THE PALLILOG
Everything you need to know about Astros remaining playoff paths, opportunities
Aug 25, 2023, 10:35 am
The Astros open a series with Detroit on Friday night. Composite Getty Image.
How Rangers' big gamble could pay huge dividends for Astros
The Astros have off every remaining Thursday in the regular season. Perhaps they misread the schedule and thought Thursdays off began this week. It’s just one game and losing 17-1 counts the same as losing in extra innings (in which the Astros are 1-8 this season after blowing Wednesday’s game), but it was a latest reminder that the Astros’ superteam status is gone. It is laughable that some still espouse the notion that the Astros remain a great ball club.
They have already lost one more game than they did all last season in finishing 106-56. They are 9-1 this year vs. the helpless Athletics and 9-4 vs. their perennial stooge the Angels. Against everybody else the Astros are 54-52. The good news is that if the Astros get in the playoffs they are capable of an excellent month (as is any team that makes the playoffs) and winning another World Series. The bad news is that “if” has grown significantly. With a chance to basically put away the Mariners and Red Sox from making the playoffs at the Astros’ expense, the Astros’ 2-5 egg lay of a homestand has them in a serious battle to get into the postseason for a seventh consecutive year.
Winning the American League West remains the upside goal and it is there to be taken. The Astros enter the weekend just one game behind the staggering Texas Rangers (losers of seven straight), but if the Rangers hold on and win the West (or Seattle wins it), the Astros’ snaring one of the three AL Wild Cards is dicey. The Astros open the final weekend of August third in the Wild Card standings, six games behind the Tampa Bay Rays and percentage points back of the Mariners. If winning the division is ultimately not to happen for the Astros, the third Wild Card would be fine since it means drawing the champ of the feeble AL Central (probably Carlos Correa and the Twins) instead of the AL East runner-up, Rangers, or Mariners.
Problem is, the Astros are just a game and a half ahead of Toronto for fourth in the Wild Card Standings. Fourth means elimination. The Blue Jays next 15 games are against losing teams: three each vs. the Guardians, Nationals, Rockies, A’s, and Royals. With the Mariners’ next two series at home vs. the Royals and A’s, the Astros are probably at least temporarily dropping out of Wild Card position sooner than later. The Astros get a marshmallow soft schedule window in September over a 12 game stretch in which they get the Royals six times and the A’s three.
Remember, the Astros lose the tiebreaker to both the Blue Jays and Mariners. If they don’t win at least two out of three at Fenway next week, the Astros will also lose the tiebreaker to the Red Sox who are only three and a half games behind them. The Astros lead the Rangers 6-4 head-to-head with three games looming in Arlington starting Labor Day. Pedigree says the Astros get in, but pedigree doesn't always hold, or for instance the Astros don't win it all in 2017.
This weekend the Astros are in Detroit against A.J. Hinch’s Tigers. The Tigers are not good but they’re not absurdly bad. They are 9-6 over their last 15 games (the Astros are 7-8). The Tigers’ offense is poor and Framber Valdez badly needs to make it look that way as he starts the series opener. Framber comes off getting flambéed by Seattle. Framber getting flambéed has become all too frequent an occurrence. Over his last nine starts Valdez has a bloated 5.82 earned run average and that is including his no-hitter vs. Cleveland. Saturday Hunter Brown pitches in his hometown. Hitters have been right at home against Brown too often for too long. Since his fast start in April ended with a 2.37 ERA, Brown’s ERA is 5.16. Over six starts since the All-Star break it’s 5.91. At least Justin Verlander goes Sunday coming off of his best start since rejoining the Astros. The Astros not taking at least two out of three would feel ominous and be problematic, though not quite catastrophic.
Some quick-fire stuff…
As the Astros’ starting rotation continues to be a huge problem, did you know that over his last three starts Charlie Morton has pitched 18 scoreless innings for the Atlanta Braves? When the Astros signed Morton before the 2017 season his career record was 46 wins and 71 losses. Since then he is a spectacular 83-40 (“Ground Chuck” went 29-10 in his two seasons as a ‘Stro). After Thursday’s Beantown beatdown of J.P. France, the 39-year-old Morton’s 3.37 earned run average is better than anyone has in the Astros’ rotation (Verlander is at 3.38 in four starts). Morton has a 20 million dollar salary this season. Lance McCullers is making 17 mil to be part-owner of a coffee bar at Minute Maid Park. That’s the way the biscotti crumbles sometimes.
Yordan Alvarez has gone 14 games played, 53 at bats, and one slamming his own finger in a door since his last home run.
Jeremy Pena last homered July 5. That’s 151 at bats without one.
You think as Martin Maldonado was getting knocked around while pitching the ninth inning of Thursday’s debacle he was thinking “Man, I wish I got to pitch to Martin Maldonado.”?
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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