would likely take at least 150 million. Astros’ revenues dwarf Pirates’ revenues.
Crunching the numbers
Amazing if not significant stat: Dating back to last August the Astros have now won their last 17 “getaway” games, meaning the last game of a series before travel required to get to the next series.
Amazing and not wholly insignificant stat: The Astros remain undefeated in games Maldonado wasn’t the catcher, now 7-0. Maldonado is batting .143 with a .440 OPS, and this week added his MLB-leading third passed ball of the season. Still small sample size, but the Astros’ team ERA is lower when Maldonado is not the catcher.
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
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